Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
The Brink's Company (BCO)
$64.49
-0.52 (-0.80%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Revenue | 3,347 | 3,488.90 | 3,683.20 | 3,690.90 | 4,200.20 | 4,450.29 | 4,715.26 | 4,996.02 | 5,293.49 | 5,608.67 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| EBITDA | 354.80 | 265.70 | 366.70 | 375.90 | 577.20 | 463.71 | 491.32 | 520.57 | 551.57 | 584.41 |
| EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
| EBIT | 208.20 | 103.40 | 181.70 | 169.10 | 337.70 | 237.99 | 252.16 | 267.18 | 283.09 | 299.94 |
| EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
| Depreciation | 146.60 | 162.30 | 185 | 206.80 | 239.50 | 225.72 | 239.16 | 253.40 | 268.48 | 284.47 |
| Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Total Cash | 614.30 | 343.40 | 311 | 620.90 | 710.30 | 626.37 | 663.66 | 703.18 | 745.04 | 789.41 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
| Account Receivables | 663.40 | 637.10 | 661.30 | 702.60 | 720.20 | 820.80 | 869.67 | 921.45 | 976.32 | 1,034.45 |
| Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
| Inventories | 4.80 | 5.80 | 5.70 | 5.71 | 6.50 | 6.89 | 7.30 | 7.74 | 8.20 | 8.68 |
| Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
| Accounts Payable | 174.60 | 174.60 | 184.50 | 206 | 211.20 | 229.99 | 243.68 | 258.19 | 273.57 | 289.85 |
| Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -174.50 | -155.10 | -164.80 | -118.50 | -167.90 | -189.95 | -201.26 | -213.25 | -225.94 | -239.40 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 64.49 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 1.326 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 50.80 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | 55.33 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 1.52% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 9.893 |
| Total Debt | 3,285.80 |
| Total Equity | 3,276.09 |
| Total Capital | 6,561.89 |
| Debt Weighting | 50.07 |
| Equity Weighting | 49.93 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Revenue | 3,347 | 3,488.90 | 3,683.20 | 3,690.90 | 4,200.20 | 4,450.29 | 4,715.26 | 4,996.02 | 5,293.49 | 5,608.67 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | 354.80 | 265.70 | 366.70 | 375.90 | 577.20 | 463.71 | 491.32 | 520.57 | 551.57 | 584.41 |
| EBIT | 208.20 | 103.40 | 181.70 | 169.10 | 337.70 | 237.99 | 252.16 | 267.18 | 283.09 | 299.94 |
| Tax Rate | 90.80% | 178.35% | 68.98% | 79.82% | 55.33% | 94.66% | 94.66% | 94.66% | 94.66% | 94.66% |
| EBIAT | 19.16 | -81.02 | 56.36 | 34.12 | 150.85 | 12.71 | 13.47 | 14.27 | 15.12 | 16.02 |
| Depreciation | 146.60 | 162.30 | 185 | 206.80 | 239.50 | 225.72 | 239.16 | 253.40 | 268.48 | 284.47 |
| Accounts Receivable | - | 26.30 | -24.20 | -41.30 | -17.60 | -100.60 | -48.87 | -51.78 | -54.86 | -58.13 |
| Inventories | - | -1 | 0.10 | -0.01 | -0.79 | -0.39 | -0.41 | -0.43 | -0.46 | -0.49 |
| Accounts Payable | - | 0 | 9.90 | 21.50 | 5.20 | 18.79 | 13.69 | 14.51 | 15.37 | 16.29 |
| Capital Expenditure | -174.50 | -155.10 | -164.80 | -118.50 | -167.90 | -189.95 | -201.26 | -213.25 | -225.94 | -239.40 |
| UFCF | -8.74 | -48.52 | 62.35 | 102.61 | 209.27 | -33.72 | 15.78 | 16.72 | 17.71 | 18.77 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV UFCF | -31.90 | 14.12 | 14.16 | 14.19 | 14.22 | |||||
| SUM PV UFCF | 24.79 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 5.70 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | 19.14 |
| Terminal Value | 517.37 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | 392.13 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | 416.92 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | 2,575.50 |
| Equity Value | -2,158.58 |
| Shares Outstanding | 50.80 |
| Equity Value Per Share | -42.49 |