Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
American Vanguard Corporation (AVD)
$18.2523
+0.37 (+2.08%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected | 2028 Projected |
| Revenue | 468.19 | 458.70 | 556.87 | 609.62 | 668.23 | 732.49 | 802.92 | 880.13 | 964.76 | 1,057.53 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| EBITDA | 44.15 | 43.17 | 52.37 | 61.94 | 64.16 | 70.33 | 77.09 | 84.51 | 92.63 | 101.54 |
| EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
| EBIT | 25.51 | 23.27 | 30.14 | 39.80 | 37.52 | 41.13 | 45.09 | 49.42 | 54.18 | 59.39 |
| EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
| Depreciation | 18.64 | 19.90 | 22.23 | 22.14 | 26.64 | 29.20 | 32 | 35.08 | 38.46 | 42.15 |
| Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Actual | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected | 2028 Projected |
| Total Cash | 6.58 | 15.92 | 16.28 | 20.33 | 19.57 | 20.60 | 22.58 | 24.76 | 27.14 | 29.75 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
| Account Receivables | 155.85 | 141.52 | 158.92 | 168.20 | 181 | 215.87 | 236.63 | 259.38 | 284.32 | 311.66 |
| Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
| Inventories | 163.31 | 163.78 | 154.31 | 184.19 | 219.08 | 236.30 | 259.02 | 283.92 | 311.23 | 341.15 |
| Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
| Accounts Payable | 64.88 | 59.25 | 67.14 | 69 | 74.89 | 89.89 | 98.53 | 108.01 | 118.39 | 129.77 |
| Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -12.98 | -15.26 | -10.04 | -14.55 | -17.19 | -18.85 | -20.66 | -22.64 | -24.82 | -27.21 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 18.2,523 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 0.934 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 29.87 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | 23.80 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 3.81% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 8.197 |
| Total Debt | 121.98 |
| Total Equity | 545.23 |
| Total Capital | 667.21 |
| Debt Weighting | 18.28 |
| Equity Weighting | 81.72 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected | 2028 Projected |
| Revenue | 468.19 | 458.70 | 556.87 | 609.62 | 668.23 | 732.49 | 802.92 | 880.13 | 964.76 | 1,057.53 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | 44.15 | 43.17 | 52.37 | 61.94 | 64.16 | 70.33 | 77.09 | 84.51 | 92.63 | 101.54 |
| EBIT | 25.51 | 23.27 | 30.14 | 39.80 | 37.52 | 41.13 | 45.09 | 49.42 | 54.18 | 59.39 |
| Tax Rate | 28.46% | 17.37% | 31.52% | 23.80% | 25.29% | 25.29% | 25.29% | 25.29% | 25.29% | 25.29% |
| EBIAT | 18.25 | 19.22 | 20.64 | 30.32 | 28.04 | 30.73 | 33.69 | 36.92 | 40.48 | 44.37 |
| Depreciation | 18.64 | 19.90 | 22.23 | 22.14 | 26.64 | 29.20 | 32 | 35.08 | 38.46 | 42.15 |
| Accounts Receivable | - | 14.33 | -17.40 | -9.28 | -12.80 | -34.87 | -20.76 | -22.75 | -24.94 | -27.34 |
| Inventories | - | -0.47 | 9.48 | -29.88 | -34.89 | -17.22 | -22.72 | -24.91 | -27.30 | -29.93 |
| Accounts Payable | - | -5.63 | 7.89 | 1.86 | 5.89 | 15 | 8.64 | 9.47 | 10.39 | 11.38 |
| Capital Expenditure | -12.98 | -15.26 | -10.04 | -14.55 | -17.19 | -18.85 | -20.66 | -22.64 | -24.82 | -27.21 |
| UFCF | 23.91 | 32.09 | 32.79 | 0.61 | -4.32 | 3.99 | 10.20 | 11.18 | 12.25 | 13.43 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV UFCF | -4.32 | 3.72 | 8.84 | 9.02 | 9.21 | 9.40 | ||||
| SUM PV UFCF | 40.18 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 7.40 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | 13.70 |
| Terminal Value | 253.66 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | 177.51 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | 217.70 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | 102.41 |
| Equity Value | 115.28 |
| Shares Outstanding | 29.87 |
| Equity Value Per Share | 3.86 |