Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Avalara, Inc. (AVLR)

$92.1

-0.15 (-0.16%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: -109.81 | 92.1 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 213.16272.10382.42500.57698.98941.391,267.891,707.612,299.843,097.46
Revenue (%)
EBITDA -51.90-61.12-33.16-37.26-83.09-140.85-189.71-255.50-344.11-463.45
EBITDA (%)
EBIT -62.76-73.92-48.97-57.49-119.61-184.54-248.54-334.73-450.82-607.18
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 10.8612.8015.8120.2336.5343.6858.8379.23106.71143.72
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 14.07142.32466.95673.591,514.061,0021,349.511,817.542,447.903,296.87
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 26.9140.5652.0676.42115.72137.38185.02249.19335.62452.02
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories ----------
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 9.824.8511.6920.2816.6829.9140.2854.2573.0798.41
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -13.95-20.48-10.32-9.86-23.32-41.57-55.99-75.41-101.56-136.78
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 92.1
Beta 1.041
Diluted Shares Outstanding 86.26
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate -2.71
After-tax Cost of Debt 0.23%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 8.611
Total Debt 1,018.33
Total Equity 7,944.82
Total Capital 8,963.15
Debt Weighting 11.36
Equity Weighting 88.64
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 213.16272.10382.42500.57698.98941.391,267.891,707.612,299.843,097.46
EBITDA -51.90-61.12-33.16-37.26-83.09-140.85-189.71-255.50-344.11-463.45
EBIT -62.76-73.92-48.97-57.49-119.61-184.54-248.54-334.73-450.82-607.18
Tax Rate 1.87%1.28%-1.94%14.45%-2.71%2.59%2.59%2.59%2.59%2.59%
EBIAT -61.59-72.98-49.92-49.18-122.86-179.76-242.10-326.07-439.16-591.46
Depreciation 10.8612.8015.8120.2336.5343.6858.8379.23106.71143.72
Accounts Receivable --13.65-11.51-24.36-39.30-21.66-47.65-64.17-86.42-116.40
Inventories ----------
Accounts Payable --4.986.858.59-3.6013.2310.3713.9718.8225.34
Capital Expenditure -13.96-20.48-10.32-9.86-23.32-41.57-55.99-75.41-101.56-136.78
UFCF -64.69-99.28-49.09-54.58-152.55-186.08-276.54-372.44-501.61-675.58
WACC
PV UFCF -172.84-238.58-298.47-373.38-467.09
SUM PV UFCF -1,550.37

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 7.66
Free cash flow (t + 1) -689.09
Terminal Value -12,174.77
Present Value of Terminal Value -8,417.61

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value -9,967.98
Net Debt -495.74
Equity Value -9,472.24
Shares Outstanding 86.26
Equity Value Per Share -109.81