Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Axos Financial, Inc. (AX)

$37.82

-2.92 (-7.17%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 138.48 | 37.82 | undervalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 439.44488.54572.39632.85705.34794.13894.101,006.661,133.381,276.06
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 354.85385.56442.85419.59428.02578.17650.95732.90825.16929.03
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 346.28369.09407.86384.86392.53543.30611.69688.70775.39873.01
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 8.5716.4734.9934.7235.4934.8739.2644.2049.7656.03
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Total Cash 803.06738.641,944.10902.961,465.101,626.361,831.092,061.602,321.132,613.33
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 26.73203.19220.27369.82417.42323.64364.39410.26461.90520.05
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories ----------
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 82.09338.23550.13744.99774.63653.67735.96828.61932.921,050.37
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -11.82-20.08-12.33-10.44-21.50-21.68-24.41-27.49-30.95-34.84
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 37.82
Beta 1.451
Diluted Shares Outstanding 60.52
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 29.19
After-tax Cost of Debt 6.61%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 10.452
Total Debt 562.74
Total Equity 2,288.85
Total Capital 2,851.60
Debt Weighting 19.73
Equity Weighting 80.27
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 439.44488.54572.39632.85705.34794.13894.101,006.661,133.381,276.06
EBITDA 354.85385.56442.85419.59428.02578.17650.95732.90825.16929.03
EBIT 346.28369.09407.86384.86392.53543.30611.69688.70775.39873.01
Tax Rate 36.42%27.10%30.15%29.45%29.19%30.46%30.46%30.46%30.46%30.46%
EBIAT 220.18269.06284.87271.53277.94377.80425.36478.90539.19607.07
Depreciation 8.5716.4734.9934.7235.4934.8739.2644.2049.7656.03
Accounts Receivable --176.46-17.07-149.55-47.6093.77-40.74-45.87-51.65-58.15
Inventories ----------
Accounts Payable -256.14211.90194.8629.64-120.9582.2992.65104.31117.44
Capital Expenditure -11.82-20.08-12.33-10.44-21.50-21.68-24.41-27.49-30.95-34.84
UFCF 216.94345.12502.35341.12273.97363.80481.75542.39610.67687.55
WACC
PV UFCF 331.66400.39410.97421.83432.98
SUM PV UFCF 1,997.84

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 9.69
Free cash flow (t + 1) 701.30
Terminal Value 9,119.62
Present Value of Terminal Value 5,743.04

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 7,740.88
Net Debt -639.84
Equity Value 8,380.72
Shares Outstanding 60.52
Equity Value Per Share 138.48