Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Axos Financial, Inc. (AX)

$37.31

+1.30 (+3.61%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 96.97 | 37.31 | undervalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Actual
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
2028
Projected
Revenue 488.54572.39632.85705.34890.181,035.691,204.991,401.961,631.131,897.76
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 385.56280.78340.47428.02455.13608.12707.53823.19957.751,114.31
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 369.09262.63305.74392.53431.74567.34660.08767.99893.521,039.58
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 16.4718.1434.7235.4923.3940.7847.4555.2064.2374.72
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Actual
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
2028
Projected
Total Cash 738.641,944.10902.961,465.102,465.382,316.202,694.823,135.323,647.844,244.13
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 203.19220.27369.81471.86374.07512.52596.30693.78807.18939.13
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories ----------
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 338.23550.13744.99829.07696.59991.891,154.031,342.681,562.161,817.52
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -20.08-12.33-10.44-21.50-30.22-29.74-34.60-40.26-46.84-54.49
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 37.31
Beta 1.492
Diluted Shares Outstanding 60.58
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 28.85
After-tax Cost of Debt 58.90%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 11.638
Total Debt 451.78
Total Equity 2,260.42
Total Capital 2,712.20
Debt Weighting 16.66
Equity Weighting 83.34
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Actual
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
2028
Projected
Revenue 488.54572.39632.85705.34890.181,035.691,204.991,401.961,631.131,897.76
EBITDA 385.56280.78340.47428.02455.13608.12707.53823.19957.751,114.31
EBIT 369.09262.63305.74392.53431.74567.34660.08767.99893.521,039.58
Tax Rate 27.10%30.15%29.45%29.19%28.85%28.95%28.95%28.95%28.95%28.95%
EBIAT 269.06183.44215.71277.94307.17403.10468.99545.65634.85738.62
Depreciation 16.4718.1434.7235.4923.3940.7847.4555.2064.2374.72
Accounts Receivable --17.07-149.55-102.0497.78-138.45-83.78-97.47-113.41-131.95
Inventories ----------
Accounts Payable -211.90194.8684.08-132.48295.30162.14188.64219.48255.36
Capital Expenditure -20.08-12.33-10.44-21.50-30.21-29.74-34.60-40.26-46.84-54.49
UFCF 265.45384.07285.30273.97265.64570.99560.19651.77758.31882.26
WACC
PV UFCF 477.78392.22381.84371.73361.89
SUM PV UFCF 1,985.45

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 19.51
Free cash flow (t + 1) 899.91
Terminal Value 5,139.39
Present Value of Terminal Value 2,108.10

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 4,093.55
Net Debt -1,781.25
Equity Value 5,874.80
Shares Outstanding 60.58
Equity Value Per Share 96.97