Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Becton, Dickinson and Company (BDX)

$262.74

+3.94 (+1.52%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 196.15 | 262.74 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 15,98317,29017,11720,24818,87019,750.4320,671.9321,636.4322,645.9423,702.54
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 2,6234,5353,9765,1694,6024,573.604,7875,010.355,244.125,488.80
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 6452,2821,8222,8962,3732,162.932,263.842,369.472,480.022,595.73
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 1,9782,2532,1542,2732,2292,410.682,523.152,640.882,764.092,893.06
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Total Cash 1,1575662,8452,2951,0141,731.781,812.581,897.151,985.662,078.31
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 2,3192,3352,3982,4972,1912,605.742,727.322,854.572,987.753,127.15
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 2,4512,5792,7432,8663,2243,061.953,204.813,354.343,510.843,674.65
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 1,1061,0921,3551,7931,6991,540.951,612.851,688.101,766.871,849.30
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -895-957-810-1,231-973-1,070.58-1,120.53-1,172.81-1,227.54-1,284.81
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 262.74
Beta 0.587
Diluted Shares Outstanding 287.36
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 0.22
After-tax Cost of Debt 2.47%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 7.370
Total Debt 16,065
Total Equity 75,502.02
Total Capital 91,567.02
Debt Weighting 17.54
Equity Weighting 82.46
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 15,98317,29017,11720,24818,87019,750.4320,671.9321,636.4322,645.9423,702.54
EBITDA 2,6234,5353,9765,1694,6024,573.604,7875,010.355,244.125,488.80
EBIT 6452,2821,8222,8962,3732,162.932,263.842,369.472,480.022,595.73
Tax Rate 73.49%-4.90%11.27%6.69%0.22%17.35%17.35%17.35%17.35%17.35%
EBIAT 171.012,393.841,616.682,702.242,367.681,787.581,870.981,958.272,049.642,145.27
Depreciation 1,9782,2532,1542,2732,2292,410.682,523.152,640.882,764.092,893.06
Accounts Receivable --16-63-99306-414.74-121.58-127.25-133.19-139.40
Inventories --128-164-123-358162.05-142.86-149.53-156.51-163.81
Accounts Payable --14263438-94-158.0571.9075.2578.7682.44
Capital Expenditure -895-957-810-1,231-973-1,070.58-1,120.53-1,172.81-1,227.54-1,284.81
UFCF 1,254.013,531.842,996.683,960.243,477.682,716.943,081.063,224.813,375.273,532.75
WACC
PV UFCF 2,550.882,715.932,668.902,622.692,577.28
SUM PV UFCF 13,135.68

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 6.51
Free cash flow (t + 1) 3,603.41
Terminal Value 79,898.20
Present Value of Terminal Value 58,288.80

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 71,424.48
Net Debt 15,059
Equity Value 56,365.48
Shares Outstanding 287.36
Equity Value Per Share 196.15