Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria, S.... (BBVA)
$11.29
-0.10 (-0.88%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Actual | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected | 2028 Projected |
Revenue | 18,336 | 15,235 | 18,015 | 21,435 | 29,542 | 33,835.99 | 38,754.13 | 44,387.13 | 50,838.89 | 58,228.44 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
EBITDA | 7,164 | 4,184 | 7,796 | 11,277 | 13,425 | 14,066.49 | 16,111.08 | 18,452.86 | 21,135.03 | 24,207.05 |
EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
EBIT | 5,565 | 2,896 | 6,562 | 9,949 | 12,025 | 11,700.74 | 13,401.46 | 15,349.40 | 17,580.46 | 20,135.82 |
EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
Depreciation | 1,599 | 1,288 | 1,234 | 1,328 | 1,400 | 2,365.75 | 2,709.62 | 3,103.47 | 3,554.56 | 4,071.23 |
Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Actual | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected | 2028 Projected |
Total Cash | 123,410 | 172,540 | 134,956 | 159,167 | 162,248 | 260,298.31 | 298,133.23 | 341,467.55 | 391,100.60 | 447,947.92 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
Account Receivables | 27,752 | 25,149 | 29,097 | 38,026 | 48,400.37 | 55,435.47 | 63,493.14 | 72,722.01 | 83,292.31 | 95,399.03 |
Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
Inventories | -117,964 | -229,645 | -143,632 | -153,250 | -270,526.53 | -309,848.15 | -354,885.25 | -406,468.59 | -465,549.69 | -533,218.35 |
Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
Accounts Payable | 39 | 32.40 | 38.32 | 45.59 | 62.83 | 71.97 | 82.43 | 94.41 | 108.13 | 123.85 |
Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
Capital Expenditure | -1,380 | -1,123 | -946 | -2,442 | -1,819 | -2,551.13 | -2,921.94 | -3,346.65 | -3,833.10 | -4,390.24 |
Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
Share price | $ 11.29 |
---|---|
Beta | 1.463 |
Diluted Shares Outstanding | 6,216.28 |
Cost of Debt | |
Tax Rate | 35.43 |
After-tax Cost of Debt | 3.23% |
Risk-Free Rate | |
Market Risk Premium | |
Cost of Equity | 11.261 |
Total Debt | 68,707 |
Total Equity | 70,181.79 |
Total Capital | 138,888.79 |
Debt Weighting | 49.47 |
Equity Weighting | 50.53 |
Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Actual | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected | 2028 Projected |
Revenue | 18,336 | 15,235 | 18,015 | 21,435 | 29,542 | 33,835.99 | 38,754.13 | 44,387.13 | 50,838.89 | 58,228.44 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
EBITDA | 7,164 | 4,184 | 7,796 | 11,277 | 13,425 | 14,066.49 | 16,111.08 | 18,452.86 | 21,135.03 | 24,207.05 |
EBIT | 5,565 | 2,896 | 6,562 | 9,949 | 12,025 | 11,700.74 | 13,401.46 | 15,349.40 | 17,580.46 | 20,135.82 |
Tax Rate | 45.11% | 26.51% | 35.79% | 38.61% | 35.43% | 36.29% | 36.29% | 36.29% | 36.29% | 36.29% |
EBIAT | 3,054.75 | 2,128.35 | 4,213.19 | 6,108.12 | 7,764.59 | 7,454.67 | 8,538.22 | 9,779.27 | 11,200.71 | 12,828.76 |
Depreciation | 1,599 | 1,288 | 1,234 | 1,328 | 1,400 | 2,365.75 | 2,709.62 | 3,103.47 | 3,554.56 | 4,071.23 |
Accounts Receivable | - | 2,603 | -3,948 | -8,929 | -10,374.37 | -7,035.10 | -8,057.67 | -9,228.87 | -10,570.30 | -12,106.72 |
Inventories | - | 111,681 | -86,013 | 9,618 | 117,276.53 | 39,321.62 | 45,037.10 | 51,583.34 | 59,081.10 | 67,668.66 |
Accounts Payable | - | -6.60 | 5.91 | 7.27 | 17.24 | 9.13 | 10.46 | 11.98 | 13.72 | 15.72 |
Capital Expenditure | -1,380 | -1,123 | -946 | -2,442 | -1,819 | -2,551.13 | -2,921.94 | -3,346.65 | -3,833.10 | -4,390.24 |
UFCF | 3,273.75 | 116,570.76 | -85,453.90 | 5,690.40 | 114,264.99 | 39,564.95 | 45,315.80 | 51,902.55 | 59,446.70 | 68,087.40 |
WACC | ||||||||||
PV UFCF | 36,876.64 | 39,366.89 | 42,025.31 | 44,863.25 | 47,892.84 | |||||
SUM PV UFCF | 211,024.93 |
Terminal Value
Growth in perpetuity method: | |
---|---|
Long-term growth rate | |
WACC (%) | 7.29 |
Free cash flow (t + 1) | 69,449.15 |
Terminal Value | 1,312,838.42 |
Present Value of Terminal Value | 923,453.54 |
Intrinsic Value
Enterprise Value | 1,134,478.47 |
---|---|
Net Debt | -31,336 |
Equity Value | 1,165,814.47 |
Shares Outstanding | 6,216.28 |
Equity Value Per Share | 187.54 |