Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

American Express Company (AXP)

$158.36

+1.84 (+1.18%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 220.19 | 158.36 | undervalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 40,31543,55636,08743,14752,86257,219.2961,935.7367,040.9572,566.9778,548.49
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 12,35813,0817,93713,66712,34815,759.8717,058.9218,465.0419,987.0721,634.55
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 11,06511,8936,39411,97210,72213,789.8214,926.4816,156.8317,488.6018,930.14
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 1,2931,1881,5431,6951,6261,970.052,132.442,308.212,498.472,704.41
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Total Cash 29,64330,45252,52922,99934,00046,533.8650,369.5354,521.3759,015.4463,879.94
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 2,90756,79443,4342,70034,918.0737,796.2840,911.7444,28447,934.2251,885.32
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories ----------
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 12,25512,7389,44410,57414,579.3715,781.1117,081.9118,489.9320,014.0121,663.72
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -1,310-1,645-1,478-1,550-1,944.55-2,104.84-2,278.34-2,466.13-2,669.41-2,889.44
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 158.36
Beta 1.195
Diluted Shares Outstanding 790
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 21.61
After-tax Cost of Debt 4.92%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 9.121
Total Debt 44,000
Total Equity 125,104.40
Total Capital 169,104.40
Debt Weighting 26.02
Equity Weighting 73.98
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 40,31543,55636,08743,14752,86257,219.2961,935.7367,040.9572,566.9778,548.49
EBITDA 12,35813,0817,93713,66712,34815,759.8717,058.9218,465.0419,987.0721,634.55
EBIT 11,06511,8936,39411,97210,72213,789.8214,926.4816,156.8317,488.6018,930.14
Tax Rate 14.79%19.81%27.03%24.60%21.61%21.57%21.57%21.57%21.57%21.57%
EBIAT 9,428.829,536.694,666.019,027.448,405.3310,81611,707.5312,672.5613,717.1214,847.79
Depreciation 1,2931,1881,5431,6951,6261,970.052,132.442,308.212,498.472,704.41
Accounts Receivable --53,88713,36040,734-32,218.07-2,878.21-3,115.46-3,372.26-3,650.22-3,951.10
Inventories ----------
Accounts Payable -483-3,2941,1304,005.371,201.741,300.801,408.021,524.081,649.71
Capital Expenditure -1,310-1,645-1,478-1,550-1,944.55-2,104.84-2,278.34-2,466.13-2,669.41-2,889.44
UFCF 9,411.82-44,324.3114,797.0151,036.44-20,125.929,004.749,746.9810,550.4011,420.0412,361.36
WACC
PV UFCF 8,335.408,351.828,368.278,384.758,401.26
SUM PV UFCF 41,841.50

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 8.03
Free cash flow (t + 1) 12,608.59
Terminal Value 209,097.72
Present Value of Terminal Value 142,110.91

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 183,952.41
Net Debt 10,000
Equity Value 173,952.41
Shares Outstanding 790
Equity Value Per Share 220.19