Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Aurinia Pharmaceuticals Inc. (AUPH)

$10.99

+0.17 (+1.57%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: -100,662,598,265.49 | 10.99 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 0.460.3250.1245.60134.035,432.89220,221.448,926,647.66361,840,509.7914,667,158,321.92
Revenue (%)
EBITDA -60.25-122.12-99.89-176.92-98.53-565,826.85-22,935,718.35-929,696,380.38-37,685,122,680.70-1,527,561,579,697.94
EBITDA (%)
EBIT -61.81-123.66-101.26-179.68-101.23-574,906.45-23,303,758.62-944,614,845.15-38,289,840,722.86-1,552,073,747,419.36
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 1.571.551.372.762.719,079.60368,040.2714,918,464.77604,718,042.1624,512,167,721.42
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Total Cash 125.86306.02398.33466.08389.391,363,898.5355,285,450.922,240,988,611.2490,838,183,865.903,682,114,048,527.85
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 0.220.371.0215.4113.482,265.3191,824.123,722,078.93150,873,988.706,115,657,641.89
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories --13.9319.3324.751,605.1165,062.852,637,314.40106,903,198.704,333,307,349.37
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 2.954.152.633.883.0921,290.47863,006.5634,981,859.601,417,985,159.8257,477,845,278.13
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -0.07-0.10-7.34-1.50-0.29-728.70-29,537.73-1,197,307.95-48,532,723.17-1,967,267,664.44
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 10.99
Beta 1.160
Diluted Shares Outstanding 141.91
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate -1.72
After-tax Cost of Debt 63.28%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 9.039
Total Debt 8.09
Total Equity 1,559.65
Total Capital 1,567.73
Debt Weighting 0.52
Equity Weighting 99.48
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 0.460.3250.1245.60134.035,432.89220,221.448,926,647.66361,840,509.7914,667,158,321.92
EBITDA -60.25-122.12-99.89-176.92-98.53-565,826.85-22,935,718.35-929,696,380.38-37,685,122,680.70-1,527,561,579,697.94
EBIT -61.81-123.66-101.26-179.68-101.23-574,906.45-23,303,758.62-944,614,845.15-38,289,840,722.86-1,552,073,747,419.36
Tax Rate -0.11%-0.12%0.09%-0.42%-1.72%-0.46%-0.46%-0.46%-0.46%-0.46%
EBIAT -61.88-123.81-101.17-180.43-102.97-577,527.43-23,409,999.75-948,921,315.61-38,464,402,946.50-1,559,149,604,604.79
Depreciation 1.571.551.372.762.719,079.60368,040.2714,918,464.77604,718,042.1624,512,167,721.42
Accounts Receivable --0.15-0.65-14.401.93-2,251.83-89,558.81-3,630,254.81-147,151,909.76-5,964,783,653.19
Inventories ----5.40-5.43-1,580.36-63,457.75-2,572,251.55-104,265,884.29-4,226,404,150.68
Accounts Payable -1.20-1.521.24-0.7921,287.39841,716.0934,118,853.031,383,003,300.2356,059,860,118.31
Capital Expenditure -0.07-0.10-7.34-1.50-0.29-728.70-29,537.73-1,197,307.95-48,532,723.17-1,967,267,664.44
UFCF -60.39-121.31-109.31-197.73-104.85-551,721.33-22,382,797.67-907,283,812.12-36,776,632,121.34-1,490,736,032,233.36
WACC
PV UFCF -504,684.72-18,729,022.99-694,455,294.24-25,749,776,475-954,778,506,273.18
SUM PV UFCF -981,241,971,750.13

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 9.32
Free cash flow (t + 1) -1,520,550,752,878.03
Terminal Value -20,772,551,268,825.51
Present Value of Terminal Value -13,304,290,661,183.65

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value -14,285,532,632,933.78
Net Debt -86.08
Equity Value -14,285,532,632,847.69
Shares Outstanding 141.91
Equity Value Per Share -100,662,598,265.49