Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

AstraZeneca PLC (AZN)

$66.57

-0.42 (-0.63%)

All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD

Stock DCF: 217.20 | 66.57 | undervalue

Operating Data

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Revenue	22,090	24,384	26,617	37,417	44,351	53,071.48	63,506.62	75,993.56	90,935.73	108,815.90
Revenue (%)
EBITDA	7,217	6,820	8,389	7,538	9,322	14,151.20	16,933.67	20,263.24	24,247.49	29,015.13
EBITDA (%)
EBIT	3,464	3,058	5,240	1,008	3,842	6,290.63	7,527.52	9,007.62	10,778.73	12,898.09
EBIT (%)
Depreciation	3,753	3,762	3,149	6,530	5,480	7,860.57	9,406.15	11,255.63	13,468.76	16,117.04
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Total Cash	5,594	6,218	7,992	6,398	6,405	11,929.48	14,275.11	17,081.94	20,440.66	24,459.79
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories	2,890	3,193	4,024	8,983	4,699	8,056.09	9,640.11	11,535.59	13,803.77	16,517.92
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable	1,720	1,774	2,350	2,824	19,040	7,893.66	9,445.74	11,303	13,525.45	16,184.88
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure	-1,371	-2,460	-2,606	-2,200	-2,571	-4,008.21	-4,796.32	-5,739.39	-6,867.90	-8,218.29
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price	$ 66.57
Beta	0.174
Diluted Shares Outstanding	2,854
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate	-31.47
After-tax Cost of Debt	4.60%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity	4.320
Total Debt	29,232
Total Equity	189,990.78
Total Capital	219,222.78
Debt Weighting	13.33
Equity Weighting	86.67
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Revenue	22,090	24,384	26,617	37,417	44,351	53,071.48	63,506.62	75,993.56	90,935.73	108,815.90
EBITDA	7,217	6,820	8,389	7,538	9,322	14,151.20	16,933.67	20,263.24	24,247.49	29,015.13
EBIT	3,464	3,058	5,240	1,008	3,842	6,290.63	7,527.52	9,007.62	10,778.73	12,898.09
Tax Rate	-8.13%	13.76%	18.39%	142.26%	-31.47%	26.96%	26.96%	26.96%	26.96%	26.96%
EBIAT	3,745.57	2,637.23	4,276.57	-426.02	5,050.98	4,594.50	5,497.89	6,578.91	7,872.48	9,420.40
Depreciation	3,753	3,762	3,149	6,530	5,480	7,860.57	9,406.15	11,255.63	13,468.76	16,117.04
Accounts Receivable	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Inventories	-	-303	-831	-4,959	4,284	-3,357.09	-1,584.02	-1,895.48	-2,268.18	-2,714.16
Accounts Payable	-	54	576	474	16,216	-11,146.34	1,552.08	1,857.26	2,222.44	2,659.43
Capital Expenditure	-1,371	-2,460	-2,606	-2,200	-2,571	-4,008.21	-4,796.32	-5,739.39	-6,867.90	-8,218.29
UFCF	6,127.57	3,690.23	4,564.57	-581.02	28,459.98	-6,056.57	10,075.78	12,056.93	14,427.61	17,264.43
WACC
PV UFCF						-5,803.53	9,251.47	10,608.02	12,163.49	13,947.03
SUM PV UFCF										40,166.48

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%)	4.36
Free cash flow (t + 1)	17,609.72
Terminal Value	746,174.42
Present Value of Terminal Value	602,795.50

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value	642,961.98
Net Debt	23,066
Equity Value	619,895.98
Shares Outstanding	2,854
Equity Value Per Share	217.20