Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Business First Bancshares, Inc. (BFST)

$22.06

-0.06 (-0.27%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 224.54 | 22.06 | undervalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 49.9970.0190.91149.21186.56260.75364.43509.35711.90994.99
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 17.3632.5154.7162.0585.27119.24166.65232.92325.54455
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 16.1831.3453.1258.8981.11113.95159.26222.60311.11434.83
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 1.181.171.593.164.165.297.3910.3214.4320.17
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 286.74405.59367.56789.741,089.441,392.651,946.442,720.463,802.275,314.27
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 4.118.228.0223.8919.6028.8540.3256.3578.76110.07
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories ----------
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 0.891.371.532.501.354.085.717.9811.1515.58
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -0.50-0.92-3.96-2.97-4.04-5.65-7.90-11.04-15.43-21.56
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 22.06
Beta 0.834
Diluted Shares Outstanding 18.24
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 19.24
After-tax Cost of Debt 7.94%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 7.879
Total Debt 168.47
Total Equity 402.45
Total Capital 570.92
Debt Weighting 29.51
Equity Weighting 70.49
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 49.9970.0190.91149.21186.56260.75364.43509.35711.90994.99
EBITDA 17.3632.5154.7162.0585.27119.24166.65232.92325.54455
EBIT 16.1831.3453.1258.8981.11113.95159.26222.60311.11434.83
Tax Rate 45.84%18.88%20.37%18.45%19.24%24.56%24.56%24.56%24.56%24.56%
EBIAT 8.7625.4242.3048.0265.5085.97120.15167.94234.72328.05
Depreciation 1.181.171.593.164.165.297.3910.3214.4320.17
Accounts Receivable --4.110.20-15.874.30-9.25-11.47-16.03-22.41-31.32
Inventories ----------
Accounts Payable -0.480.160.97-1.142.731.622.273.174.43
Capital Expenditure -0.51-0.92-3.96-2.97-4.04-5.65-7.90-11.04-15.43-21.56
UFCF 9.4422.0440.2933.3168.7879.08109.80153.46214.48299.77
WACC
PV UFCF 73.2994.31122.16158.24204.97
SUM PV UFCF 652.97

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 7.90
Free cash flow (t + 1) 305.77
Terminal Value 5,182.53
Present Value of Terminal Value 3,543.52

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 4,196.49
Net Debt 100.09
Equity Value 4,096.39
Shares Outstanding 18.24
Equity Value Per Share 224.54