Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
AxoGen, Inc. (AXGN)
$9.58
+0.20 (+2.13%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 83.94 | 106.71 | 112.30 | 127.36 | 138.58 | 157.50 | 178.99 | 203.42 | 231.19 | 262.74 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| EBITDA | -20.34 | -26.22 | -19.27 | -20.89 | -23.47 | -31.28 | -35.55 | -40.40 | -45.91 | -52.18 |
| EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
| EBIT | -21.19 | -29.10 | -22.73 | -25.63 | -28.32 | -35.69 | -40.56 | -46.10 | -52.39 | -59.54 |
| EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
| Depreciation | 0.85 | 2.88 | 3.46 | 4.74 | 4.85 | 4.41 | 5.02 | 5.70 | 6.48 | 7.36 |
| Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Total Cash | 116.61 | 96.51 | 103.97 | 84.09 | 48.79 | 133.30 | 151.49 | 172.16 | 195.66 | 222.37 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
| Account Receivables | 15.32 | 16.94 | 17.62 | 18.16 | 22.19 | 25.23 | 28.67 | 32.58 | 37.03 | 42.08 |
| Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
| Inventories | 11.98 | 13.86 | 12.53 | 16.69 | 18.91 | 20.53 | 23.33 | 26.51 | 30.13 | 34.25 |
| Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
| Accounts Payable | 4.52 | 8.26 | 4.60 | 5.92 | 8.96 | 8.93 | 10.14 | 11.53 | 13.10 | 14.89 |
| Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -6.60 | -5.23 | -22.60 | -28.40 | -21.25 | -22.21 | -25.25 | -28.69 | -32.61 | -37.06 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 9.58 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 0.622 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 42.08 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | 0.00 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 0.93% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 6.650 |
| Total Debt | 67.43 |
| Total Equity | 403.16 |
| Total Capital | 470.58 |
| Debt Weighting | 14.33 |
| Equity Weighting | 85.67 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 83.94 | 106.71 | 112.30 | 127.36 | 138.58 | 157.50 | 178.99 | 203.42 | 231.19 | 262.74 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | -20.34 | -26.22 | -19.27 | -20.89 | -23.47 | -31.28 | -35.55 | -40.40 | -45.91 | -52.18 |
| EBIT | -21.19 | -29.10 | -22.73 | -25.63 | -28.32 | -35.69 | -40.56 | -46.10 | -52.39 | -59.54 |
| Tax Rate | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| EBIAT | -21.19 | -29.10 | -22.73 | -25.63 | -28.32 | -35.69 | -40.56 | -46.10 | -52.39 | -59.54 |
| Depreciation | 0.85 | 2.88 | 3.46 | 4.74 | 4.85 | 4.41 | 5.02 | 5.70 | 6.48 | 7.36 |
| Accounts Receivable | - | -1.62 | -0.67 | -0.54 | -4.03 | -3.04 | -3.44 | -3.91 | -4.45 | -5.05 |
| Inventories | - | -1.88 | 1.33 | -4.16 | -2.21 | -1.62 | -2.80 | -3.18 | -3.62 | -4.11 |
| Accounts Payable | - | 3.75 | -3.67 | 1.33 | 3.04 | -0.04 | 1.22 | 1.38 | 1.57 | 1.79 |
| Capital Expenditure | -6.60 | -5.23 | -22.60 | -28.40 | -21.25 | -22.21 | -25.25 | -28.69 | -32.61 | -37.06 |
| UFCF | -26.94 | -31.20 | -44.88 | -52.67 | -47.92 | -58.19 | -65.82 | -74.80 | -85.01 | -96.61 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV UFCF | -54.99 | -58.77 | -63.11 | -67.77 | -72.78 | |||||
| SUM PV UFCF | -317.41 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 5.83 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | -98.55 |
| Terminal Value | -2,573.04 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | -1,938.21 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | -2,255.63 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | 52.14 |
| Equity Value | -2,307.77 |
| Shares Outstanding | 42.08 |
| Equity Value Per Share | -54.84 |