Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Bluerock Residential Growth REIT, I... (BRG)

$26.6

-0.32 (-1.19%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 303.87 | 26.6 | undervalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 123.18184.72209.97219.85220.65258.54302.94354.97415.93487.36
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 67.02118.85170.35169.63227.72196.62230.38269.95316.31370.63
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 15.8751.8596.3086.63144.4199.11116.13136.08159.44186.83
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 51.156774.0582.9983.3197.51114.25133.87156.86183.80
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 35.0224.7831.6883.87166.4988.18103.32121.07141.86166.22
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 152.60181.33213.07187.58217.31262.33307.38360.17422.02494.50
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories ----------
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 1.651.491.491.323.822.683.143.684.315.06
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -46.97-21.24-21.45-17.12-27.90-41.51-48.64-56.99-66.78-78.25
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 26.6
Beta 0.812
Diluted Shares Outstanding 26.25
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 12.78
After-tax Cost of Debt 3.37%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 7.325
Total Debt 1,364.99
Total Equity 698.25
Total Capital 2,063.24
Debt Weighting 66.16
Equity Weighting 33.84
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 123.18184.72209.97219.85220.65258.54302.94354.97415.93487.36
EBITDA 67.02118.85170.35169.63227.72196.62230.38269.95316.31370.63
EBIT 15.8751.8596.3086.63144.4199.11116.13136.08159.44186.83
Tax Rate -122.61%92.46%-26.18%-108.11%12.78%-30.33%-30.33%-30.33%-30.33%-30.33%
EBIAT 35.343.91121.51180.29125.95129.17151.36177.35207.81243.49
Depreciation 51.156774.0582.9983.3197.51114.25133.87156.86183.80
Accounts Receivable --28.74-31.7325.49-29.73-45.02-45.05-52.79-61.85-72.47
Inventories ----------
Accounts Payable --0.170-0.172.51-1.140.460.540.630.74
Capital Expenditure -46.97-21.24-21.45-17.12-27.90-41.51-48.64-56.99-66.78-78.25
UFCF 39.5120.77142.39271.49154.13139172.38201.98236.67277.31
WACC
PV UFCF 132.75157.22175.93196.87220.31
SUM PV UFCF 883.09

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 4.71
Free cash flow (t + 1) 282.86
Terminal Value 10,437.63
Present Value of Terminal Value 8,292.04

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 9,175.13
Net Debt 1,198.50
Equity Value 7,976.63
Shares Outstanding 26.25
Equity Value Per Share 303.87