Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Banco BBVA Argentina S.A. (BBAR)

$6.19

+0.15 (+2.48%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 1,341.81 | 6.19 | undervalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 89,101.16171,372.24288,963.05291,949.68394,100.10588,169.05877,804.481,310,066.721,955,190.322,917,995.79
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 9,987.4245,840.2965,128.2138,183.2467,290.76106,634.90159,145.73237,514.77354,475.52529,031.91
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 5,961.6637,193.5753,173.2527,310.3656,317.5482,861.63123,665.65184,563.03275,448.44411,089.09
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 4,025.768,646.7211,954.9610,872.8810,973.2223,773.2835,480.0852,951.7479,027.07117,942.82
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Total Cash 190,243.64274,276.54422,051.47750,640.76913,533.101,186,377.051,770,591.442,642,493.833,943,752.085,885,796.32
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 13,363.409,475.1017,90629,462.8529,257.2652,040.2477,666.71115,912.57172,992.05258,179.51
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories ----------
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 147.17514.9762.7068.5640.84613.13915.051,365.652,038.153,041.81
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -3,983.25-6,161.07-9,253.72-15,667.06-16,410-24,465.82-36,513.66-54,494.28-81,329.21-121,378.62
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 6.19
Beta 1.574
Diluted Shares Outstanding 204.24
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate -6.14
After-tax Cost of Debt 1,205.37%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 11.714
Total Debt 24,103.06
Total Equity 1,264.23
Total Capital 25,367.29
Debt Weighting 95.02
Equity Weighting 4.98
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 89,101.16171,372.24288,963.05291,949.68394,100.10588,169.05877,804.481,310,066.721,955,190.322,917,995.79
EBITDA 9,987.4245,840.2965,128.2138,183.2467,290.76106,634.90159,145.73237,514.77354,475.52529,031.91
EBIT 5,961.6637,193.5753,173.2527,310.3656,317.5482,861.63123,665.65184,563.03275,448.44411,089.09
Tax Rate 153.85%11.43%44.48%32.76%-6.14%47.27%47.27%47.27%47.27%47.27%
EBIAT -3,210.1032,941.4529,522.0918,364.0559,775.9843,688.8765,202.8397,311.03145,230.45216,747.10
Depreciation 4,025.768,646.7211,954.9610,872.8810,973.2223,773.2835,480.0852,951.7479,027.07117,942.82
Accounts Receivable -3,888.30-8,430.90-11,556.85205.59-22,782.98-25,626.47-38,245.86-57,079.48-85,187.46
Inventories ----------
Accounts Payable -367.80-452.265.86-27.72572.28301.92450.60672.501,003.66
Capital Expenditure -3,983.25-6,161.07-9,253.72-15,667.06-16,410-24,465.82-36,513.66-54,494.28-81,329.21-121,378.62
UFCF -3,167.6039,683.1923,340.172,018.8854,517.0820,785.6338,844.7157,973.2386,521.32129,127.51
WACC
PV UFCF 1,668.35250.2529.983.590.43
SUM PV UFCF 1,952.60

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 1,145.88
Free cash flow (t + 1) 131,710.06
Terminal Value 11,514.32
Present Value of Terminal Value 0.04

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 1,952.64
Net Debt -272,093.93
Equity Value 274,046.57
Shares Outstanding 204.24
Equity Value Per Share 1,341.81