Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Berry Global Group, Inc. (BERY)
$61.46
+0.68 (+1.12%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
Revenue | 7,869 | 8,878 | 11,709 | 13,850 | 14,495 | 16,946.55 | 19,812.74 | 23,163.69 | 27,081.39 | 31,661.69 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
EBITDA | 880 | 914 | 1,993 | 2,095 | 2,039 | 2,294.31 | 2,682.35 | 3,136.02 | 3,666.42 | 4,286.52 |
EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
EBIT | 342 | 301 | 1,148 | 1,241 | 1,220 | 1,183.48 | 1,383.64 | 1,617.66 | 1,891.25 | 2,211.12 |
EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
Depreciation | 538 | 613 | 845 | 854 | 819 | 1,110.83 | 1,298.71 | 1,518.36 | 1,775.16 | 2,075.40 |
Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
Total Cash | 381 | 750 | 750 | 1,091 | 1,410 | 1,264.20 | 1,478.02 | 1,728 | 2,020.26 | 2,361.94 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
Account Receivables | 941 | 1,526 | 1,469 | 1,879 | 1,777 | 2,288.43 | 2,675.47 | 3,127.98 | 3,657.01 | 4,275.53 |
Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
Inventories | 887 | 1,324 | 1,268 | 1,907 | 1,802 | 2,142.57 | 2,504.94 | 2,928.61 | 3,423.92 | 4,003.02 |
Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
Accounts Payable | 783 | 1,159 | 1,115 | 2,041 | 1,795 | 2,021.65 | 2,363.57 | 2,763.33 | 3,230.69 | 3,777.10 |
Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
Capital Expenditure | -336 | -399 | -583 | -676 | -687 | -791.87 | -925.80 | -1,082.38 | -1,265.44 | -1,479.47 |
Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
Share price | $ 61.46 |
---|---|
Beta | 1.164 |
Diluted Shares Outstanding | 138.30 |
Cost of Debt | |
Tax Rate | 17.99 |
After-tax Cost of Debt | 2.42% |
Risk-Free Rate | |
Market Risk Premium | |
Cost of Equity | 9.193 |
Total Debt | 9,684 |
Total Equity | 8,499.92 |
Total Capital | 18,183.92 |
Debt Weighting | 53.26 |
Equity Weighting | 46.74 |
Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
Revenue | 7,869 | 8,878 | 11,709 | 13,850 | 14,495 | 16,946.55 | 19,812.74 | 23,163.69 | 27,081.39 | 31,661.69 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
EBITDA | 880 | 914 | 1,993 | 2,095 | 2,039 | 2,294.31 | 2,682.35 | 3,136.02 | 3,666.42 | 4,286.52 |
EBIT | 342 | 301 | 1,148 | 1,241 | 1,220 | 1,183.48 | 1,383.64 | 1,617.66 | 1,891.25 | 2,211.12 |
Tax Rate | -3.98% | 17.55% | 21.60% | 19.01% | 17.99% | 14.43% | 14.43% | 14.43% | 14.43% | 14.43% |
EBIAT | 355.62 | 248.17 | 900.04 | 1,005.14 | 1,000.56 | 1,012.68 | 1,183.96 | 1,384.20 | 1,618.31 | 1,892.02 |
Depreciation | 538 | 613 | 845 | 854 | 819 | 1,110.83 | 1,298.71 | 1,518.36 | 1,775.16 | 2,075.40 |
Accounts Receivable | - | -585 | 57 | -410 | 102 | -511.43 | -387.04 | -452.51 | -529.04 | -618.51 |
Inventories | - | -437 | 56 | -639 | 105 | -340.57 | -362.37 | -423.66 | -495.32 | -579.09 |
Accounts Payable | - | 376 | -44 | 926 | -246 | 226.65 | 341.92 | 399.75 | 467.36 | 546.41 |
Capital Expenditure | -336 | -399 | -583 | -676 | -687 | -791.87 | -925.80 | -1,082.38 | -1,265.44 | -1,479.47 |
UFCF | 557.62 | -183.83 | 1,231.04 | 1,060.14 | 1,093.56 | 706.30 | 1,149.37 | 1,343.77 | 1,571.04 | 1,836.75 |
WACC | ||||||||||
PV UFCF | 668.91 | 1,030.90 | 1,141.45 | 1,263.85 | 1,399.38 | |||||
SUM PV UFCF | 5,504.49 |
Terminal Value
Growth in perpetuity method: | |
---|---|
Long-term growth rate | |
WACC (%) | 5.59 |
Free cash flow (t + 1) | 1,873.49 |
Terminal Value | 52,186.33 |
Present Value of Terminal Value | 39,759.67 |
Intrinsic Value
Enterprise Value | 45,264.17 |
---|---|
Net Debt | 8,274 |
Equity Value | 36,990.17 |
Shares Outstanding | 138.30 |
Equity Value Per Share | 267.46 |