Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
American Express Company (AXP)
$158.36
+1.84 (+1.18%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
Revenue | 40,315 | 43,556 | 36,087 | 43,147 | 52,862 | 57,219.29 | 61,935.73 | 67,040.95 | 72,566.97 | 78,548.49 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
EBITDA | 12,358 | 13,081 | 7,937 | 13,667 | 12,348 | 15,759.87 | 17,058.92 | 18,465.04 | 19,987.07 | 21,634.55 |
EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
EBIT | 11,065 | 11,893 | 6,394 | 11,972 | 10,722 | 13,789.82 | 14,926.48 | 16,156.83 | 17,488.60 | 18,930.14 |
EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
Depreciation | 1,293 | 1,188 | 1,543 | 1,695 | 1,626 | 1,970.05 | 2,132.44 | 2,308.21 | 2,498.47 | 2,704.41 |
Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
Total Cash | 29,643 | 30,452 | 52,529 | 22,999 | 34,000 | 46,533.86 | 50,369.53 | 54,521.37 | 59,015.44 | 63,879.94 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
Account Receivables | 2,907 | 56,794 | 43,434 | 2,700 | 34,918.07 | 37,796.28 | 40,911.74 | 44,284 | 47,934.22 | 51,885.32 |
Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
Inventories | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
Accounts Payable | 12,255 | 12,738 | 9,444 | 10,574 | 14,579.37 | 15,781.11 | 17,081.91 | 18,489.93 | 20,014.01 | 21,663.72 |
Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
Capital Expenditure | -1,310 | -1,645 | -1,478 | -1,550 | -1,944.55 | -2,104.84 | -2,278.34 | -2,466.13 | -2,669.41 | -2,889.44 |
Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
Share price | $ 158.36 |
---|---|
Beta | 1.195 |
Diluted Shares Outstanding | 790 |
Cost of Debt | |
Tax Rate | 21.61 |
After-tax Cost of Debt | 4.92% |
Risk-Free Rate | |
Market Risk Premium | |
Cost of Equity | 9.121 |
Total Debt | 44,000 |
Total Equity | 125,104.40 |
Total Capital | 169,104.40 |
Debt Weighting | 26.02 |
Equity Weighting | 73.98 |
Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
Revenue | 40,315 | 43,556 | 36,087 | 43,147 | 52,862 | 57,219.29 | 61,935.73 | 67,040.95 | 72,566.97 | 78,548.49 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
EBITDA | 12,358 | 13,081 | 7,937 | 13,667 | 12,348 | 15,759.87 | 17,058.92 | 18,465.04 | 19,987.07 | 21,634.55 |
EBIT | 11,065 | 11,893 | 6,394 | 11,972 | 10,722 | 13,789.82 | 14,926.48 | 16,156.83 | 17,488.60 | 18,930.14 |
Tax Rate | 14.79% | 19.81% | 27.03% | 24.60% | 21.61% | 21.57% | 21.57% | 21.57% | 21.57% | 21.57% |
EBIAT | 9,428.82 | 9,536.69 | 4,666.01 | 9,027.44 | 8,405.33 | 10,816 | 11,707.53 | 12,672.56 | 13,717.12 | 14,847.79 |
Depreciation | 1,293 | 1,188 | 1,543 | 1,695 | 1,626 | 1,970.05 | 2,132.44 | 2,308.21 | 2,498.47 | 2,704.41 |
Accounts Receivable | - | -53,887 | 13,360 | 40,734 | -32,218.07 | -2,878.21 | -3,115.46 | -3,372.26 | -3,650.22 | -3,951.10 |
Inventories | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
Accounts Payable | - | 483 | -3,294 | 1,130 | 4,005.37 | 1,201.74 | 1,300.80 | 1,408.02 | 1,524.08 | 1,649.71 |
Capital Expenditure | -1,310 | -1,645 | -1,478 | -1,550 | -1,944.55 | -2,104.84 | -2,278.34 | -2,466.13 | -2,669.41 | -2,889.44 |
UFCF | 9,411.82 | -44,324.31 | 14,797.01 | 51,036.44 | -20,125.92 | 9,004.74 | 9,746.98 | 10,550.40 | 11,420.04 | 12,361.36 |
WACC | ||||||||||
PV UFCF | 8,335.40 | 8,351.82 | 8,368.27 | 8,384.75 | 8,401.26 | |||||
SUM PV UFCF | 41,841.50 |
Terminal Value
Growth in perpetuity method: | |
---|---|
Long-term growth rate | |
WACC (%) | 8.03 |
Free cash flow (t + 1) | 12,608.59 |
Terminal Value | 209,097.72 |
Present Value of Terminal Value | 142,110.91 |
Intrinsic Value
Enterprise Value | 183,952.41 |
---|---|
Net Debt | 10,000 |
Equity Value | 173,952.41 |
Shares Outstanding | 790 |
Equity Value Per Share | 220.19 |