Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Bionano Genomics, Inc. (BNGO)
$1.11
+0.05 (+4.72%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 12 | 10.13 | 8.50 | 17.98 | 27.80 | 37.15 | 49.63 | 66.31 | 88.60 | 118.37 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| EBITDA | -15.78 | -26.38 | -37.08 | -64.29 | -120.57 | -120.30 | -160.73 | -214.74 | -286.92 | -383.35 |
| EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
| EBIT | -17.10 | -27.51 | -38.56 | -67.65 | -130.41 | -127.25 | -170.01 | -227.15 | -303.50 | -405.50 |
| EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
| Depreciation | 1.32 | 1.13 | 1.48 | 3.35 | 9.84 | 6.95 | 9.29 | 12.41 | 16.58 | 22.15 |
| Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Total Cash | 16.52 | 17.31 | 38.45 | 250.61 | 113.19 | 190.31 | 254.27 | 339.73 | 453.91 | 606.46 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
| Account Receivables | 4.51 | 6.33 | 2.78 | 4.93 | 7.02 | 13.78 | 18.41 | 24.60 | 32.87 | 43.91 |
| Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
| Inventories | 1.07 | 3.44 | 3.32 | 12.39 | 29.76 | 19.15 | 25.59 | 34.19 | 45.69 | 61.04 |
| Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
| Accounts Payable | 1.35 | 2.70 | 2.93 | 9.70 | 12.53 | 12.73 | 17.01 | 22.73 | 30.37 | 40.57 |
| Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -0.33 | -0.06 | 4.66 | -0.82 | -2.41 | 2.84 | 3.79 | 5.06 | 6.76 | 9.03 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 1.11 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 2.317 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 289.21 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | -1.44 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 2.55% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 14.428 |
| Total Debt | 11.67 |
| Total Equity | 321.02 |
| Total Capital | 332.69 |
| Debt Weighting | 3.51 |
| Equity Weighting | 96.49 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 12 | 10.13 | 8.50 | 17.98 | 27.80 | 37.15 | 49.63 | 66.31 | 88.60 | 118.37 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | -15.78 | -26.38 | -37.08 | -64.29 | -120.57 | -120.30 | -160.73 | -214.74 | -286.92 | -383.35 |
| EBIT | -17.10 | -27.51 | -38.56 | -67.65 | -130.41 | -127.25 | -170.01 | -227.15 | -303.50 | -405.50 |
| Tax Rate | -0.08% | -0.07% | -0.07% | 7.32% | -1.44% | 1.13% | 1.13% | 1.13% | 1.13% | 1.13% |
| EBIAT | -17.11 | -27.53 | -38.59 | -62.70 | -132.29 | -125.81 | -168.09 | -224.59 | -300.07 | -400.92 |
| Depreciation | 1.32 | 1.13 | 1.48 | 3.35 | 9.84 | 6.95 | 9.29 | 12.41 | 16.58 | 22.15 |
| Accounts Receivable | - | -1.82 | 3.56 | -2.16 | -2.09 | -6.76 | -4.63 | -6.19 | -8.27 | -11.05 |
| Inventories | - | -2.38 | 0.13 | -9.07 | -17.37 | 10.61 | -6.44 | -8.60 | -11.49 | -15.35 |
| Accounts Payable | - | 1.35 | 0.23 | 6.77 | 2.84 | 0.20 | 4.28 | 5.72 | 7.64 | 10.21 |
| Capital Expenditure | -0.33 | -0.06 | 4.66 | -0.82 | -2.41 | 2.84 | 3.79 | 5.06 | 6.76 | 9.03 |
| UFCF | -16.13 | -29.31 | -28.53 | -64.63 | -141.49 | -111.98 | -161.81 | -216.19 | -288.85 | -385.93 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV UFCF | -98.22 | -124.48 | -145.88 | -170.96 | -200.35 | |||||
| SUM PV UFCF | -739.90 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 14.01 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | -393.65 |
| Terminal Value | -3,277.65 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | -1,701.56 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | -2,441.46 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | 6.58 |
| Equity Value | -2,448.04 |
| Shares Outstanding | 289.21 |
| Equity Value Per Share | -8.46 |