Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Banco BBVA Argentina S.A. (BBAR)

$5.48

-0.11 (-1.97%)

All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD

Stock DCF: 1,456.01 | 5.48 | undervalue

Operating Data

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Revenue	40,634.93	82,652.70	107,807	159,741.22	433,599	816,736.35	1,538,422.06	2,897,804.70	5,458,366.91	10,281,496.66
Revenue (%)
EBITDA	29,507.13	37,469.04	24,740	26,685.35	363,621	394,423.55	742,944.63	1,399,426.39	2,635,989.48	4,965,206.17
EBITDA (%)
EBIT	28,630.75	35,470.43	20,674.02	21,103.59	352,647.77	370,948.43	698,726.39	1,316,135.98	2,479,101.88	4,669,689.33
EBIT (%)
Depreciation	876.37	1,998.61	4,065.98	5,581.76	10,973.22	23,475.12	44,218.23	83,290.41	156,887.60	295,516.84
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Total Cash	123,669.81	201,483.20	279,680.35	385,420.48	296,292	1,824,838.29	3,437,304.44	6,474,580.16	12,195,657.68	22,972,001.67
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables	4,215.66	5,410.17	1,867	5,166.68	6,427	38,171.95	71,901.51	135,435.22	255,108.68	480,528.16
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable	95.67	378.26	41.54	35.20	40.85	1,246.45	2,347.85	4,422.46	8,330.23	15,691
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure	-1,742.60	-2,659.26	-3,147.27	-8,042.92	-16,410	-31,435.77	-59,213.10	-111,535.05	-210,089.81	-395,729.67
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price	$ 5.48
Beta	1.629
Diluted Shares Outstanding	204.24
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate	4.92
After-tax Cost of Debt	144,320.81%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity	11.845
Total Debt	191
Total Equity	1,119.22
Total Capital	1,310.22
Debt Weighting	14.58
Equity Weighting	85.42
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Revenue	40,634.93	82,652.70	107,807	159,741.22	433,599	816,736.35	1,538,422.06	2,897,804.70	5,458,366.91	10,281,496.66
EBITDA	29,507.13	37,469.04	24,740	26,685.35	363,621	394,423.55	742,944.63	1,399,426.39	2,635,989.48	4,965,206.17
EBIT	28,630.75	35,470.43	20,674.02	21,103.59	352,647.77	370,948.43	698,726.39	1,316,135.98	2,479,101.88	4,669,689.33
Tax Rate	29.99%	13.42%	41.70%	-0.48%	4.92%	17.91%	17.91%	17.91%	17.91%	17.91%
EBIAT	20,043.35	30,711.04	12,052.01	21,204.39	335,305.20	304,506.89	573,575.69	1,080,399.45	2,035,063.51	3,833,289.15
Depreciation	876.37	1,998.61	4,065.98	5,581.76	10,973.22	23,475.12	44,218.23	83,290.41	156,887.60	295,516.84
Accounts Receivable	-	-1,194.51	3,543.17	-3,299.68	-1,260.32	-31,744.95	-33,729.55	-63,533.71	-119,673.46	-225,419.48
Inventories	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Accounts Payable	-	282.59	-336.72	-6.34	5.65	1,205.61	1,101.39	2,074.61	3,907.78	7,360.77
Capital Expenditure	-1,742.60	-2,659.26	-3,147.27	-8,042.92	-16,410	-31,435.77	-59,213.10	-111,535.05	-210,089.81	-395,729.67
UFCF	19,177.12	29,138.47	16,177.17	15,437.20	328,613.75	266,006.89	525,952.67	990,695.70	1,866,095.62	3,515,017.62
WACC
PV UFCF						1,257.79	11.76	0.10	0	0
SUM PV UFCF										1,269.65

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%)	21,048.83
Free cash flow (t + 1)	3,585,317.97
Terminal Value	17,034.95
Present Value of Terminal Value	0

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value	1,269.65
Net Debt	-296,101
Equity Value	297,370.65
Shares Outstanding	204.24
Equity Value Per Share	1,456.01