Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Bloomin' Brands, Inc. (BLMN)

$20.7

+0.15 (+0.73%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: -2.35 | 20.7 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 4,213.354,126.414,139.393,170.564,122.384,172.544,223.314,274.694,326.704,379.35
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 349.90254.52285.705.26462.94273.47276.80280.17283.58287.03
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 157.6252.9388.89-175299.5574.4275.3376.2477.1778.11
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 192.28201.59196.81180.26163.39199.05201.47203.93206.41208.92
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 128.2671.8267.14109.9887.59100.14101.36102.60103.84105.11
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 110.67122.26141.11103.48123.09127.25128.80130.36131.95133.56
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 51.2672.8186.8661.9379.1174.7075.6176.5377.4678.41
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 185.46174.49174.88141.46167.98178.51180.68182.88185.11187.36
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -260.59-208.22-161.93-87.84-122.83-174.35-176.47-178.62-180.80-182.99
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 20.7
Beta 1.886
Diluted Shares Outstanding 87.47
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 13.53
After-tax Cost of Debt 2.52%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 12.312
Total Debt 1,972.51
Total Equity 1,810.59
Total Capital 3,783.10
Debt Weighting 52.14
Equity Weighting 47.86
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 4,213.354,126.414,139.393,170.564,122.384,172.544,223.314,274.694,326.704,379.35
EBITDA 349.90254.52285.705.26462.94273.47276.80280.17283.58287.03
EBIT 157.6252.9388.89-175299.5574.4275.3376.2477.1778.11
Tax Rate 15.44%-6.77%7.85%33.74%13.53%12.76%12.76%12.76%12.76%12.76%
EBIAT 133.2956.5181.91-115.96259.0164.9365.7266.5267.3368.15
Depreciation 192.28201.59196.81180.26163.39199.05201.47203.93206.41208.92
Accounts Receivable --11.59-18.8537.63-19.61-4.15-1.55-1.57-1.59-1.61
Inventories --21.55-14.0524.93-17.184.41-0.91-0.92-0.93-0.94
Accounts Payable --10.970.39-33.4226.5210.532.172.202.232.25
Capital Expenditure -260.59-208.22-161.93-87.84-122.83-174.35-176.47-178.62-180.80-182.99
UFCF 64.985.7784.295.60289.29100.4190.4391.5392.6593.77
WACC
PV UFCF 93.6678.6874.2870.1366.21
SUM PV UFCF 382.95

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 7.21
Free cash flow (t + 1) 95.65
Terminal Value 1,835.87
Present Value of Terminal Value 1,296.18

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 1,679.13
Net Debt 1,884.93
Equity Value -205.79
Shares Outstanding 87.47
Equity Value Per Share -2.35