Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Biocept, Inc. (BIOC)
$2.16
-0.16 (-6.90%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Revenue | 5.07 | 3.25 | 5.53 | 27.46 | 61.25 | 146.07 | 348.38 | 830.86 | 1,981.55 | 4,725.88 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| EBITDA | -21.03 | -23.46 | -22.28 | -14.38 | -0.02 | -465.13 | -1,109.31 | -2,645.63 | -6,309.66 | -15,048.13 |
| EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
| EBIT | -21.61 | -24.26 | -23.06 | -15.47 | -2.66 | -482.15 | -1,149.89 | -2,742.42 | -6,540.49 | -15,598.64 |
| EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
| Depreciation | 0.58 | 0.80 | 0.77 | 1.09 | 2.64 | 17.02 | 40.58 | 96.79 | 230.83 | 550.51 |
| Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Total Cash | 2.15 | 3.42 | 9.30 | 14.37 | 28.86 | 121.35 | 289.41 | 690.22 | 1,646.13 | 3,925.93 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
| Account Receivables | 1.19 | 1.57 | 3.53 | 14.14 | 13.79 | 61.29 | 146.18 | 348.62 | 831.44 | 1,982.94 |
| Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
| Inventories | 0.50 | 0.59 | 0.77 | 1.93 | 2.65 | 15.53 | 37.03 | 88.32 | 210.65 | 502.38 |
| Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
| Accounts Payable | 1.27 | 2.04 | 2.01 | 8.36 | 7.25 | 48.64 | 116 | 276.66 | 659.82 | 1,573.63 |
| Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -1.40 | -0.15 | -0.74 | -0.87 | -1.57 | -14.93 | -35.62 | -84.94 | -202.58 | -483.14 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 2.16 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 0.920 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 0.49 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | -4.63 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 2.58% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 8.153 |
| Total Debt | 11.24 |
| Total Equity | 1.06 |
| Total Capital | 12.31 |
| Debt Weighting | 91.36 |
| Equity Weighting | 8.64 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Revenue | 5.07 | 3.25 | 5.53 | 27.46 | 61.25 | 146.07 | 348.38 | 830.86 | 1,981.55 | 4,725.88 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | -21.03 | -23.46 | -22.28 | -14.38 | -0.02 | -465.13 | -1,109.31 | -2,645.63 | -6,309.66 | -15,048.13 |
| EBIT | -21.61 | -24.26 | -23.06 | -15.47 | -2.66 | -482.15 | -1,149.89 | -2,742.42 | -6,540.49 | -15,598.64 |
| Tax Rate | -0.04% | -0.01% | 0.00% | 0.00% | -4.63% | -0.93% | -0.93% | -0.93% | -0.93% | -0.93% |
| EBIAT | -21.61 | -24.26 | -23.06 | -15.47 | -2.78 | -486.65 | -1,160.64 | -2,768.05 | -6,601.63 | -15,744.47 |
| Depreciation | 0.58 | 0.80 | 0.77 | 1.09 | 2.64 | 17.02 | 40.58 | 96.79 | 230.83 | 550.51 |
| Accounts Receivable | - | -0.38 | -1.95 | -10.62 | 0.36 | -47.51 | -84.89 | -202.45 | -482.82 | -1,151.49 |
| Inventories | - | -0.09 | -0.18 | -1.16 | -0.72 | -12.88 | -21.51 | -51.29 | -122.32 | -291.73 |
| Accounts Payable | - | 0.77 | -0.03 | 6.35 | -1.12 | 41.39 | 67.36 | 160.66 | 383.16 | 913.81 |
| Capital Expenditure | -1.40 | -0.15 | -0.74 | -0.87 | -1.57 | -14.93 | -35.62 | -84.94 | -202.58 | -483.14 |
| UFCF | -22.44 | -23.30 | -25.18 | -20.68 | -3.20 | -503.56 | -1,194.70 | -2,849.29 | -6,795.37 | -16,206.52 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV UFCF | -488.61 | -1,124.81 | -2,602.95 | -6,023.55 | -13,939.24 | |||||
| SUM PV UFCF | -24,179.15 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 3.06 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | -16,530.65 |
| Terminal Value | -1,559,495 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | -1,341,322.77 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | -1,365,501.92 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | -17.62 |
| Equity Value | -1,365,484.30 |
| Shares Outstanding | 0.49 |
| Equity Value Per Share | -2,772,405.90 |