Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

BRF S.A. (BRFS)

$2.73

+0.09 (+3.41%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 458.90 | 2.73 | undervalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 33,469.4030,188.4033,446.9839,469.7048,343.3153,356.5158,889.5864,996.4271,736.5579,175.63
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 2,828.80-1,2295,106.385,976.545,474.284,920.945,431.245,994.466,616.087,302.17
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 910.80-2,976.202,805.113,582.162,727.921,703.971,880.682,075.702,290.952,528.52
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 1,9181,747.202,301.282,394.382,746.353,216.963,550.563,918.764,325.134,773.65
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 6,239.205,376.604,655.977,890.787,875.689,247.2410,206.1811,264.5612,432.7013,721.97
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 5,266.503,794.203,716.915,079.385,155.056,717.487,414.088,182.929,031.499,968.05
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 6,458.705,390.405,490.958,931.7712,554.7910,902.8212,033.4513,281.3214,658.5916,178.68
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 6,445.505,552.405,784.428,996.2111,70210,878.6912,006.8113,251.9114,626.1416,142.87
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -938.20-598.50-481.48-900.79-1,735.06-1,290.86-1,424.72-1,572.46-1,735.53-1,915.50
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 2.73
Beta 1.340
Diluted Shares Outstanding 849.54
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 1,305.75
After-tax Cost of Debt -123.47%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 9.450
Total Debt 27,935.28
Total Equity 2,319.24
Total Capital 30,254.51
Debt Weighting 92.33
Equity Weighting 7.67
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 33,469.4030,188.4033,446.9839,469.7048,343.3153,356.5158,889.5864,996.4271,736.5579,175.63
EBITDA 2,828.80-1,2295,106.385,976.545,474.284,920.945,431.245,994.466,616.087,302.17
EBIT 910.80-2,976.202,805.113,582.162,727.921,703.971,880.682,075.702,290.952,528.52
Tax Rate 16.34%-81.72%78.93%-12.30%1,305.75%261.40%261.40%261.40%261.40%261.40%
EBIAT 761.94-5,408.30591.104,022.59-32,891.84-2,750.23-3,035.42-3,350.20-3,697.61-4,081.06
Depreciation 1,9181,747.202,301.282,394.382,746.353,216.963,550.563,918.764,325.134,773.65
Accounts Receivable -1,472.3077.29-1,362.47-75.67-1,562.43-696.60-768.84-848.57-936.57
Inventories -1,068.30-100.55-3,440.81-3,623.021,651.97-1,130.62-1,247.87-1,377.27-1,520.10
Accounts Payable --893.10232.023,211.792,705.79-823.311,128.121,245.111,374.221,516.73
Capital Expenditure -938.20-598.50-481.49-900.79-1,735.06-1,290.86-1,424.72-1,572.46-1,735.53-1,915.50
UFCF 1,741.74-2,612.102,619.653,924.68-32,873.44-1,557.89-1,608.68-1,775.50-1,959.62-2,162.84
WACC
PV UFCF 11,731.07-91,216.76758,101.98-6,300,58152,364,090.71
SUM PV UFCF 46,742,126

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) -113.28
Free cash flow (t + 1) -2,206.09
Terminal Value 1,913.68
Present Value of Terminal Value -46,331,863.74

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 410,262.26
Net Debt 20,406.46
Equity Value 389,855.80
Shares Outstanding 849.54
Equity Value Per Share 458.90