Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Bloomin' Brands, Inc. (BLMN)

$26.89

+0.57 (+2.17%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 9.94 | 26.89 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 4,126.414,139.393,170.564,122.384,416.514,571.804,732.564,898.965,071.225,249.53
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 383.70396.8481.77486.11505.98408.84423.22438.10453.50469.45
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 182.11200.03-98.49322.72336.36197.35204.29211.48218.91226.61
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 201.59196.81180.26163.39169.62211.49218.92226.62234.59242.84
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Total Cash 71.8267.14109.9887.5984.7399.43102.93106.55110.30114.17
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 122.26141.11103.48123.09131.95142.73147.75152.94158.32163.88
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 72.8186.8661.9379.1178.1286.9089.9693.1296.4099.78
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 174.49174.88141.46167.98183.71193.38200.18207.22214.51222.05
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -208.22-161.93-87.84-122.83-219.69-179.97-186.30-192.85-199.63-206.65
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 26.89
Beta 2.030
Diluted Shares Outstanding 98.51
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 32.91
After-tax Cost of Debt 2.85%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 13.833
Total Debt 1,981.90
Total Equity 2,648.99
Total Capital 4,630.89
Debt Weighting 42.80
Equity Weighting 57.20
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 4,126.414,139.393,170.564,122.384,416.514,571.804,732.564,898.965,071.225,249.53
EBITDA 383.70396.8481.77486.11505.98408.84423.22438.10453.50469.45
EBIT 182.11200.03-98.49322.72336.36197.35204.29211.48218.91226.61
Tax Rate -6.77%7.85%33.70%13.53%32.91%16.25%16.25%16.25%16.25%16.25%
EBIAT 194.44184.34-65.29279.04225.65165.29171.10177.12183.35189.80
Depreciation 201.59196.81180.26163.39169.62211.49218.92226.62234.59242.84
Accounts Receivable --18.8537.63-19.61-8.85-10.78-5.02-5.20-5.38-5.57
Inventories --14.0524.93-17.180.99-8.78-3.06-3.16-3.27-3.39
Accounts Payable -0.39-33.4226.5215.749.676.807.047.297.54
Capital Expenditure -208.22-161.93-87.84-122.83-219.69-179.97-186.30-192.85-199.63-206.65
UFCF 187.81186.7156.27309.33183.45186.92202.46209.58216.95224.57
WACC
PV UFCF 171.28170161.25152.96145.09
SUM PV UFCF 800.58

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 9.13
Free cash flow (t + 1) 229.06
Terminal Value 3,212.69
Present Value of Terminal Value 2,075.62

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 2,876.21
Net Debt 1,897.16
Equity Value 979.04
Shares Outstanding 98.51
Equity Value Per Share 9.94