Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Axos Financial, Inc. (AX)
$37.82
-2.92 (-7.17%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 439.44 | 488.54 | 572.39 | 632.85 | 705.34 | 794.13 | 894.10 | 1,006.66 | 1,133.38 | 1,276.06 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| EBITDA | 354.85 | 385.56 | 442.85 | 419.59 | 428.02 | 578.17 | 650.95 | 732.90 | 825.16 | 929.03 |
| EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
| EBIT | 346.28 | 369.09 | 407.86 | 384.86 | 392.53 | 543.30 | 611.69 | 688.70 | 775.39 | 873.01 |
| EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
| Depreciation | 8.57 | 16.47 | 34.99 | 34.72 | 35.49 | 34.87 | 39.26 | 44.20 | 49.76 | 56.03 |
| Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Total Cash | 803.06 | 738.64 | 1,944.10 | 902.96 | 1,465.10 | 1,626.36 | 1,831.09 | 2,061.60 | 2,321.13 | 2,613.33 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
| Account Receivables | 26.73 | 203.19 | 220.27 | 369.82 | 417.42 | 323.64 | 364.39 | 410.26 | 461.90 | 520.05 |
| Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
| Inventories | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
| Accounts Payable | 82.09 | 338.23 | 550.13 | 744.99 | 774.63 | 653.67 | 735.96 | 828.61 | 932.92 | 1,050.37 |
| Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -11.82 | -20.08 | -12.33 | -10.44 | -21.50 | -21.68 | -24.41 | -27.49 | -30.95 | -34.84 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 37.82 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 1.451 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 60.52 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | 29.19 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 6.61% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 10.452 |
| Total Debt | 562.74 |
| Total Equity | 2,288.85 |
| Total Capital | 2,851.60 |
| Debt Weighting | 19.73 |
| Equity Weighting | 80.27 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 439.44 | 488.54 | 572.39 | 632.85 | 705.34 | 794.13 | 894.10 | 1,006.66 | 1,133.38 | 1,276.06 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | 354.85 | 385.56 | 442.85 | 419.59 | 428.02 | 578.17 | 650.95 | 732.90 | 825.16 | 929.03 |
| EBIT | 346.28 | 369.09 | 407.86 | 384.86 | 392.53 | 543.30 | 611.69 | 688.70 | 775.39 | 873.01 |
| Tax Rate | 36.42% | 27.10% | 30.15% | 29.45% | 29.19% | 30.46% | 30.46% | 30.46% | 30.46% | 30.46% |
| EBIAT | 220.18 | 269.06 | 284.87 | 271.53 | 277.94 | 377.80 | 425.36 | 478.90 | 539.19 | 607.07 |
| Depreciation | 8.57 | 16.47 | 34.99 | 34.72 | 35.49 | 34.87 | 39.26 | 44.20 | 49.76 | 56.03 |
| Accounts Receivable | - | -176.46 | -17.07 | -149.55 | -47.60 | 93.77 | -40.74 | -45.87 | -51.65 | -58.15 |
| Inventories | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Accounts Payable | - | 256.14 | 211.90 | 194.86 | 29.64 | -120.95 | 82.29 | 92.65 | 104.31 | 117.44 |
| Capital Expenditure | -11.82 | -20.08 | -12.33 | -10.44 | -21.50 | -21.68 | -24.41 | -27.49 | -30.95 | -34.84 |
| UFCF | 216.94 | 345.12 | 502.35 | 341.12 | 273.97 | 363.80 | 481.75 | 542.39 | 610.67 | 687.55 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV UFCF | 331.66 | 400.39 | 410.97 | 421.83 | 432.98 | |||||
| SUM PV UFCF | 1,997.84 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 9.69 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | 701.30 |
| Terminal Value | 9,119.62 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | 5,743.04 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | 7,740.88 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | -639.84 |
| Equity Value | 8,380.72 |
| Shares Outstanding | 60.52 |
| Equity Value Per Share | 138.48 |