Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Bright Scholar Education Holdings L... (BEDU)
$2.44
+0.05 (+2.09%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 275.02 | 410.08 | 538.64 | 224.28 | 274.39 | 304.87 | 338.74 | 376.37 | 418.18 | 464.63 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| EBITDA | 68.40 | 76.28 | 44.49 | 69.25 | 3.44 | 51.13 | 56.81 | 63.13 | 70.14 | 77.93 |
| EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
| EBIT | 54.66 | 55.35 | 12.90 | 33.77 | -18.36 | 26.91 | 29.90 | 33.22 | 36.91 | 41.01 |
| EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
| Depreciation | 13.74 | 20.93 | 31.59 | 35.48 | 21.80 | 24.22 | 26.92 | 29.91 | 33.23 | 36.92 |
| Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Total Cash | 504.62 | 558.12 | 542.62 | 135.15 | 106.36 | 316.66 | 351.84 | 390.93 | 434.36 | 482.61 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
| Account Receivables | 3.51 | 16.62 | 18.04 | 335.39 | 52.78 | 108.20 | 120.22 | 133.57 | 148.41 | 164.90 |
| Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
| Inventories | 1.47 | 4.20 | 4.48 | 1.21 | 1.10 | 2.03 | 2.26 | 2.51 | 2.79 | 3.10 |
| Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
| Accounts Payable | 10.18 | 15.09 | 14.89 | 11.75 | 16.04 | 12.94 | 14.38 | 15.98 | 17.75 | 19.72 |
| Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -18.81 | -24.83 | -23.96 | -25.39 | -19.66 | -21.85 | -24.27 | -26.97 | -29.97 | -33.29 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 2.44 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 0.567 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 29.81 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | -171.88 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 7.54% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 6.241 |
| Total Debt | 271.19 |
| Total Equity | 72.72 |
| Total Capital | 343.92 |
| Debt Weighting | 78.85 |
| Equity Weighting | 21.15 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 275.02 | 410.08 | 538.64 | 224.28 | 274.39 | 304.87 | 338.74 | 376.37 | 418.18 | 464.63 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | 68.40 | 76.28 | 44.49 | 69.25 | 3.44 | 51.13 | 56.81 | 63.13 | 70.14 | 77.93 |
| EBIT | 54.66 | 55.35 | 12.90 | 33.77 | -18.36 | 26.91 | 29.90 | 33.22 | 36.91 | 41.01 |
| Tax Rate | 21.93% | 27.72% | 33.95% | 88.00% | -171.88% | -0.06% | -0.06% | -0.06% | -0.06% | -0.06% |
| EBIAT | 42.68 | 40 | 8.52 | 4.05 | -49.92 | 26.93 | 29.92 | 33.24 | 36.93 | 41.04 |
| Depreciation | 13.74 | 20.93 | 31.59 | 35.48 | 21.80 | 24.22 | 26.92 | 29.91 | 33.23 | 36.92 |
| Accounts Receivable | - | -13.11 | -1.42 | -317.34 | 282.61 | -55.42 | -12.02 | -13.36 | -14.84 | -16.49 |
| Inventories | - | -2.73 | -0.28 | 3.27 | 0.11 | -0.93 | -0.23 | -0.25 | -0.28 | -0.31 |
| Accounts Payable | - | 4.91 | -0.19 | -3.15 | 4.29 | -3.09 | 1.44 | 1.60 | 1.77 | 1.97 |
| Capital Expenditure | -18.81 | -24.83 | -23.96 | -25.39 | -19.66 | -21.85 | -24.27 | -26.97 | -29.97 | -33.29 |
| UFCF | 37.61 | 25.18 | 14.25 | -303.08 | 239.24 | -30.14 | 21.75 | 24.17 | 26.85 | 29.84 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV UFCF | -28.10 | 18.90 | 19.58 | 20.28 | 21.01 | |||||
| SUM PV UFCF | 51.67 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 7.27 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | 30.43 |
| Terminal Value | 577.47 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | 406.57 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | 458.24 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | 164.83 |
| Equity Value | 293.41 |
| Shares Outstanding | 29.81 |
| Equity Value Per Share | 9.84 |