Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria, S.... (BBVA)

$6.65

-0.13 (-1.92%)

All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD

Stock DCF: 36.28 | 6.65 | undervalue

Operating Data

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Revenue	26,630	26,127	22,177	22,819	28,200	28,867.55	29,550.90	30,250.43	30,966.52	31,699.56
Revenue (%)
EBITDA	21,066	20,022	11,850	16,124	11,277	18,465.02	18,902.13	19,349.58	19,807.62	20,276.51
EBITDA (%)
EBIT	19,858	18,423	10,562	14,890	9,949	16,930.36	17,331.13	17,741.40	18,161.37	18,591.29
EBIT (%)
Depreciation	1,208	1,599	1,288	1,234	1,328	1,534.67	1,570.99	1,608.18	1,646.25	1,685.22
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Total Cash	118,690	109,867	141,296	134,956	159,167	153,528.13	157,162.45	160,882.80	164,691.22	168,589.80
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables	28,870	27,752	25,149	29,097	32,115.90	32,876.14	33,654.39	34,451.06	35,266.58	36,101.41
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure	-1,495	-1,380	-1,208.19	-1,243.16	-1,536.32	-1,572.68	-1,609.91	-1,648.02	-1,687.03	-1,726.97
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price	$ 6.65
Beta	1.592
Diluted Shares Outstanding	6,401
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate	38.01
After-tax Cost of Debt	3.10%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity	10.895
Total Debt	55,429
Total Equity	42,566.65
Total Capital	97,995.65
Debt Weighting	56.56
Equity Weighting	43.44
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Revenue	26,630	26,127	22,177	22,819	28,200	28,867.55	29,550.90	30,250.43	30,966.52	31,699.56
EBITDA	21,066	20,022	11,850	16,124	11,277	18,465.02	18,902.13	19,349.58	19,807.62	20,276.51
EBIT	19,858	18,423	10,562	14,890	9,949	16,930.36	17,331.13	17,741.40	18,161.37	18,591.29
Tax Rate	36.96%	45.11%	75.13%	35.79%	38.01%	46.20%	46.20%	46.20%	46.20%	46.20%
EBIAT	12,517.64	10,112.78	2,626.41	9,560.26	6,167.69	9,108.31	9,323.92	9,544.64	9,770.58	10,001.87
Depreciation	1,208	1,599	1,288	1,234	1,328	1,534.67	1,570.99	1,608.18	1,646.25	1,685.22
Accounts Receivable	-	1,118	2,603	-3,948	-3,018.90	-760.25	-778.25	-796.67	-815.53	-834.83
Inventories	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Accounts Payable	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Capital Expenditure	-1,495	-1,380	-1,208.19	-946	-2,442	-1,572.68	-1,609.91	-1,648.02	-1,687.03	-1,726.97
UFCF	12,230.64	11,449.78	5,309.22	5,603.09	2,940.48	8,310.04	8,506.76	8,708.13	8,914.27	9,125.29
WACC
PV UFCF						7,803.59	7,501.47	7,211.05	6,931.87	6,663.50
SUM PV UFCF										36,111.48

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%)	6.49
Free cash flow (t + 1)	9,307.79
Terminal Value	207,300.56
Present Value of Terminal Value	151,375.76

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value	187,487.24
Net Debt	-44,758
Equity Value	232,245.24
Shares Outstanding	6,401
Equity Value Per Share	36.28