Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Black Hills Corporation (BKH)

$51.9

-0.51 (-0.97%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: -8,552.85 | 51.9 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Actual
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
2028
Projected
Revenue 1,734.901,696.90413.90458.502,331.304,321.298,009.9414,847.2127,520.7551,012.40
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 634.90650.40410.90457736.702,640.084,893.649,070.8416,813.6931,165.81
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 393.63407.09165.36206.09479.901,315.092,437.654,518.428,375.3415,524.51
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 241.27243.31245.54250.91256.801,324.982,455.994,552.418,438.3415,641.30
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Actual
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
2028
Projected
Total Cash 9.786.368.9221.4393101.61188.34349.11647.101,199.46
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 272.25285.41339.67525.83368.802,118.143,926.187,277.5513,489.6525,004.39
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 117.17117.40150.98207.42160.90884.051,638.683,037.455,630.2110,436.14
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 193.52183.34217.76310.02186.401,297.972,405.914,459.598,266.2815,322.37
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -818.38-767.40-677.49-604.36-555.60-3,558.38-6,595.80-12,225.96-22,662.01-42,006.25
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 51.9
Beta 0.643
Diluted Shares Outstanding 67.10
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 13.06
After-tax Cost of Debt 3.71%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 7.308
Total Debt 4,401.20
Total Equity 3,482.49
Total Capital 7,883.69
Debt Weighting 55.83
Equity Weighting 44.17
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Actual
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
2028
Projected
Revenue 1,734.901,696.90413.90458.502,331.304,321.298,009.9414,847.2127,520.7551,012.40
EBITDA 634.90650.40410.90457736.702,640.084,893.649,070.8416,813.6931,165.81
EBIT 393.63407.09165.36206.09479.901,315.092,437.654,518.428,375.3415,524.51
Tax Rate 17.98%17.38%8.43%12.70%13.06%13.91%13.91%13.91%13.91%13.91%
EBIAT 322.84336.32151.41179.91417.211,132.122,098.493,889.767,210.0513,364.53
Depreciation 241.27243.31245.54250.91256.801,324.982,455.994,552.418,438.3415,641.30
Accounts Receivable --13.16-54.26-186.16157.03-1,749.34-1,808.04-3,351.38-6,212.10-11,514.74
Inventories --0.23-33.58-56.4446.52-723.15-754.63-1,398.77-2,592.76-4,805.93
Accounts Payable --10.1834.4292.26-123.621,111.571,107.942,053.683,806.707,056.08
Capital Expenditure -818.38-767.40-677.49-604.37-555.60-3,558.38-6,595.80-12,225.96-22,662.01-42,006.25
UFCF -254.27-211.34-333.96-323.89198.34-2,462.20-3,496.04-6,480.25-12,011.78-22,265.01
WACC
PV UFCF -2,338.27-3,152.97-5,550.18-9,769.99-17,198.12
SUM PV UFCF -38,009.53

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 5.30
Free cash flow (t + 1) -22,710.31
Terminal Value -688,191.31
Present Value of Terminal Value -531,578.41

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value -569,587.93
Net Debt 4,308.20
Equity Value -573,896.13
Shares Outstanding 67.10
Equity Value Per Share -8,552.85