Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Big Lots, Inc. (BIG)
$5.47
+0.67 (+13.96%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
Revenue | 5,238.10 | 5,323.18 | 6,199.19 | 6,150.60 | 5,468.33 | 5,553.14 | 5,639.27 | 5,726.74 | 5,815.56 | 5,905.77 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
EBITDA | 342.92 | 290.82 | 530.92 | 383.66 | -105.28 | 276.40 | 280.69 | 285.04 | 289.46 | 293.95 |
EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
EBIT | 228.90 | 155.14 | 392.07 | 239.95 | -261.71 | 141.32 | 143.51 | 145.74 | 148 | 150.29 |
EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
Depreciation | 114.03 | 135.69 | 138.85 | 143.71 | 156.43 | 135.08 | 137.18 | 139.31 | 141.47 | 143.66 |
Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
Total Cash | 46.03 | 52.72 | 559.56 | 53.72 | 44.73 | 139.79 | 141.96 | 144.16 | 146.40 | 148.67 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
Account Receivables | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
Inventories | 969.56 | 921.27 | 940.29 | 1,237.80 | 1,147.95 | 1,022.91 | 1,038.78 | 1,054.89 | 1,071.25 | 1,087.87 |
Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
Accounts Payable | 396.90 | 378.24 | 398.43 | 587.50 | 421.68 | 426.18 | 432.79 | 439.51 | 446.32 | 453.25 |
Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
Capital Expenditure | -377.02 | -265.20 | -135.22 | -160.80 | -159.41 | -220.91 | -224.34 | -227.82 | -231.35 | -234.94 |
Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
Share price | $ 5.47 |
---|---|
Beta | 2.366 |
Diluted Shares Outstanding | 33.35 |
Cost of Debt | |
Tax Rate | 24.86 |
After-tax Cost of Debt | 3.23% |
Risk-Free Rate | |
Market Risk Premium | |
Cost of Equity | 15.464 |
Total Debt | 2,067.73 |
Total Equity | 182.45 |
Total Capital | 2,250.18 |
Debt Weighting | 91.89 |
Equity Weighting | 8.11 |
Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
Revenue | 5,238.10 | 5,323.18 | 6,199.19 | 6,150.60 | 5,468.33 | 5,553.14 | 5,639.27 | 5,726.74 | 5,815.56 | 5,905.77 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
EBITDA | 342.92 | 290.82 | 530.92 | 383.66 | -105.28 | 276.40 | 280.69 | 285.04 | 289.46 | 293.95 |
EBIT | 228.90 | 155.14 | 392.07 | 239.95 | -261.71 | 141.32 | 143.51 | 145.74 | 148 | 150.29 |
Tax Rate | 24.43% | 23.64% | 25.50% | 23.31% | 24.86% | 24.35% | 24.35% | 24.35% | 24.35% | 24.35% |
EBIAT | 172.98 | 118.45 | 292.07 | 184.02 | -196.65 | 106.91 | 108.57 | 110.25 | 111.96 | 113.70 |
Depreciation | 114.03 | 135.69 | 138.85 | 143.71 | 156.43 | 135.08 | 137.18 | 139.31 | 141.47 | 143.66 |
Accounts Receivable | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
Inventories | - | 48.29 | -19.03 | -297.50 | 89.85 | 125.04 | -15.87 | -16.11 | -16.36 | -16.62 |
Accounts Payable | - | -18.66 | 20.19 | 189.06 | -165.82 | 4.50 | 6.61 | 6.71 | 6.82 | 6.92 |
Capital Expenditure | -377.02 | -265.20 | -135.22 | -160.80 | -159.41 | -220.91 | -224.34 | -227.82 | -231.35 | -234.94 |
UFCF | -90.02 | 18.57 | 296.87 | 58.49 | -275.60 | 150.62 | 12.15 | 12.34 | 12.53 | 12.73 |
WACC | ||||||||||
PV UFCF | 144.52 | 11.19 | 10.90 | 10.62 | 10.35 | |||||
SUM PV UFCF | 187.58 |
Terminal Value
Growth in perpetuity method: | |
---|---|
Long-term growth rate | |
WACC (%) | 4.22 |
Free cash flow (t + 1) | 12.98 |
Terminal Value | 584.68 |
Present Value of Terminal Value | 475.51 |
Intrinsic Value
Enterprise Value | 663.09 |
---|---|
Net Debt | 2,023 |
Equity Value | -1,359.91 |
Shares Outstanding | 33.35 |
Equity Value Per Share | -40.77 |