Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Yamana Gold Inc. (AUY)

$5.85

-0.04 (-0.68%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 3.47 | 5.85 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 1,798.501,612.201,5611,815.401,807.101,817.521,827.991,838.531,849.131,859.79
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 646.10682.90792.80949787.10817.52822.24826.98831.74836.54
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 85504.20680.30650.60320.30483.98486.77489.58492.40495.24
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 561.10178.70112.50298.40466.80333.54335.47337.40339.34341.30
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Total Cash 105.90167.30665.50552383.10401.69404406.33408.67411.03
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 24.303.404.2033.808.028.078.118.168.21
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 181133.40152.10167.20209.20177.64178.66179.69180.73181.77
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 221.30153.90154.20173.10209.10192.06193.16194.28195.40196.52
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -446.90-331.70-273.70-384.60-504.80-407.40-409.75-412.11-414.49-416.88
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 5.85
Beta 1.269
Diluted Shares Outstanding 960.70
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 22.24
After-tax Cost of Debt 4.95%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 10.245
Total Debt 774.30
Total Equity 5,620.10
Total Capital 6,394.40
Debt Weighting 12.11
Equity Weighting 87.89
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 1,798.501,612.201,5611,815.401,807.101,817.521,827.991,838.531,849.131,859.79
EBITDA 646.10682.90792.80949787.10817.52822.24826.98831.74836.54
EBIT 85504.20680.30650.60320.30483.98486.77489.58492.40495.24
Tax Rate -68.48%27.30%58.46%76.91%22.24%23.28%23.28%23.28%23.28%23.28%
EBIAT 143.21366.57282.61150.26249.08371.29373.43375.59377.75379.93
Depreciation 561.10178.70112.50298.40466.80333.54335.47337.40339.34341.30
Accounts Receivable -20.90-0.801.20-0.80-4.22-0.05-0.05-0.05-0.05
Inventories -47.60-18.70-15.10-4231.56-1.02-1.03-1.04-1.04
Accounts Payable --67.400.3018.9036-17.041.111.111.121.13
Capital Expenditure -446.90-331.70-273.70-384.60-504.80-407.40-409.75-412.11-414.49-416.88
UFCF 257.41214.67102.2169.06204.28307.73299.19300.91302.65304.39
WACC
PV UFCF 280.78249.07228.56209.75192.48
SUM PV UFCF 1,160.64

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 9.60
Free cash flow (t + 1) 310.48
Terminal Value 4,085.26
Present Value of Terminal Value 2,583.25

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 3,743.89
Net Debt 407.80
Equity Value 3,336.09
Shares Outstanding 960.70
Equity Value Per Share 3.47