Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

American Express Company (AXP)

$158.36

+1.84 (+1.18%)

All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD

Stock DCF: 220.19 | 158.36 | undervalue

Operating Data

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Revenue	40,315	43,556	36,087	43,147	52,862	57,219.29	61,935.73	67,040.95	72,566.97	78,548.49
Revenue (%)
EBITDA	12,358	13,081	7,937	13,667	12,348	15,759.87	17,058.92	18,465.04	19,987.07	21,634.55
EBITDA (%)
EBIT	11,065	11,893	6,394	11,972	10,722	13,789.82	14,926.48	16,156.83	17,488.60	18,930.14
EBIT (%)
Depreciation	1,293	1,188	1,543	1,695	1,626	1,970.05	2,132.44	2,308.21	2,498.47	2,704.41
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Total Cash	29,643	30,452	52,529	22,999	34,000	46,533.86	50,369.53	54,521.37	59,015.44	63,879.94
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables	2,907	56,794	43,434	2,700	34,918.07	37,796.28	40,911.74	44,284	47,934.22	51,885.32
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable	12,255	12,738	9,444	10,574	14,579.37	15,781.11	17,081.91	18,489.93	20,014.01	21,663.72
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure	-1,310	-1,645	-1,478	-1,550	-1,944.55	-2,104.84	-2,278.34	-2,466.13	-2,669.41	-2,889.44
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price	$ 158.36
Beta	1.195
Diluted Shares Outstanding	790
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate	21.61
After-tax Cost of Debt	4.92%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity	9.121
Total Debt	44,000
Total Equity	125,104.40
Total Capital	169,104.40
Debt Weighting	26.02
Equity Weighting	73.98
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Revenue	40,315	43,556	36,087	43,147	52,862	57,219.29	61,935.73	67,040.95	72,566.97	78,548.49
EBITDA	12,358	13,081	7,937	13,667	12,348	15,759.87	17,058.92	18,465.04	19,987.07	21,634.55
EBIT	11,065	11,893	6,394	11,972	10,722	13,789.82	14,926.48	16,156.83	17,488.60	18,930.14
Tax Rate	14.79%	19.81%	27.03%	24.60%	21.61%	21.57%	21.57%	21.57%	21.57%	21.57%
EBIAT	9,428.82	9,536.69	4,666.01	9,027.44	8,405.33	10,816	11,707.53	12,672.56	13,717.12	14,847.79
Depreciation	1,293	1,188	1,543	1,695	1,626	1,970.05	2,132.44	2,308.21	2,498.47	2,704.41
Accounts Receivable	-	-53,887	13,360	40,734	-32,218.07	-2,878.21	-3,115.46	-3,372.26	-3,650.22	-3,951.10
Inventories	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Accounts Payable	-	483	-3,294	1,130	4,005.37	1,201.74	1,300.80	1,408.02	1,524.08	1,649.71
Capital Expenditure	-1,310	-1,645	-1,478	-1,550	-1,944.55	-2,104.84	-2,278.34	-2,466.13	-2,669.41	-2,889.44
UFCF	9,411.82	-44,324.31	14,797.01	51,036.44	-20,125.92	9,004.74	9,746.98	10,550.40	11,420.04	12,361.36
WACC
PV UFCF						8,335.40	8,351.82	8,368.27	8,384.75	8,401.26
SUM PV UFCF										41,841.50

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%)	8.03
Free cash flow (t + 1)	12,608.59
Terminal Value	209,097.72
Present Value of Terminal Value	142,110.91

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value	183,952.41
Net Debt	10,000
Equity Value	173,952.41
Shares Outstanding	790
Equity Value Per Share	220.19