Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Burning Rock Biotech Limited (BNR)
$2.95
+0.01 (+0.34%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Revenue | 33.42 | 61.07 | 68.78 | 81.26 | 112 | 154.38 | 212.79 | 293.30 | 404.27 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | |||||||||
| EBITDA | -21.58 | -22.05 | -59.72 | -119.44 | -93.66 | -129.09 | -177.94 | -245.26 | -338.06 |
| EBITDA (%) | |||||||||
| EBIT | -25.53 | -27.06 | -65.05 | -127.08 | -104.07 | -143.45 | -197.72 | -272.53 | -375.64 |
| EBIT (%) | |||||||||
| Depreciation | 3.95 | 5.02 | 5.33 | 7.64 | 10.41 | 14.35 | 19.78 | 27.27 | 37.58 |
| Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Total Cash | 20.82 | 65.32 | 361.19 | 239.21 | 276.85 | 381.60 | 525.99 | 724.99 | 999.30 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Cash (%) | |||||||||
| Account Receivables | 13.19 | 33.37 | 23.54 | 25.83 | 44.84 | 61.80 | 85.18 | 117.41 | 161.84 |
| Account Receivables (%) | |||||||||
| Inventories | 7.85 | 9.30 | 10.88 | 19.71 | 22.06 | 30.41 | 41.92 | 57.78 | 79.64 |
| Inventories (%) | |||||||||
| Accounts Payable | 2.60 | 1.98 | 5.68 | 10.09 | 8.88 | 12.23 | 16.86 | 23.24 | 32.04 |
| Accounts Payable (%) | |||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -3.95 | -7.32 | -12.73 | -34.15 | -23.62 | -32.55 | -44.87 | -61.85 | -85.25 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 2.95 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 0.197 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 104.21 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | -0.11 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 1.77% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 4.430 |
| Total Debt | 13.87 |
| Total Equity | 307.41 |
| Total Capital | 321.28 |
| Debt Weighting | 4.32 |
| Equity Weighting | 95.68 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Revenue | 33.42 | 61.07 | 68.78 | 81.26 | 112 | 154.38 | 212.79 | 293.30 | 404.27 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | -21.58 | -22.05 | -59.72 | -119.44 | -93.66 | -129.09 | -177.94 | -245.26 | -338.06 |
| EBIT | -25.53 | -27.06 | -65.05 | -127.08 | -104.07 | -143.45 | -197.72 | -272.53 | -375.64 |
| Tax Rate | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | -0.11% | -0.03% | -0.03% | -0.03% | -0.03% | -0.03% |
| EBIAT | -25.53 | -27.06 | -65.05 | -127.23 | -104.10 | -143.49 | -197.77 | -272.60 | -375.74 |
| Depreciation | 3.95 | 5.02 | 5.33 | 7.64 | 10.41 | 14.35 | 19.78 | 27.27 | 37.58 |
| Accounts Receivable | - | -20.17 | 9.83 | -2.29 | -19.01 | -16.96 | -23.38 | -32.23 | -44.42 |
| Inventories | - | -1.45 | -1.58 | -8.83 | -2.35 | -8.35 | -11.51 | -15.86 | -21.86 |
| Accounts Payable | - | -0.63 | 3.70 | 4.42 | -1.22 | 3.36 | 4.63 | 6.38 | 8.79 |
| Capital Expenditure | -3.95 | -7.32 | -12.73 | -34.15 | -23.62 | -32.55 | -44.87 | -61.85 | -85.25 |
| UFCF | -25.53 | -51.62 | -60.51 | -160.44 | -139.88 | -183.64 | -253.12 | -348.89 | -480.90 |
| WACC | |||||||||
| PV UFCF | -139.88 | -176.04 | -232.59 | -307.32 | -406.05 | ||||
| SUM PV UFCF | -1,209.62 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 4.32 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | -490.52 |
| Terminal Value | -21,142.89 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | -17,113.01 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | -18,322.64 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | -215.14 |
| Equity Value | -18,107.50 |
| Shares Outstanding | 104.21 |
| Equity Value Per Share | -173.76 |