Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Bajaj Hindusthan Sugar Limited (BAJAJHIND.NS)

39.1 ₹

+0.20 (+0.51%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 9.92 | 39.1 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 66,931.1066,141.1065,566.3054,997.8063,380.3062,916.5762,456.2361,999.2761,545.6461,095.33
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 3,9424,656.601,809.702,042.502,851.603,007.812,985.802,963.952,942.272,920.74
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 1,899.702,492.50-347.40-104.10719.60883.73877.26870.84864.47858.14
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 2,042.302,164.102,157.102,146.602,1322,124.082,108.542,093.112,077.802,062.59
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Total Cash 10,936.1011,442.6011,144.3019,704.8023410,926.6210,846.6710,767.3110,688.5310,610.32
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables --13,302.506,805.801,693.607,410.617,356.397,302.577,249.147,196.10
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 27,649.8027,113.9025,413.4027,455.6026,127.2026,702.9126,507.5426,313.5926,121.0625,929.95
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 41,65744,444.6044,617.2040,947.3045,56343,264.6042,948.0542,633.8142,321.8842,012.22
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -167.40-289-25.40-86-62.60-123.43-122.53-121.63-120.74-119.86
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 39.1
Beta 1.299
Diluted Shares Outstanding 1,248.59
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 2.48
After-tax Cost of Debt 4.76%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 10.382
Total Debt 43,032.90
Total Equity 48,819.93
Total Capital 91,852.83
Debt Weighting 46.85
Equity Weighting 53.15
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 66,931.1066,141.1065,566.3054,997.8063,380.3062,916.5762,456.2361,999.2761,545.6461,095.33
EBITDA 3,9424,656.601,809.702,042.502,851.603,007.812,985.802,963.952,942.272,920.74
EBIT 1,899.702,492.50-347.40-104.10719.60883.73877.26870.84864.47858.14
Tax Rate -1.96%4.51%0.98%1.47%2.48%1.49%1.49%1.49%1.49%1.49%
EBIAT 1,9372,380.16-343.98-102.57701.79870.52864.16857.83851.56845.33
Depreciation 2,042.302,164.102,157.102,146.602,1322,124.082,108.542,093.112,077.802,062.59
Accounts Receivable ---6,496.705,112.20-5,717.0154.2253.8253.4353.04
Inventories -535.901,700.50-2,042.201,328.40-575.71195.38193.95192.53191.12
Accounts Payable -2,787.60172.60-3,669.904,615.70-2,298.40-316.55-314.23-311.94-309.65
Capital Expenditure -167.40-289-25.40-86-62.60-123.43-122.53-121.63-120.74-119.86
UFCF 3,811.907,578.763,660.822,742.6313,827.49-5,719.962,783.212,762.852,742.632,722.56
WACC
PV UFCF -5,308.542,397.242,208.542,034.691,874.53
SUM PV UFCF 3,206.45

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 7.75
Free cash flow (t + 1) 2,831.47
Terminal Value 75,505.76
Present Value of Terminal Value 51,986.87

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 55,193.32
Net Debt 42,801.20
Equity Value 12,392.12
Shares Outstanding 1,248.59
Equity Value Per Share 9.92