Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Big Lots, Inc. (BIG)

$5.47

+0.67 (+13.96%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: -40.77 | 5.47 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 5,238.105,323.186,199.196,150.605,468.335,553.145,639.275,726.745,815.565,905.77
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 342.92290.82530.92383.66-105.28276.40280.69285.04289.46293.95
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 228.90155.14392.07239.95-261.71141.32143.51145.74148150.29
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 114.03135.69138.85143.71156.43135.08137.18139.31141.47143.66
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Total Cash 46.0352.72559.5653.7244.73139.79141.96144.16146.40148.67
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables ----------
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 969.56921.27940.291,237.801,147.951,022.911,038.781,054.891,071.251,087.87
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 396.90378.24398.43587.50421.68426.18432.79439.51446.32453.25
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -377.02-265.20-135.22-160.80-159.41-220.91-224.34-227.82-231.35-234.94
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 5.47
Beta 2.366
Diluted Shares Outstanding 33.35
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 24.86
After-tax Cost of Debt 3.23%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 15.464
Total Debt 2,067.73
Total Equity 182.45
Total Capital 2,250.18
Debt Weighting 91.89
Equity Weighting 8.11
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 5,238.105,323.186,199.196,150.605,468.335,553.145,639.275,726.745,815.565,905.77
EBITDA 342.92290.82530.92383.66-105.28276.40280.69285.04289.46293.95
EBIT 228.90155.14392.07239.95-261.71141.32143.51145.74148150.29
Tax Rate 24.43%23.64%25.50%23.31%24.86%24.35%24.35%24.35%24.35%24.35%
EBIAT 172.98118.45292.07184.02-196.65106.91108.57110.25111.96113.70
Depreciation 114.03135.69138.85143.71156.43135.08137.18139.31141.47143.66
Accounts Receivable ----------
Inventories -48.29-19.03-297.5089.85125.04-15.87-16.11-16.36-16.62
Accounts Payable --18.6620.19189.06-165.824.506.616.716.826.92
Capital Expenditure -377.02-265.20-135.22-160.80-159.41-220.91-224.34-227.82-231.35-234.94
UFCF -90.0218.57296.8758.49-275.60150.6212.1512.3412.5312.73
WACC
PV UFCF 144.5211.1910.9010.6210.35
SUM PV UFCF 187.58

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 4.22
Free cash flow (t + 1) 12.98
Terminal Value 584.68
Present Value of Terminal Value 475.51

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 663.09
Net Debt 2,023
Equity Value -1,359.91
Shares Outstanding 33.35
Equity Value Per Share -40.77