Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Yamana Gold Inc. (AUY)
$5.85
-0.04 (-0.68%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 1,798.50 | 1,612.20 | 1,561 | 1,815.40 | 1,807.10 | 1,817.52 | 1,827.99 | 1,838.53 | 1,849.13 | 1,859.79 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| EBITDA | 646.10 | 682.90 | 792.80 | 949 | 787.10 | 817.52 | 822.24 | 826.98 | 831.74 | 836.54 |
| EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
| EBIT | 85 | 504.20 | 680.30 | 650.60 | 320.30 | 483.98 | 486.77 | 489.58 | 492.40 | 495.24 |
| EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
| Depreciation | 561.10 | 178.70 | 112.50 | 298.40 | 466.80 | 333.54 | 335.47 | 337.40 | 339.34 | 341.30 |
| Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Total Cash | 105.90 | 167.30 | 665.50 | 552 | 383.10 | 401.69 | 404 | 406.33 | 408.67 | 411.03 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
| Account Receivables | 24.30 | 3.40 | 4.20 | 3 | 3.80 | 8.02 | 8.07 | 8.11 | 8.16 | 8.21 |
| Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
| Inventories | 181 | 133.40 | 152.10 | 167.20 | 209.20 | 177.64 | 178.66 | 179.69 | 180.73 | 181.77 |
| Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
| Accounts Payable | 221.30 | 153.90 | 154.20 | 173.10 | 209.10 | 192.06 | 193.16 | 194.28 | 195.40 | 196.52 |
| Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -446.90 | -331.70 | -273.70 | -384.60 | -504.80 | -407.40 | -409.75 | -412.11 | -414.49 | -416.88 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 5.85 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 1.269 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 960.70 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | 22.24 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 4.95% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 10.245 |
| Total Debt | 774.30 |
| Total Equity | 5,620.10 |
| Total Capital | 6,394.40 |
| Debt Weighting | 12.11 |
| Equity Weighting | 87.89 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 1,798.50 | 1,612.20 | 1,561 | 1,815.40 | 1,807.10 | 1,817.52 | 1,827.99 | 1,838.53 | 1,849.13 | 1,859.79 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | 646.10 | 682.90 | 792.80 | 949 | 787.10 | 817.52 | 822.24 | 826.98 | 831.74 | 836.54 |
| EBIT | 85 | 504.20 | 680.30 | 650.60 | 320.30 | 483.98 | 486.77 | 489.58 | 492.40 | 495.24 |
| Tax Rate | -68.48% | 27.30% | 58.46% | 76.91% | 22.24% | 23.28% | 23.28% | 23.28% | 23.28% | 23.28% |
| EBIAT | 143.21 | 366.57 | 282.61 | 150.26 | 249.08 | 371.29 | 373.43 | 375.59 | 377.75 | 379.93 |
| Depreciation | 561.10 | 178.70 | 112.50 | 298.40 | 466.80 | 333.54 | 335.47 | 337.40 | 339.34 | 341.30 |
| Accounts Receivable | - | 20.90 | -0.80 | 1.20 | -0.80 | -4.22 | -0.05 | -0.05 | -0.05 | -0.05 |
| Inventories | - | 47.60 | -18.70 | -15.10 | -42 | 31.56 | -1.02 | -1.03 | -1.04 | -1.04 |
| Accounts Payable | - | -67.40 | 0.30 | 18.90 | 36 | -17.04 | 1.11 | 1.11 | 1.12 | 1.13 |
| Capital Expenditure | -446.90 | -331.70 | -273.70 | -384.60 | -504.80 | -407.40 | -409.75 | -412.11 | -414.49 | -416.88 |
| UFCF | 257.41 | 214.67 | 102.21 | 69.06 | 204.28 | 307.73 | 299.19 | 300.91 | 302.65 | 304.39 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV UFCF | 280.78 | 249.07 | 228.56 | 209.75 | 192.48 | |||||
| SUM PV UFCF | 1,160.64 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 9.60 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | 310.48 |
| Terminal Value | 4,085.26 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | 2,583.25 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | 3,743.89 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | 407.80 |
| Equity Value | 3,336.09 |
| Shares Outstanding | 960.70 |
| Equity Value Per Share | 3.47 |