Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

AXT, Inc. (AXTI)

$6.71

-0.04 (-0.59%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: -8.65 | 6.71 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 98.67102.4083.2695.36137.39152.40169.05187.52208230.73
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 15.3615.463.499.6015.8817.2219.1021.1923.5026.07
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 10.9410.59-2.045.278.879.4410.4711.6112.8814.29
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 4.424.875.534.337.027.788.639.5810.6211.78
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 64.3838.6536.3272.8442.1877.3385.7895.15105.55117.08
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 22.7819.5919.0324.5634.8435.4139.2843.5748.3353.61
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 45.8458.5749.1551.5165.9180.6889.4999.27110.11122.14
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 11.4513.3410.1012.6716.6518.9521.0223.3125.8628.68
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -21.36-40.54-21.79-19.85-37.17-41.24-45.74-50.74-56.28-62.43
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 6.71
Beta 2.092
Diluted Shares Outstanding 42.72
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 17.20
After-tax Cost of Debt 1.10%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 13.647
Total Debt 16.05
Total Equity 286.65
Total Capital 302.70
Debt Weighting 5.30
Equity Weighting 94.70
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 98.67102.4083.2695.36137.39152.40169.05187.52208230.73
EBITDA 15.3615.463.499.6015.8817.2219.1021.1923.5026.07
EBIT 10.9410.59-2.045.278.879.4410.4711.6112.8814.29
Tax Rate 6.50%19.19%-153.41%54.21%17.20%-11.26%-11.26%-11.26%-11.26%-11.26%
EBIAT 10.238.56-5.162.417.3410.5011.6512.9214.3315.90
Depreciation 4.424.875.534.337.027.788.639.5810.6211.78
Accounts Receivable -3.190.56-5.53-10.28-0.57-3.87-4.29-4.76-5.28
Inventories --12.739.42-2.36-14.40-14.77-8.81-9.78-10.84-12.03
Accounts Payable -1.89-3.242.573.982.302.072.302.552.82
Capital Expenditure -21.36-40.54-21.79-19.86-37.17-41.24-45.74-50.74-56.28-62.43
UFCF -6.70-34.75-14.69-18.43-43.52-36-36.07-40.01-44.39-49.23
WACC
PV UFCF -31.86-28.26-27.75-27.24-26.75
SUM PV UFCF -141.86

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 12.98
Free cash flow (t + 1) -50.22
Terminal Value -457.37
Present Value of Terminal Value -248.46

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value -390.32
Net Debt -20.71
Equity Value -369.61
Shares Outstanding 42.72
Equity Value Per Share -8.65