Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Brookdale Senior Living Inc. (BKD)
$2.43
-0.12 (-4.71%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 4,531.43 | 4,057.09 | 3,424.45 | 2,745.89 | 2,744.91 | 2,429.85 | 2,150.95 | 1,904.06 | 1,685.52 | 1,492.05 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| EBITDA | 157.77 | 361.63 | 661.80 | 432.75 | 319.83 | 287.37 | 254.38 | 225.19 | 199.34 | 176.46 |
| EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
| EBIT | -297.45 | -21.86 | 296.15 | 87.69 | -34.06 | 17 | 15.05 | 13.32 | 11.79 | 10.44 |
| EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
| Depreciation | 455.21 | 383.49 | 365.65 | 345.06 | 353.89 | 270.37 | 239.34 | 211.86 | 187.55 | 166.02 |
| Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Total Cash | 413.12 | 308.79 | 553.32 | 529.42 | 447.53 | 332.75 | 294.55 | 260.75 | 230.82 | 204.32 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
| Account Receivables | 133.90 | 133.61 | 109.22 | 51.14 | 55.76 | 64.79 | 57.35 | 50.77 | 44.94 | 39.78 |
| Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
| Inventories | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
| Accounts Payable | 95.05 | 104.72 | 71.23 | 76.12 | 71 | 58.89 | 52.13 | 46.15 | 40.85 | 36.16 |
| Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -225.47 | -304.09 | -185.87 | -176.66 | -196.92 | -153.11 | -135.54 | -119.98 | -106.21 | -94.02 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 2.43 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 1.274 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 190.46 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | 0.61 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 4.18% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 9.513 |
| Total Debt | 4,892.73 |
| Total Equity | 462.83 |
| Total Capital | 5,355.56 |
| Debt Weighting | 91.36 |
| Equity Weighting | 8.64 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 4,531.43 | 4,057.09 | 3,424.45 | 2,745.89 | 2,744.91 | 2,429.85 | 2,150.95 | 1,904.06 | 1,685.52 | 1,492.05 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | 157.77 | 361.63 | 661.80 | 432.75 | 319.83 | 287.37 | 254.38 | 225.19 | 199.34 | 176.46 |
| EBIT | -297.45 | -21.86 | 296.15 | 87.69 | -34.06 | 17 | 15.05 | 13.32 | 11.79 | 10.44 |
| Tax Rate | 8.58% | 1.05% | 6.05% | 7.66% | 0.61% | 4.79% | 4.79% | 4.79% | 4.79% | 4.79% |
| EBIAT | -271.94 | -21.63 | 278.24 | 80.97 | -33.85 | 16.19 | 14.33 | 12.68 | 11.23 | 9.94 |
| Depreciation | 455.21 | 383.49 | 365.65 | 345.06 | 353.89 | 270.37 | 239.34 | 211.86 | 187.55 | 166.02 |
| Accounts Receivable | - | 0.29 | 24.39 | 58.08 | -4.62 | -9.03 | 7.44 | 6.58 | 5.83 | 5.16 |
| Inventories | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Accounts Payable | - | 9.67 | -33.49 | 4.89 | -5.12 | -12.11 | -6.76 | -5.98 | -5.30 | -4.69 |
| Capital Expenditure | -225.47 | -304.09 | -185.87 | -176.66 | -196.92 | -153.11 | -135.54 | -119.98 | -106.21 | -94.02 |
| UFCF | -42.20 | 67.73 | 448.93 | 312.35 | 113.37 | 112.30 | 118.80 | 105.17 | 93.10 | 82.41 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV UFCF | 107.32 | 108.50 | 91.79 | 77.65 | 65.69 | |||||
| SUM PV UFCF | 450.95 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 4.64 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | 84.06 |
| Terminal Value | 3,184.01 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | 2,537.96 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | 2,988.91 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | 4,493.88 |
| Equity Value | -1,504.97 |
| Shares Outstanding | 190.46 |
| Equity Value Per Share | -7.90 |