Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Becton, Dickinson and Company (BDX)
$262.74
+3.94 (+1.52%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
Revenue | 15,983 | 17,290 | 17,117 | 20,248 | 18,870 | 19,750.43 | 20,671.93 | 21,636.43 | 22,645.94 | 23,702.54 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
EBITDA | 2,623 | 4,535 | 3,976 | 5,169 | 4,602 | 4,573.60 | 4,787 | 5,010.35 | 5,244.12 | 5,488.80 |
EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
EBIT | 645 | 2,282 | 1,822 | 2,896 | 2,373 | 2,162.93 | 2,263.84 | 2,369.47 | 2,480.02 | 2,595.73 |
EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
Depreciation | 1,978 | 2,253 | 2,154 | 2,273 | 2,229 | 2,410.68 | 2,523.15 | 2,640.88 | 2,764.09 | 2,893.06 |
Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
Total Cash | 1,157 | 566 | 2,845 | 2,295 | 1,014 | 1,731.78 | 1,812.58 | 1,897.15 | 1,985.66 | 2,078.31 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
Account Receivables | 2,319 | 2,335 | 2,398 | 2,497 | 2,191 | 2,605.74 | 2,727.32 | 2,854.57 | 2,987.75 | 3,127.15 |
Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
Inventories | 2,451 | 2,579 | 2,743 | 2,866 | 3,224 | 3,061.95 | 3,204.81 | 3,354.34 | 3,510.84 | 3,674.65 |
Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
Accounts Payable | 1,106 | 1,092 | 1,355 | 1,793 | 1,699 | 1,540.95 | 1,612.85 | 1,688.10 | 1,766.87 | 1,849.30 |
Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
Capital Expenditure | -895 | -957 | -810 | -1,231 | -973 | -1,070.58 | -1,120.53 | -1,172.81 | -1,227.54 | -1,284.81 |
Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
Share price | $ 262.74 |
---|---|
Beta | 0.587 |
Diluted Shares Outstanding | 287.36 |
Cost of Debt | |
Tax Rate | 0.22 |
After-tax Cost of Debt | 2.47% |
Risk-Free Rate | |
Market Risk Premium | |
Cost of Equity | 7.370 |
Total Debt | 16,065 |
Total Equity | 75,502.02 |
Total Capital | 91,567.02 |
Debt Weighting | 17.54 |
Equity Weighting | 82.46 |
Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
Revenue | 15,983 | 17,290 | 17,117 | 20,248 | 18,870 | 19,750.43 | 20,671.93 | 21,636.43 | 22,645.94 | 23,702.54 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
EBITDA | 2,623 | 4,535 | 3,976 | 5,169 | 4,602 | 4,573.60 | 4,787 | 5,010.35 | 5,244.12 | 5,488.80 |
EBIT | 645 | 2,282 | 1,822 | 2,896 | 2,373 | 2,162.93 | 2,263.84 | 2,369.47 | 2,480.02 | 2,595.73 |
Tax Rate | 73.49% | -4.90% | 11.27% | 6.69% | 0.22% | 17.35% | 17.35% | 17.35% | 17.35% | 17.35% |
EBIAT | 171.01 | 2,393.84 | 1,616.68 | 2,702.24 | 2,367.68 | 1,787.58 | 1,870.98 | 1,958.27 | 2,049.64 | 2,145.27 |
Depreciation | 1,978 | 2,253 | 2,154 | 2,273 | 2,229 | 2,410.68 | 2,523.15 | 2,640.88 | 2,764.09 | 2,893.06 |
Accounts Receivable | - | -16 | -63 | -99 | 306 | -414.74 | -121.58 | -127.25 | -133.19 | -139.40 |
Inventories | - | -128 | -164 | -123 | -358 | 162.05 | -142.86 | -149.53 | -156.51 | -163.81 |
Accounts Payable | - | -14 | 263 | 438 | -94 | -158.05 | 71.90 | 75.25 | 78.76 | 82.44 |
Capital Expenditure | -895 | -957 | -810 | -1,231 | -973 | -1,070.58 | -1,120.53 | -1,172.81 | -1,227.54 | -1,284.81 |
UFCF | 1,254.01 | 3,531.84 | 2,996.68 | 3,960.24 | 3,477.68 | 2,716.94 | 3,081.06 | 3,224.81 | 3,375.27 | 3,532.75 |
WACC | ||||||||||
PV UFCF | 2,550.88 | 2,715.93 | 2,668.90 | 2,622.69 | 2,577.28 | |||||
SUM PV UFCF | 13,135.68 |
Terminal Value
Growth in perpetuity method: | |
---|---|
Long-term growth rate | |
WACC (%) | 6.51 |
Free cash flow (t + 1) | 3,603.41 |
Terminal Value | 79,898.20 |
Present Value of Terminal Value | 58,288.80 |
Intrinsic Value
Enterprise Value | 71,424.48 |
---|---|
Net Debt | 15,059 |
Equity Value | 56,365.48 |
Shares Outstanding | 287.36 |
Equity Value Per Share | 196.15 |