Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Black Stone Minerals, L.P. (BSM)
$17.5
+0.11 (+0.63%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 609.57 | 487.82 | 342.75 | 359.26 | 663.60 | 729.67 | 802.30 | 882.17 | 969.99 | 1,066.55 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| EBITDA | 316.31 | 235.80 | 159.21 | 184.77 | 482.75 | 395.27 | 434.62 | 477.89 | 525.46 | 577.77 |
| EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
| EBIT | 193.66 | 126.22 | 77.19 | 123.76 | 434.94 | 262.91 | 289.08 | 317.86 | 349.50 | 384.29 |
| EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
| Depreciation | 122.65 | 109.58 | 82.02 | 61.02 | 47.80 | 132.37 | 145.54 | 160.03 | 175.96 | 193.48 |
| Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Total Cash | 5.41 | 8.12 | 1.80 | 8.88 | 4.31 | 9.04 | 9.94 | 10.93 | 12.02 | 13.22 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
| Account Receivables | 113.15 | 78.21 | 61.91 | 97.14 | 135.70 | 146.15 | 160.69 | 176.69 | 194.28 | 213.62 |
| Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
| Inventories | - | - | - | - | 31.47 | 34.61 | 38.05 | 41.84 | 46 | 50.58 |
| Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
| Accounts Payable | 4.15 | 5.31 | 3.41 | 5.94 | 6.77 | 7.94 | 8.73 | 9.59 | 10.55 | 11.60 |
| Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -297.33 | -111.30 | -4.82 | -14.63 | -12.56 | -115.24 | -126.71 | -139.32 | -153.19 | -168.44 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 17.5 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 1.058 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 224.45 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | 0.00 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 62.86% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 9.536 |
| Total Debt | 10 |
| Total Equity | 3,927.80 |
| Total Capital | 3,937.80 |
| Debt Weighting | 0.25 |
| Equity Weighting | 99.75 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 609.57 | 487.82 | 342.75 | 359.26 | 663.60 | 729.67 | 802.30 | 882.17 | 969.99 | 1,066.55 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | 316.31 | 235.80 | 159.21 | 184.77 | 482.75 | 395.27 | 434.62 | 477.89 | 525.46 | 577.77 |
| EBIT | 193.66 | 126.22 | 77.19 | 123.76 | 434.94 | 262.91 | 289.08 | 317.86 | 349.50 | 384.29 |
| Tax Rate | 0.01% | -40.90% | -58.72% | 0.00% | 0.00% | -19.92% | -19.92% | -19.92% | -19.92% | -19.92% |
| EBIAT | 193.64 | 177.84 | 122.52 | 123.76 | 434.94 | 315.28 | 346.67 | 381.18 | 419.13 | 460.85 |
| Depreciation | 122.65 | 109.58 | 82.02 | 61.02 | 47.80 | 132.37 | 145.54 | 160.03 | 175.96 | 193.48 |
| Accounts Receivable | - | 34.93 | 16.31 | -35.23 | -38.55 | -10.45 | -14.55 | -16 | -17.59 | -19.34 |
| Inventories | - | - | - | - | - | -3.13 | -3.44 | -3.79 | -4.16 | -4.58 |
| Accounts Payable | - | 1.16 | -1.90 | 2.54 | 0.83 | 1.16 | 0.79 | 0.87 | 0.96 | 1.05 |
| Capital Expenditure | -297.33 | -111.30 | -4.82 | -14.63 | -12.56 | -115.24 | -126.71 | -139.32 | -153.19 | -168.44 |
| UFCF | 18.96 | 212.22 | 214.13 | 137.44 | 432.46 | 319.99 | 348.30 | 382.97 | 421.10 | 463.02 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV UFCF | 291.78 | 289.59 | 290.34 | 291.09 | 291.85 | |||||
| SUM PV UFCF | 1,454.64 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 9.67 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | 472.28 |
| Terminal Value | 6,157.46 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | 3,881.17 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | 5,335.81 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | 5.69 |
| Equity Value | 5,330.12 |
| Shares Outstanding | 224.45 |
| Equity Value Per Share | 23.75 |