Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Black Hills Corporation (BKH)

$73.28

-1.54 (-2.06%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: -210.74 | 73.28 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 1,680.271,754.271,734.901,696.941,949.102,026.932,107.862,192.032,279.562,370.58
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 388.52376.39368.18629.91633.98549.08571.01593.81617.52642.18
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 388.52376.39368.18405.46376.17280.98292.20303.87316328.62
EBIT (%)
Depreciation ---224.46257.81268.11278.81289.94301.52313.56
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 15.4220.789.786.368.9214.1814.7515.3315.9516.58
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 248.33282.13272.25285.41339.67327.55340.63354.23368.38383.09
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 113.28117.30117.17117.40150.98141.26146.90152.77158.87165.21
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 160.89210.61193.52183.34217.76221.79230.65239.86249.44259.40
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -326.01-457.52-818.38-767.40-677.49-699.84-727.79-756.85-787.07-818.50
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 73.28
Beta 0.486
Diluted Shares Outstanding 62.44
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 8.39
After-tax Cost of Debt 3.11%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 5.992
Total Debt 4,547.10
Total Equity 4,575.53
Total Capital 9,122.63
Debt Weighting 49.84
Equity Weighting 50.16
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 1,680.271,754.271,734.901,696.941,949.102,026.932,107.862,192.032,279.562,370.58
EBITDA 388.52376.39368.18629.91633.98549.08571.01593.81617.52642.18
EBIT 388.52376.39368.18405.46376.17280.98292.20303.87316328.62
Tax Rate 37.16%-1.00%17.95%17.44%8.39%15.99%15.99%15.99%15.99%15.99%
EBIAT 244.13380.16302.11334.75344.60236.06245.48255.28265.48276.08
Depreciation ---224.46257.81268.11278.81289.94301.52313.56
Accounts Receivable --33.809.88-13.16-54.2612.12-13.08-13.60-14.14-14.71
Inventories --4.020.13-0.23-33.589.72-5.64-5.87-6.10-6.34
Accounts Payable -49.72-17.09-10.1834.424.038.869.219.589.96
Capital Expenditure -326.01-457.52-818.38-767.40-677.49-699.84-727.79-756.85-787.07-818.50
UFCF -81.88-65.46-523.35-231.76-128.50-169.82-213.36-221.88-230.74-239.95
WACC
PV UFCF -162.43-195.19-194.15-193.12-192.09
SUM PV UFCF -936.97

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 4.55
Free cash flow (t + 1) -244.75
Terminal Value -9,597.99
Present Value of Terminal Value -7,683.52

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value -8,620.49
Net Debt 4,538.18
Equity Value -13,158.68
Shares Outstanding 62.44
Equity Value Per Share -210.74