Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Business First Bancshares, Inc. (BFST)
$22.06
-0.06 (-0.27%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Revenue | 49.99 | 70.01 | 90.91 | 149.21 | 186.56 | 260.75 | 364.43 | 509.35 | 711.90 | 994.99 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| EBITDA | 17.36 | 32.51 | 54.71 | 62.05 | 85.27 | 119.24 | 166.65 | 232.92 | 325.54 | 455 |
| EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
| EBIT | 16.18 | 31.34 | 53.12 | 58.89 | 81.11 | 113.95 | 159.26 | 222.60 | 311.11 | 434.83 |
| EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
| Depreciation | 1.18 | 1.17 | 1.59 | 3.16 | 4.16 | 5.29 | 7.39 | 10.32 | 14.43 | 20.17 |
| Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Total Cash | 286.74 | 405.59 | 367.56 | 789.74 | 1,089.44 | 1,392.65 | 1,946.44 | 2,720.46 | 3,802.27 | 5,314.27 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
| Account Receivables | 4.11 | 8.22 | 8.02 | 23.89 | 19.60 | 28.85 | 40.32 | 56.35 | 78.76 | 110.07 |
| Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
| Inventories | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
| Accounts Payable | 0.89 | 1.37 | 1.53 | 2.50 | 1.35 | 4.08 | 5.71 | 7.98 | 11.15 | 15.58 |
| Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -0.50 | -0.92 | -3.96 | -2.97 | -4.04 | -5.65 | -7.90 | -11.04 | -15.43 | -21.56 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 22.06 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 0.834 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 18.24 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | 19.24 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 7.94% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 7.879 |
| Total Debt | 168.47 |
| Total Equity | 402.45 |
| Total Capital | 570.92 |
| Debt Weighting | 29.51 |
| Equity Weighting | 70.49 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Revenue | 49.99 | 70.01 | 90.91 | 149.21 | 186.56 | 260.75 | 364.43 | 509.35 | 711.90 | 994.99 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | 17.36 | 32.51 | 54.71 | 62.05 | 85.27 | 119.24 | 166.65 | 232.92 | 325.54 | 455 |
| EBIT | 16.18 | 31.34 | 53.12 | 58.89 | 81.11 | 113.95 | 159.26 | 222.60 | 311.11 | 434.83 |
| Tax Rate | 45.84% | 18.88% | 20.37% | 18.45% | 19.24% | 24.56% | 24.56% | 24.56% | 24.56% | 24.56% |
| EBIAT | 8.76 | 25.42 | 42.30 | 48.02 | 65.50 | 85.97 | 120.15 | 167.94 | 234.72 | 328.05 |
| Depreciation | 1.18 | 1.17 | 1.59 | 3.16 | 4.16 | 5.29 | 7.39 | 10.32 | 14.43 | 20.17 |
| Accounts Receivable | - | -4.11 | 0.20 | -15.87 | 4.30 | -9.25 | -11.47 | -16.03 | -22.41 | -31.32 |
| Inventories | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Accounts Payable | - | 0.48 | 0.16 | 0.97 | -1.14 | 2.73 | 1.62 | 2.27 | 3.17 | 4.43 |
| Capital Expenditure | -0.51 | -0.92 | -3.96 | -2.97 | -4.04 | -5.65 | -7.90 | -11.04 | -15.43 | -21.56 |
| UFCF | 9.44 | 22.04 | 40.29 | 33.31 | 68.78 | 79.08 | 109.80 | 153.46 | 214.48 | 299.77 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV UFCF | 73.29 | 94.31 | 122.16 | 158.24 | 204.97 | |||||
| SUM PV UFCF | 652.97 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 7.90 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | 305.77 |
| Terminal Value | 5,182.53 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | 3,543.52 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | 4,196.49 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | 100.09 |
| Equity Value | 4,096.39 |
| Shares Outstanding | 18.24 |
| Equity Value Per Share | 224.54 |