Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Boralex Inc. (BLX.TO)
$38.42
-0.62 (-1.59%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Revenue | 419 | 479 | 574 | 633 | 691 | 783.58 | 888.57 | 1,007.63 | 1,142.64 | 1,295.73 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| EBITDA | 284 | 297 | 381 | 404 | 455 | 510.63 | 579.05 | 656.63 | 744.61 | 844.38 |
| EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
| EBIT | 112 | 66 | 82 | 167 | 158 | 163.05 | 184.90 | 209.67 | 237.77 | 269.62 |
| EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
| Depreciation | 172 | 231 | 299 | 237 | 297 | 347.58 | 394.15 | 446.96 | 506.85 | 574.76 |
| Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Total Cash | 115 | 157 | 170 | 275 | 259 | 267.62 | 303.48 | 344.14 | 390.25 | 442.53 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
| Account Receivables | 134 | 142 | 153 | 157 | 148 | 210.79 | 239.03 | 271.06 | 307.37 | 348.56 |
| Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
| Inventories | 11 | 12.58 | 15.07 | 16.62 | 18.14 | 20.57 | 23.33 | 26.45 | 30 | 34.02 |
| Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
| Accounts Payable | 41 | 48 | 36 | 161 | 145 | 113.61 | 128.84 | 146.10 | 165.67 | 187.87 |
| Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -271 | -282 | -177 | -156 | -179 | -321.17 | -364.20 | -413 | -468.33 | -531.08 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 38.42 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 0.404 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 102.77 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | 61.36 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 1.22% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 5.439 |
| Total Debt | 3,909 |
| Total Equity | 3,948.60 |
| Total Capital | 7,857.60 |
| Debt Weighting | 49.75 |
| Equity Weighting | 50.25 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Revenue | 419 | 479 | 574 | 633 | 691 | 783.58 | 888.57 | 1,007.63 | 1,142.64 | 1,295.73 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | 284 | 297 | 381 | 404 | 455 | 510.63 | 579.05 | 656.63 | 744.61 | 844.38 |
| EBIT | 112 | 66 | 82 | 167 | 158 | 163.05 | 184.90 | 209.67 | 237.77 | 269.62 |
| Tax Rate | 34.20% | 40.00% | 18.75% | 16.67% | 61.36% | 34.20% | 34.20% | 34.20% | 34.20% | 34.20% |
| EBIAT | 73.70 | 39.60 | 66.62 | 139.17 | 61.05 | 107.30 | 121.67 | 137.97 | 156.46 | 177.42 |
| Depreciation | 172 | 231 | 299 | 237 | 297 | 347.58 | 394.15 | 446.96 | 506.85 | 574.76 |
| Accounts Receivable | - | -8 | -11 | -4 | 9 | -62.79 | -28.24 | -32.03 | -36.32 | -41.18 |
| Inventories | - | -1.58 | -2.49 | -1.55 | -1.52 | -2.43 | -2.76 | -3.13 | -3.54 | -4.02 |
| Accounts Payable | - | 7 | -12 | 125 | -16 | -31.39 | 15.22 | 17.26 | 19.58 | 22.20 |
| Capital Expenditure | -271 | -282 | -177 | -156 | -179 | -321.17 | -364.20 | -413 | -468.33 | -531.08 |
| UFCF | -25.30 | -13.98 | 163.13 | 339.62 | 170.52 | 37.10 | 135.85 | 154.05 | 174.69 | 198.09 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV UFCF | 35.90 | 127.21 | 139.59 | 153.17 | 168.08 | |||||
| SUM PV UFCF | 623.96 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 3.34 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | 202.05 |
| Terminal Value | 15,078.68 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | 12,794.43 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | 13,418.39 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | 3,653 |
| Equity Value | 9,765.39 |
| Shares Outstanding | 102.77 |
| Equity Value Per Share | 95.02 |