Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Ball Corporation (BLL)

$69.49

-2.42 (-3.37%)

All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD

Stock DCF: 48.72 | 69.49 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year A/P	2017 Actual	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Projected	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected
Revenue	10,983	11,635	11,474	11,781	13,811	14,655.52	15,551.69	16,502.65	17,511.77	18,582.59
Revenue (%)
EBITDA	1,553	1,642	1,632	1,627	2,004	2,075.12	2,202.01	2,336.66	2,479.55	2,631.17
EBITDA (%)
EBIT	824	940	954	959	1,304	1,215.76	1,290.11	1,368.99	1,452.71	1,541.54
EBIT (%)
Depreciation	729	702	678	668	700	859.36	911.91	967.67	1,026.84	1,089.63
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year A/P	2017 Actual	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Projected	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected
Total Cash	448	721	1,798	1,366	563	1,219.85	1,294.44	1,373.60	1,457.59	1,546.72
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables	1,634	1,802	1,631	1,738	2,560	2,282.41	2,421.97	2,570.08	2,727.23	2,894
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories	1,526	1,271	1,274	1,353	1,795	1,770.47	1,878.74	1,993.62	2,115.53	2,244.89
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable	2,762	3,095	3,136	3,430	4,759	4,181.30	4,436.98	4,708.30	4,996.21	5,301.72
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure	-556	-816	-598	-1,113	-1,726	-1,149.94	-1,220.25	-1,294.87	-1,374.05	-1,458.07
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price	$ 69.49
Beta	0.548
Diluted Shares Outstanding	332.81
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate	12.90
After-tax Cost of Debt	2.88%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity	6.330
Total Debt	8,157
Total Equity	23,127.31
Total Capital	31,284.31
Debt Weighting	26.07
Equity Weighting	73.93
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year A/P	2017 Actual	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Projected	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected
Revenue	10,983	11,635	11,474	11,781	13,811	14,655.52	15,551.69	16,502.65	17,511.77	18,582.59
EBITDA	1,553	1,642	1,632	1,627	2,004	2,075.12	2,202.01	2,336.66	2,479.55	2,631.17
EBIT	824	940	954	959	1,304	1,215.76	1,290.11	1,368.99	1,452.71	1,541.54
Tax Rate	27.24%	28.28%	6.91%	14.85%	12.90%	18.03%	18.03%	18.03%	18.03%	18.03%
EBIAT	599.56	674.19	888.10	816.62	1,135.83	996.52	1,057.46	1,122.12	1,190.73	1,263.54
Depreciation	729	702	678	668	700	859.36	911.91	967.67	1,026.84	1,089.63
Accounts Receivable	-	-168	171	-107	-822	277.59	-139.57	-148.10	-157.16	-166.77
Inventories	-	255	-3	-79	-442	24.53	-108.26	-114.88	-121.91	-129.36
Accounts Payable	-	333	41	294	1,329	-577.70	255.68	271.32	287.91	305.51
Capital Expenditure	-556	-816	-598	-1,113	-1,726	-1,149.94	-1,220.25	-1,294.87	-1,374.05	-1,458.07
UFCF	772.56	980.19	1,177.10	479.62	174.83	430.36	756.96	803.25	852.37	904.49
WACC
PV UFCF						408.20	681	685.42	689.87	694.36
SUM PV UFCF										3,158.85

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%)	5.43
Free cash flow (t + 1)	922.58
Terminal Value	26,897.35
Present Value of Terminal Value	20,648.50

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value	23,807.35
Net Debt	7,594
Equity Value	16,213.35
Shares Outstanding	332.81
Equity Value Per Share	48.72