Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
AstraZeneca PLC (AZN)
$66.57
-0.42 (-0.63%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
Revenue | 22,090 | 24,384 | 26,617 | 37,417 | 44,351 | 53,071.48 | 63,506.62 | 75,993.56 | 90,935.73 | 108,815.90 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
EBITDA | 7,217 | 6,820 | 8,389 | 7,538 | 9,322 | 14,151.20 | 16,933.67 | 20,263.24 | 24,247.49 | 29,015.13 |
EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
EBIT | 3,464 | 3,058 | 5,240 | 1,008 | 3,842 | 6,290.63 | 7,527.52 | 9,007.62 | 10,778.73 | 12,898.09 |
EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
Depreciation | 3,753 | 3,762 | 3,149 | 6,530 | 5,480 | 7,860.57 | 9,406.15 | 11,255.63 | 13,468.76 | 16,117.04 |
Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
Total Cash | 5,594 | 6,218 | 7,992 | 6,398 | 6,405 | 11,929.48 | 14,275.11 | 17,081.94 | 20,440.66 | 24,459.79 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
Account Receivables | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
Inventories | 2,890 | 3,193 | 4,024 | 8,983 | 4,699 | 8,056.09 | 9,640.11 | 11,535.59 | 13,803.77 | 16,517.92 |
Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
Accounts Payable | 1,720 | 1,774 | 2,350 | 2,824 | 19,040 | 7,893.66 | 9,445.74 | 11,303 | 13,525.45 | 16,184.88 |
Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
Capital Expenditure | -1,371 | -2,460 | -2,606 | -2,200 | -2,571 | -4,008.21 | -4,796.32 | -5,739.39 | -6,867.90 | -8,218.29 |
Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
Share price | $ 66.57 |
---|---|
Beta | 0.174 |
Diluted Shares Outstanding | 2,854 |
Cost of Debt | |
Tax Rate | -31.47 |
After-tax Cost of Debt | 4.60% |
Risk-Free Rate | |
Market Risk Premium | |
Cost of Equity | 4.320 |
Total Debt | 29,232 |
Total Equity | 189,990.78 |
Total Capital | 219,222.78 |
Debt Weighting | 13.33 |
Equity Weighting | 86.67 |
Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
Revenue | 22,090 | 24,384 | 26,617 | 37,417 | 44,351 | 53,071.48 | 63,506.62 | 75,993.56 | 90,935.73 | 108,815.90 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
EBITDA | 7,217 | 6,820 | 8,389 | 7,538 | 9,322 | 14,151.20 | 16,933.67 | 20,263.24 | 24,247.49 | 29,015.13 |
EBIT | 3,464 | 3,058 | 5,240 | 1,008 | 3,842 | 6,290.63 | 7,527.52 | 9,007.62 | 10,778.73 | 12,898.09 |
Tax Rate | -8.13% | 13.76% | 18.39% | 142.26% | -31.47% | 26.96% | 26.96% | 26.96% | 26.96% | 26.96% |
EBIAT | 3,745.57 | 2,637.23 | 4,276.57 | -426.02 | 5,050.98 | 4,594.50 | 5,497.89 | 6,578.91 | 7,872.48 | 9,420.40 |
Depreciation | 3,753 | 3,762 | 3,149 | 6,530 | 5,480 | 7,860.57 | 9,406.15 | 11,255.63 | 13,468.76 | 16,117.04 |
Accounts Receivable | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
Inventories | - | -303 | -831 | -4,959 | 4,284 | -3,357.09 | -1,584.02 | -1,895.48 | -2,268.18 | -2,714.16 |
Accounts Payable | - | 54 | 576 | 474 | 16,216 | -11,146.34 | 1,552.08 | 1,857.26 | 2,222.44 | 2,659.43 |
Capital Expenditure | -1,371 | -2,460 | -2,606 | -2,200 | -2,571 | -4,008.21 | -4,796.32 | -5,739.39 | -6,867.90 | -8,218.29 |
UFCF | 6,127.57 | 3,690.23 | 4,564.57 | -581.02 | 28,459.98 | -6,056.57 | 10,075.78 | 12,056.93 | 14,427.61 | 17,264.43 |
WACC | ||||||||||
PV UFCF | -5,803.53 | 9,251.47 | 10,608.02 | 12,163.49 | 13,947.03 | |||||
SUM PV UFCF | 40,166.48 |
Terminal Value
Growth in perpetuity method: | |
---|---|
Long-term growth rate | |
WACC (%) | 4.36 |
Free cash flow (t + 1) | 17,609.72 |
Terminal Value | 746,174.42 |
Present Value of Terminal Value | 602,795.50 |
Intrinsic Value
Enterprise Value | 642,961.98 |
---|---|
Net Debt | 23,066 |
Equity Value | 619,895.98 |
Shares Outstanding | 2,854 |
Equity Value Per Share | 217.20 |