Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Becton, Dickinson and Company (BDX)

$262.74

+3.94 (+1.52%)

All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD

Stock DCF: 196.15 | 262.74 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Revenue	15,983	17,290	17,117	20,248	18,870	19,750.43	20,671.93	21,636.43	22,645.94	23,702.54
Revenue (%)
EBITDA	2,623	4,535	3,976	5,169	4,602	4,573.60	4,787	5,010.35	5,244.12	5,488.80
EBITDA (%)
EBIT	645	2,282	1,822	2,896	2,373	2,162.93	2,263.84	2,369.47	2,480.02	2,595.73
EBIT (%)
Depreciation	1,978	2,253	2,154	2,273	2,229	2,410.68	2,523.15	2,640.88	2,764.09	2,893.06
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Total Cash	1,157	566	2,845	2,295	1,014	1,731.78	1,812.58	1,897.15	1,985.66	2,078.31
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables	2,319	2,335	2,398	2,497	2,191	2,605.74	2,727.32	2,854.57	2,987.75	3,127.15
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories	2,451	2,579	2,743	2,866	3,224	3,061.95	3,204.81	3,354.34	3,510.84	3,674.65
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable	1,106	1,092	1,355	1,793	1,699	1,540.95	1,612.85	1,688.10	1,766.87	1,849.30
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure	-895	-957	-810	-1,231	-973	-1,070.58	-1,120.53	-1,172.81	-1,227.54	-1,284.81
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price	$ 262.74
Beta	0.587
Diluted Shares Outstanding	287.36
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate	0.22
After-tax Cost of Debt	2.47%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity	7.370
Total Debt	16,065
Total Equity	75,502.02
Total Capital	91,567.02
Debt Weighting	17.54
Equity Weighting	82.46
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Revenue	15,983	17,290	17,117	20,248	18,870	19,750.43	20,671.93	21,636.43	22,645.94	23,702.54
EBITDA	2,623	4,535	3,976	5,169	4,602	4,573.60	4,787	5,010.35	5,244.12	5,488.80
EBIT	645	2,282	1,822	2,896	2,373	2,162.93	2,263.84	2,369.47	2,480.02	2,595.73
Tax Rate	73.49%	-4.90%	11.27%	6.69%	0.22%	17.35%	17.35%	17.35%	17.35%	17.35%
EBIAT	171.01	2,393.84	1,616.68	2,702.24	2,367.68	1,787.58	1,870.98	1,958.27	2,049.64	2,145.27
Depreciation	1,978	2,253	2,154	2,273	2,229	2,410.68	2,523.15	2,640.88	2,764.09	2,893.06
Accounts Receivable	-	-16	-63	-99	306	-414.74	-121.58	-127.25	-133.19	-139.40
Inventories	-	-128	-164	-123	-358	162.05	-142.86	-149.53	-156.51	-163.81
Accounts Payable	-	-14	263	438	-94	-158.05	71.90	75.25	78.76	82.44
Capital Expenditure	-895	-957	-810	-1,231	-973	-1,070.58	-1,120.53	-1,172.81	-1,227.54	-1,284.81
UFCF	1,254.01	3,531.84	2,996.68	3,960.24	3,477.68	2,716.94	3,081.06	3,224.81	3,375.27	3,532.75
WACC
PV UFCF						2,550.88	2,715.93	2,668.90	2,622.69	2,577.28
SUM PV UFCF										13,135.68

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%)	6.51
Free cash flow (t + 1)	3,603.41
Terminal Value	79,898.20
Present Value of Terminal Value	58,288.80

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value	71,424.48
Net Debt	15,059
Equity Value	56,365.48
Shares Outstanding	287.36
Equity Value Per Share	196.15