Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

bpost NV/SA (BPOST.BR)

4.082 €

+0.05 (+1.19%)

All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD

Stock DCF: 75.67 | 4.082 | undervalue

Operating Data

Year A/P	2017 Actual	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Projected	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected
Revenue	2,972.20	3,774.30	3,779.30	4,115.10	4,282.40	4,711.39	5,183.35	5,702.59	6,273.85	6,902.33
Revenue (%)
EBITDA	604.70	573.30	548.30	376.70	623.20	694.92	764.54	841.13	925.39	1,018.09
EBITDA (%)
EBIT	499.60	395.60	300.60	58.20	355.60	423.67	466.11	512.80	564.18	620.69
EBIT (%)
Depreciation	105.10	177.70	247.70	318.50	267.60	271.25	298.43	328.32	361.21	397.40
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year A/P	2017 Actual	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Projected	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected
Total Cash	466	680.10	670.20	948.10	907.50	901.40	991.70	1,091.05	1,200.34	1,320.59
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables	624	646	657	573	618	790.10	869.25	956.32	1,052.12	1,157.52
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories	39.10	36.90	34.70	32.70	20.70	42.30	46.54	51.20	56.33	61.97
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable	466.60	499.90	537.50	799.10	382.90	673.97	741.49	815.77	897.48	987.39
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure	-121.40	-115.40	-162.20	-147.70	-172.10	-179.43	-197.40	-217.18	-238.93	-262.87
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price	$ 4.082
Beta	1.187
Diluted Shares Outstanding	200
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate	24.81
After-tax Cost of Debt	1.16%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity	9.301
Total Debt	1,377.60
Total Equity	816.40
Total Capital	2,194
Debt Weighting	62.79
Equity Weighting	37.21
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year A/P	2017 Actual	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Projected	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected
Revenue	2,972.20	3,774.30	3,779.30	4,115.10	4,282.40	4,711.39	5,183.35	5,702.59	6,273.85	6,902.33
EBITDA	604.70	573.30	548.30	376.70	623.20	694.92	764.54	841.13	925.39	1,018.09
EBIT	499.60	395.60	300.60	58.20	355.60	423.67	466.11	512.80	564.18	620.69
Tax Rate	33.52%	30.50%	36.88%	165.54%	24.81%	58.25%	58.25%	58.25%	58.25%	58.25%
EBIAT	332.15	274.95	189.74	-38.14	267.37	176.88	194.60	214.10	235.54	259.14
Depreciation	105.10	177.70	247.70	318.50	267.60	271.25	298.43	328.32	361.21	397.40
Accounts Receivable	-	-22	-11	84	-45	-172.10	-79.15	-87.08	-95.80	-105.40
Inventories	-	2.20	2.20	2	12	-21.60	-4.24	-4.66	-5.13	-5.64
Accounts Payable	-	33.30	37.60	261.60	-416.20	291.07	67.52	74.28	81.72	89.91
Capital Expenditure	-121.40	-115.40	-162.20	-147.70	-172.10	-179.43	-197.40	-217.18	-238.93	-262.87
UFCF	315.85	350.75	304.04	480.26	-86.33	366.08	279.76	307.78	338.61	372.53
WACC
PV UFCF						351.36	257.71	272.12	287.34	303.41
SUM PV UFCF										1,471.94

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%)	4.19
Free cash flow (t + 1)	379.98
Terminal Value	17,350.86
Present Value of Terminal Value	14,131.58

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value	15,603.52
Net Debt	470.10
Equity Value	15,133.42
Shares Outstanding	200
Equity Value Per Share	75.67