Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

AstraZeneca PLC (AZN)

$66.57

-0.42 (-0.63%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 217.20 | 66.57 | undervalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 22,09024,38426,61737,41744,35153,071.4863,506.6275,993.5690,935.73108,815.90
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 7,2176,8208,3897,5389,32214,151.2016,933.6720,263.2424,247.4929,015.13
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 3,4643,0585,2401,0083,8426,290.637,527.529,007.6210,778.7312,898.09
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 3,7533,7623,1496,5305,4807,860.579,406.1511,255.6313,468.7616,117.04
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Total Cash 5,5946,2187,9926,3986,40511,929.4814,275.1117,081.9420,440.6624,459.79
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables ----------
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 2,8903,1934,0248,9834,6998,056.099,640.1111,535.5913,803.7716,517.92
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 1,7201,7742,3502,82419,0407,893.669,445.7411,30313,525.4516,184.88
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -1,371-2,460-2,606-2,200-2,571-4,008.21-4,796.32-5,739.39-6,867.90-8,218.29
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 66.57
Beta 0.174
Diluted Shares Outstanding 2,854
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate -31.47
After-tax Cost of Debt 4.60%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 4.320
Total Debt 29,232
Total Equity 189,990.78
Total Capital 219,222.78
Debt Weighting 13.33
Equity Weighting 86.67
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 22,09024,38426,61737,41744,35153,071.4863,506.6275,993.5690,935.73108,815.90
EBITDA 7,2176,8208,3897,5389,32214,151.2016,933.6720,263.2424,247.4929,015.13
EBIT 3,4643,0585,2401,0083,8426,290.637,527.529,007.6210,778.7312,898.09
Tax Rate -8.13%13.76%18.39%142.26%-31.47%26.96%26.96%26.96%26.96%26.96%
EBIAT 3,745.572,637.234,276.57-426.025,050.984,594.505,497.896,578.917,872.489,420.40
Depreciation 3,7533,7623,1496,5305,4807,860.579,406.1511,255.6313,468.7616,117.04
Accounts Receivable ----------
Inventories --303-831-4,9594,284-3,357.09-1,584.02-1,895.48-2,268.18-2,714.16
Accounts Payable -5457647416,216-11,146.341,552.081,857.262,222.442,659.43
Capital Expenditure -1,371-2,460-2,606-2,200-2,571-4,008.21-4,796.32-5,739.39-6,867.90-8,218.29
UFCF 6,127.573,690.234,564.57-581.0228,459.98-6,056.5710,075.7812,056.9314,427.6117,264.43
WACC
PV UFCF -5,803.539,251.4710,608.0212,163.4913,947.03
SUM PV UFCF 40,166.48

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 4.36
Free cash flow (t + 1) 17,609.72
Terminal Value 746,174.42
Present Value of Terminal Value 602,795.50

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 642,961.98
Net Debt 23,066
Equity Value 619,895.98
Shares Outstanding 2,854
Equity Value Per Share 217.20