Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Becton, Dickinson and Company (BDX)
$251.79
+3.68 (+1.48%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
Revenue | 15,983 | 17,290 | 17,117 | 20,248 | 18,870 | 19,750.43 | 20,671.93 | 21,636.43 | 22,645.94 | 23,702.54 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
EBITDA | 3,857 | 4,068 | 3,667 | 4,984 | 4,410 | 4,624.30 | 4,840.06 | 5,065.88 | 5,302.24 | 5,549.63 |
EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
EBIT | 1,879 | 1,815 | 1,513 | 2,711 | 2,181 | 2,213.62 | 2,316.90 | 2,425 | 2,538.15 | 2,656.57 |
EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
Depreciation | 1,978 | 2,253 | 2,154 | 2,273 | 2,229 | 2,410.68 | 2,523.15 | 2,640.88 | 2,764.09 | 2,893.06 |
Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
Total Cash | 1,157 | 566 | 2,845 | 2,295 | 1,014 | 1,731.78 | 1,812.58 | 1,897.15 | 1,985.66 | 2,078.31 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
Account Receivables | 2,319 | 2,345 | 2,398 | 2,497 | 2,191 | 2,608.02 | 2,729.71 | 2,857.07 | 2,990.37 | 3,129.90 |
Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
Inventories | 2,451 | 2,579 | 2,743 | 2,866 | 3,224 | 3,061.95 | 3,204.81 | 3,354.34 | 3,510.84 | 3,674.65 |
Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
Accounts Payable | 1,106 | 1,092 | 1,355 | 1,793 | 1.70 | 1,185.66 | 1,240.98 | 1,298.88 | 1,359.48 | 1,422.91 |
Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
Capital Expenditure | -895 | -957 | -810 | -1,231 | -973 | -1,070.58 | -1,120.53 | -1,172.81 | -1,227.54 | -1,284.81 |
Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
Share price | $ 251.79 |
---|---|
Beta | 0.565 |
Diluted Shares Outstanding | 292.09 |
Cost of Debt | |
Tax Rate | 8.30 |
After-tax Cost of Debt | 2.48% |
Risk-Free Rate | |
Market Risk Premium | |
Cost of Equity | 6.357 |
Total Debt | 14,763 |
Total Equity | 73,545.09 |
Total Capital | 88,308.09 |
Debt Weighting | 16.72 |
Equity Weighting | 83.28 |
Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
Revenue | 15,983 | 17,290 | 17,117 | 20,248 | 18,870 | 19,750.43 | 20,671.93 | 21,636.43 | 22,645.94 | 23,702.54 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
EBITDA | 3,857 | 4,068 | 3,667 | 4,984 | 4,410 | 4,624.30 | 4,840.06 | 5,065.88 | 5,302.24 | 5,549.63 |
EBIT | 1,879 | 1,815 | 1,513 | 2,711 | 2,181 | 2,213.62 | 2,316.90 | 2,425 | 2,538.15 | 2,656.57 |
Tax Rate | 73.49% | -4.85% | 11.27% | 6.69% | 8.30% | 18.98% | 18.98% | 18.98% | 18.98% | 18.98% |
EBIAT | 498.18 | 1,902.97 | 1,342.50 | 2,529.62 | 1,999.96 | 1,793.48 | 1,877.15 | 1,964.74 | 2,056.41 | 2,152.35 |
Depreciation | 1,978 | 2,253 | 2,154 | 2,273 | 2,229 | 2,410.68 | 2,523.15 | 2,640.88 | 2,764.09 | 2,893.06 |
Accounts Receivable | - | -26 | -53 | -99 | 306 | -417.02 | -121.68 | -127.36 | -133.30 | -139.52 |
Inventories | - | -128 | -164 | -123 | -358 | 162.05 | -142.86 | -149.53 | -156.51 | -163.81 |
Accounts Payable | - | -14 | 263 | 438 | -1,791.30 | 1,183.96 | 55.32 | 57.90 | 60.60 | 63.43 |
Capital Expenditure | -895 | -957 | -810 | -1,231 | -973 | -1,070.58 | -1,120.53 | -1,172.81 | -1,227.54 | -1,284.81 |
UFCF | 1,581.18 | 3,030.97 | 2,732.50 | 3,787.62 | 1,412.66 | 4,062.55 | 3,070.55 | 3,213.81 | 3,363.76 | 3,520.70 |
WACC | ||||||||||
PV UFCF | 3,843.11 | 2,747.79 | 2,720.65 | 2,693.77 | 2,667.16 | |||||
SUM PV UFCF | 14,672.48 |
Terminal Value
Growth in perpetuity method: | |
---|---|
Long-term growth rate | |
WACC (%) | 5.71 |
Free cash flow (t + 1) | 3,591.12 |
Terminal Value | 96,795.66 |
Present Value of Terminal Value | 73,328.96 |
Intrinsic Value
Enterprise Value | 88,001.44 |
---|---|
Net Debt | 13,757 |
Equity Value | 74,244.44 |
Shares Outstanding | 292.09 |
Equity Value Per Share | 254.18 |