Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Big Lots, Inc. (BIG)

$5.47

+0.67 (+13.96%)

All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD

Stock DCF: -40.77 | 5.47 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Revenue	5,238.10	5,323.18	6,199.19	6,150.60	5,468.33	5,553.14	5,639.27	5,726.74	5,815.56	5,905.77
Revenue (%)
EBITDA	342.92	290.82	530.92	383.66	-105.28	276.40	280.69	285.04	289.46	293.95
EBITDA (%)
EBIT	228.90	155.14	392.07	239.95	-261.71	141.32	143.51	145.74	148	150.29
EBIT (%)
Depreciation	114.03	135.69	138.85	143.71	156.43	135.08	137.18	139.31	141.47	143.66
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Total Cash	46.03	52.72	559.56	53.72	44.73	139.79	141.96	144.16	146.40	148.67
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories	969.56	921.27	940.29	1,237.80	1,147.95	1,022.91	1,038.78	1,054.89	1,071.25	1,087.87
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable	396.90	378.24	398.43	587.50	421.68	426.18	432.79	439.51	446.32	453.25
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure	-377.02	-265.20	-135.22	-160.80	-159.41	-220.91	-224.34	-227.82	-231.35	-234.94
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price	$ 5.47
Beta	2.366
Diluted Shares Outstanding	33.35
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate	24.86
After-tax Cost of Debt	3.23%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity	15.464
Total Debt	2,067.73
Total Equity	182.45
Total Capital	2,250.18
Debt Weighting	91.89
Equity Weighting	8.11
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Revenue	5,238.10	5,323.18	6,199.19	6,150.60	5,468.33	5,553.14	5,639.27	5,726.74	5,815.56	5,905.77
EBITDA	342.92	290.82	530.92	383.66	-105.28	276.40	280.69	285.04	289.46	293.95
EBIT	228.90	155.14	392.07	239.95	-261.71	141.32	143.51	145.74	148	150.29
Tax Rate	24.43%	23.64%	25.50%	23.31%	24.86%	24.35%	24.35%	24.35%	24.35%	24.35%
EBIAT	172.98	118.45	292.07	184.02	-196.65	106.91	108.57	110.25	111.96	113.70
Depreciation	114.03	135.69	138.85	143.71	156.43	135.08	137.18	139.31	141.47	143.66
Accounts Receivable	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Inventories	-	48.29	-19.03	-297.50	89.85	125.04	-15.87	-16.11	-16.36	-16.62
Accounts Payable	-	-18.66	20.19	189.06	-165.82	4.50	6.61	6.71	6.82	6.92
Capital Expenditure	-377.02	-265.20	-135.22	-160.80	-159.41	-220.91	-224.34	-227.82	-231.35	-234.94
UFCF	-90.02	18.57	296.87	58.49	-275.60	150.62	12.15	12.34	12.53	12.73
WACC
PV UFCF						144.52	11.19	10.90	10.62	10.35
SUM PV UFCF										187.58

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%)	4.22
Free cash flow (t + 1)	12.98
Terminal Value	584.68
Present Value of Terminal Value	475.51

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value	663.09
Net Debt	2,023
Equity Value	-1,359.91
Shares Outstanding	33.35
Equity Value Per Share	-40.77