Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Boralex Inc. (BLX.TO)
$28.06
-0.72 (-2.50%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Actual | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected | 2028 Projected |
Revenue | 574 | 633 | 691 | 836 | 1,022 | 1,182.13 | 1,367.36 | 1,581.60 | 1,829.42 | 2,116.06 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
EBITDA | 445 | 428 | 472 | 519 | 593 | 788.61 | 912.17 | 1,055.09 | 1,220.41 | 1,411.63 |
EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
EBIT | 146 | 191 | 175 | 139 | 300 | 300.06 | 347.08 | 401.46 | 464.36 | 537.12 |
EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
Depreciation | 299 | 237 | 297 | 380 | 293 | 488.54 | 565.09 | 653.63 | 756.05 | 874.51 |
Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Actual | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected | 2028 Projected |
Total Cash | 170 | 275 | 259 | 361 | 478 | 474.02 | 548.30 | 634.21 | 733.58 | 848.52 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
Account Receivables | 153 | 157 | 148 | 234 | 236 | 293.07 | 338.99 | 392.11 | 453.54 | 524.61 |
Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
Inventories | 15 | 2 | 3 | 13 | 22 | 16.72 | 19.34 | 22.37 | 25.87 | 29.93 |
Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
Accounts Payable | 36 | 161 | 145 | 57 | 38 | 149.48 | 172.91 | 200 | 231.34 | 267.58 |
Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
Capital Expenditure | -177 | -156 | -179 | -256 | -280 | -329.59 | -381.23 | -440.96 | -510.06 | -589.98 |
Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
Share price | $ 28.06 |
---|---|
Beta | 0.412 |
Diluted Shares Outstanding | 102.81 |
Cost of Debt | |
Tax Rate | 49.35 |
After-tax Cost of Debt | 2.21% |
Risk-Free Rate | |
Market Risk Premium | |
Cost of Equity | 6.301 |
Total Debt | 3,619 |
Total Equity | 2,884.95 |
Total Capital | 6,503.95 |
Debt Weighting | 55.64 |
Equity Weighting | 44.36 |
Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Actual | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected | 2028 Projected |
Revenue | 574 | 633 | 691 | 836 | 1,022 | 1,182.13 | 1,367.36 | 1,581.60 | 1,829.42 | 2,116.06 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
EBITDA | 445 | 428 | 472 | 519 | 593 | 788.61 | 912.17 | 1,055.09 | 1,220.41 | 1,411.63 |
EBIT | 146 | 191 | 175 | 139 | 300 | 300.06 | 347.08 | 401.46 | 464.36 | 537.12 |
Tax Rate | 10.42% | 16.67% | 40.91% | 55.56% | 49.35% | 34.58% | 34.58% | 34.58% | 34.58% | 34.58% |
EBIAT | 130.79 | 159.17 | 103.41 | 61.78 | 151.95 | 196.30 | 227.06 | 262.64 | 303.79 | 351.39 |
Depreciation | 299 | 237 | 297 | 380 | 293 | 488.54 | 565.09 | 653.63 | 756.05 | 874.51 |
Accounts Receivable | - | -4 | 9 | -86 | -2 | -57.07 | -45.92 | -53.11 | -61.44 | -71.06 |
Inventories | - | 13 | -1 | -10 | -9 | 5.28 | -2.62 | -3.03 | -3.50 | -4.05 |
Accounts Payable | - | 125 | -16 | -88 | -19 | 111.48 | 23.42 | 27.09 | 31.34 | 36.25 |
Capital Expenditure | -177 | -156 | -179 | -256 | -280 | -329.59 | -381.23 | -440.96 | -510.06 | -589.98 |
UFCF | 252.79 | 374.17 | 213.41 | 1.78 | 134.95 | 414.95 | 385.80 | 446.25 | 516.17 | 597.05 |
WACC | ||||||||||
PV UFCF | 398.92 | 356.56 | 396.49 | 440.89 | 490.26 | |||||
SUM PV UFCF | 2,083.11 |
Terminal Value
Growth in perpetuity method: | |
---|---|
Long-term growth rate | |
WACC (%) | 4.02 |
Free cash flow (t + 1) | 619.74 |
Terminal Value | 281,699.28 |
Present Value of Terminal Value | 231,313.77 |
Intrinsic Value
Enterprise Value | 233,396.88 |
---|---|
Net Debt | 3,141 |
Equity Value | 230,255.88 |
Shares Outstanding | 102.81 |
Equity Value Per Share | 2,239.55 |