Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Axalta Coating Systems Ltd. (AXTA)

$29.42

+0.19 (+0.65%)

All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD

Stock DCF: 30.93 | 29.42 | undervalue

Operating Data

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Revenue	4,696	4,482.20	3,737.60	4,416.20	4,884.40	4,977.11	5,071.59	5,167.86	5,265.95	5,365.91
Revenue (%)
EBITDA	790	842	592	790.70	699.60	832.92	848.73	864.84	881.26	897.98
EBITDA (%)
EBIT	420.90	489	271.70	474.20	396.50	457.87	466.56	475.42	484.44	493.64
EBIT (%)
Depreciation	369.10	353	320.30	316.50	303.10	375.05	382.17	389.42	396.81	404.35
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Total Cash	693.60	1,017.50	1,360.90	840.60	645.20	1,056.40	1,076.45	1,096.89	1,117.71	1,138.92
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables	860.80	830.10	869.80	937.50	1,067.40	1,027.32	1,046.82	1,066.69	1,086.93	1,107.57
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories	613	591.60	559.90	669.70	829.60	730.46	744.33	758.46	772.85	787.52
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable	477.80	442	513.40	610.90	733.50	623.36	635.19	647.25	659.53	672.05
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure	-143.40	-112.50	-82.10	-121.60	-150.90	-135.41	-137.98	-140.60	-143.27	-145.99
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price	$ 29.42
Beta	1.427
Diluted Shares Outstanding	236
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate	25.53
After-tax Cost of Debt	2.81%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity	10.290
Total Debt	3,704.30
Total Equity	6,943.12
Total Capital	10,647.42
Debt Weighting	34.79
Equity Weighting	65.21
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Revenue	4,696	4,482.20	3,737.60	4,416.20	4,884.40	4,977.11	5,071.59	5,167.86	5,265.95	5,365.91
EBITDA	790	842	592	790.70	699.60	832.92	848.73	864.84	881.26	897.98
EBIT	420.90	489	271.70	474.20	396.50	457.87	466.56	475.42	484.44	493.64
Tax Rate	22.58%	24.55%	0.49%	22.50%	25.53%	19.13%	19.13%	19.13%	19.13%	19.13%
EBIAT	325.86	368.97	270.37	367.52	295.26	370.28	377.31	384.47	391.77	399.21
Depreciation	369.10	353	320.30	316.50	303.10	375.05	382.17	389.42	396.81	404.35
Accounts Receivable	-	30.70	-39.70	-67.70	-129.90	40.08	-19.50	-19.87	-20.25	-20.63
Inventories	-	21.40	31.70	-109.80	-159.90	99.14	-13.87	-14.13	-14.40	-14.67
Accounts Payable	-	-35.80	71.40	97.50	122.60	-110.14	11.83	12.06	12.29	12.52
Capital Expenditure	-143.40	-112.50	-82.10	-121.60	-150.90	-135.41	-137.98	-140.60	-143.27	-145.99
UFCF	551.56	625.77	571.97	482.42	280.26	639	599.97	611.36	622.96	634.79
WACC
PV UFCF						593.37	517.34	489.52	463.19	438.28
SUM PV UFCF										2,501.70

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%)	7.69
Free cash flow (t + 1)	647.48
Terminal Value	11,379.29
Present Value of Terminal Value	7,856.67

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value	10,358.37
Net Debt	3,059.10
Equity Value	7,299.27
Shares Outstanding	236
Equity Value Per Share	30.93