Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Axos Financial, Inc. (AX)
$37.31
+1.30 (+3.61%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Actual | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected | 2028 Projected |
| Revenue | 488.54 | 572.39 | 632.85 | 705.34 | 890.18 | 1,035.69 | 1,204.99 | 1,401.96 | 1,631.13 | 1,897.76 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| EBITDA | 385.56 | 280.78 | 340.47 | 428.02 | 455.13 | 608.12 | 707.53 | 823.19 | 957.75 | 1,114.31 |
| EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
| EBIT | 369.09 | 262.63 | 305.74 | 392.53 | 431.74 | 567.34 | 660.08 | 767.99 | 893.52 | 1,039.58 |
| EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
| Depreciation | 16.47 | 18.14 | 34.72 | 35.49 | 23.39 | 40.78 | 47.45 | 55.20 | 64.23 | 74.72 |
| Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Actual | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected | 2028 Projected |
| Total Cash | 738.64 | 1,944.10 | 902.96 | 1,465.10 | 2,465.38 | 2,316.20 | 2,694.82 | 3,135.32 | 3,647.84 | 4,244.13 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
| Account Receivables | 203.19 | 220.27 | 369.81 | 471.86 | 374.07 | 512.52 | 596.30 | 693.78 | 807.18 | 939.13 |
| Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
| Inventories | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
| Accounts Payable | 338.23 | 550.13 | 744.99 | 829.07 | 696.59 | 991.89 | 1,154.03 | 1,342.68 | 1,562.16 | 1,817.52 |
| Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -20.08 | -12.33 | -10.44 | -21.50 | -30.22 | -29.74 | -34.60 | -40.26 | -46.84 | -54.49 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 37.31 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 1.492 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 60.58 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | 28.85 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 58.90% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 11.638 |
| Total Debt | 451.78 |
| Total Equity | 2,260.42 |
| Total Capital | 2,712.20 |
| Debt Weighting | 16.66 |
| Equity Weighting | 83.34 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Actual | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected | 2028 Projected |
| Revenue | 488.54 | 572.39 | 632.85 | 705.34 | 890.18 | 1,035.69 | 1,204.99 | 1,401.96 | 1,631.13 | 1,897.76 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | 385.56 | 280.78 | 340.47 | 428.02 | 455.13 | 608.12 | 707.53 | 823.19 | 957.75 | 1,114.31 |
| EBIT | 369.09 | 262.63 | 305.74 | 392.53 | 431.74 | 567.34 | 660.08 | 767.99 | 893.52 | 1,039.58 |
| Tax Rate | 27.10% | 30.15% | 29.45% | 29.19% | 28.85% | 28.95% | 28.95% | 28.95% | 28.95% | 28.95% |
| EBIAT | 269.06 | 183.44 | 215.71 | 277.94 | 307.17 | 403.10 | 468.99 | 545.65 | 634.85 | 738.62 |
| Depreciation | 16.47 | 18.14 | 34.72 | 35.49 | 23.39 | 40.78 | 47.45 | 55.20 | 64.23 | 74.72 |
| Accounts Receivable | - | -17.07 | -149.55 | -102.04 | 97.78 | -138.45 | -83.78 | -97.47 | -113.41 | -131.95 |
| Inventories | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Accounts Payable | - | 211.90 | 194.86 | 84.08 | -132.48 | 295.30 | 162.14 | 188.64 | 219.48 | 255.36 |
| Capital Expenditure | -20.08 | -12.33 | -10.44 | -21.50 | -30.21 | -29.74 | -34.60 | -40.26 | -46.84 | -54.49 |
| UFCF | 265.45 | 384.07 | 285.30 | 273.97 | 265.64 | 570.99 | 560.19 | 651.77 | 758.31 | 882.26 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV UFCF | 477.78 | 392.22 | 381.84 | 371.73 | 361.89 | |||||
| SUM PV UFCF | 1,985.45 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 19.51 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | 899.91 |
| Terminal Value | 5,139.39 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | 2,108.10 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | 4,093.55 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | -1,781.25 |
| Equity Value | 5,874.80 |
| Shares Outstanding | 60.58 |
| Equity Value Per Share | 96.97 |