Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Ball Corporation (BLL)
$69.49
-2.42 (-3.37%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
Revenue | 10,983 | 11,635 | 11,474 | 11,781 | 13,811 | 14,655.52 | 15,551.69 | 16,502.65 | 17,511.77 | 18,582.59 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
EBITDA | 1,553 | 1,642 | 1,632 | 1,627 | 2,004 | 2,075.12 | 2,202.01 | 2,336.66 | 2,479.55 | 2,631.17 |
EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
EBIT | 824 | 940 | 954 | 959 | 1,304 | 1,215.76 | 1,290.11 | 1,368.99 | 1,452.71 | 1,541.54 |
EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
Depreciation | 729 | 702 | 678 | 668 | 700 | 859.36 | 911.91 | 967.67 | 1,026.84 | 1,089.63 |
Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
Total Cash | 448 | 721 | 1,798 | 1,366 | 563 | 1,219.85 | 1,294.44 | 1,373.60 | 1,457.59 | 1,546.72 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
Account Receivables | 1,634 | 1,802 | 1,631 | 1,738 | 2,560 | 2,282.41 | 2,421.97 | 2,570.08 | 2,727.23 | 2,894 |
Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
Inventories | 1,526 | 1,271 | 1,274 | 1,353 | 1,795 | 1,770.47 | 1,878.74 | 1,993.62 | 2,115.53 | 2,244.89 |
Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
Accounts Payable | 2,762 | 3,095 | 3,136 | 3,430 | 4,759 | 4,181.30 | 4,436.98 | 4,708.30 | 4,996.21 | 5,301.72 |
Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
Capital Expenditure | -556 | -816 | -598 | -1,113 | -1,726 | -1,149.94 | -1,220.25 | -1,294.87 | -1,374.05 | -1,458.07 |
Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
Share price | $ 69.49 |
---|---|
Beta | 0.548 |
Diluted Shares Outstanding | 332.81 |
Cost of Debt | |
Tax Rate | 12.90 |
After-tax Cost of Debt | 2.88% |
Risk-Free Rate | |
Market Risk Premium | |
Cost of Equity | 6.330 |
Total Debt | 8,157 |
Total Equity | 23,127.31 |
Total Capital | 31,284.31 |
Debt Weighting | 26.07 |
Equity Weighting | 73.93 |
Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
Revenue | 10,983 | 11,635 | 11,474 | 11,781 | 13,811 | 14,655.52 | 15,551.69 | 16,502.65 | 17,511.77 | 18,582.59 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
EBITDA | 1,553 | 1,642 | 1,632 | 1,627 | 2,004 | 2,075.12 | 2,202.01 | 2,336.66 | 2,479.55 | 2,631.17 |
EBIT | 824 | 940 | 954 | 959 | 1,304 | 1,215.76 | 1,290.11 | 1,368.99 | 1,452.71 | 1,541.54 |
Tax Rate | 27.24% | 28.28% | 6.91% | 14.85% | 12.90% | 18.03% | 18.03% | 18.03% | 18.03% | 18.03% |
EBIAT | 599.56 | 674.19 | 888.10 | 816.62 | 1,135.83 | 996.52 | 1,057.46 | 1,122.12 | 1,190.73 | 1,263.54 |
Depreciation | 729 | 702 | 678 | 668 | 700 | 859.36 | 911.91 | 967.67 | 1,026.84 | 1,089.63 |
Accounts Receivable | - | -168 | 171 | -107 | -822 | 277.59 | -139.57 | -148.10 | -157.16 | -166.77 |
Inventories | - | 255 | -3 | -79 | -442 | 24.53 | -108.26 | -114.88 | -121.91 | -129.36 |
Accounts Payable | - | 333 | 41 | 294 | 1,329 | -577.70 | 255.68 | 271.32 | 287.91 | 305.51 |
Capital Expenditure | -556 | -816 | -598 | -1,113 | -1,726 | -1,149.94 | -1,220.25 | -1,294.87 | -1,374.05 | -1,458.07 |
UFCF | 772.56 | 980.19 | 1,177.10 | 479.62 | 174.83 | 430.36 | 756.96 | 803.25 | 852.37 | 904.49 |
WACC | ||||||||||
PV UFCF | 408.20 | 681 | 685.42 | 689.87 | 694.36 | |||||
SUM PV UFCF | 3,158.85 |
Terminal Value
Growth in perpetuity method: | |
---|---|
Long-term growth rate | |
WACC (%) | 5.43 |
Free cash flow (t + 1) | 922.58 |
Terminal Value | 26,897.35 |
Present Value of Terminal Value | 20,648.50 |
Intrinsic Value
Enterprise Value | 23,807.35 |
---|---|
Net Debt | 7,594 |
Equity Value | 16,213.35 |
Shares Outstanding | 332.81 |
Equity Value Per Share | 48.72 |