Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

The Brink's Company (BCO)

$64.49

-0.52 (-0.80%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: -42.49 | 64.49 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 3,3473,488.903,683.203,690.904,200.204,450.294,715.264,996.025,293.495,608.67
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 354.80265.70366.70375.90577.20463.71491.32520.57551.57584.41
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 208.20103.40181.70169.10337.70237.99252.16267.18283.09299.94
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 146.60162.30185206.80239.50225.72239.16253.40268.48284.47
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 614.30343.40311620.90710.30626.37663.66703.18745.04789.41
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 663.40637.10661.30702.60720.20820.80869.67921.45976.321,034.45
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 4.805.805.705.716.506.897.307.748.208.68
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 174.60174.60184.50206211.20229.99243.68258.19273.57289.85
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -174.50-155.10-164.80-118.50-167.90-189.95-201.26-213.25-225.94-239.40
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 64.49
Beta 1.326
Diluted Shares Outstanding 50.80
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 55.33
After-tax Cost of Debt 1.52%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 9.893
Total Debt 3,285.80
Total Equity 3,276.09
Total Capital 6,561.89
Debt Weighting 50.07
Equity Weighting 49.93
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 3,3473,488.903,683.203,690.904,200.204,450.294,715.264,996.025,293.495,608.67
EBITDA 354.80265.70366.70375.90577.20463.71491.32520.57551.57584.41
EBIT 208.20103.40181.70169.10337.70237.99252.16267.18283.09299.94
Tax Rate 90.80%178.35%68.98%79.82%55.33%94.66%94.66%94.66%94.66%94.66%
EBIAT 19.16-81.0256.3634.12150.8512.7113.4714.2715.1216.02
Depreciation 146.60162.30185206.80239.50225.72239.16253.40268.48284.47
Accounts Receivable -26.30-24.20-41.30-17.60-100.60-48.87-51.78-54.86-58.13
Inventories --10.10-0.01-0.79-0.39-0.41-0.43-0.46-0.49
Accounts Payable -09.9021.505.2018.7913.6914.5115.3716.29
Capital Expenditure -174.50-155.10-164.80-118.50-167.90-189.95-201.26-213.25-225.94-239.40
UFCF -8.74-48.5262.35102.61209.27-33.7215.7816.7217.7118.77
WACC
PV UFCF -31.9014.1214.1614.1914.22
SUM PV UFCF 24.79

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 5.70
Free cash flow (t + 1) 19.14
Terminal Value 517.37
Present Value of Terminal Value 392.13

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 416.92
Net Debt 2,575.50
Equity Value -2,158.58
Shares Outstanding 50.80
Equity Value Per Share -42.49