Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Banco Santander México, S.A., Insti... (BSMX)

$5.46

+0.13 (+2.44%)

All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD

Stock DCF: 224.91 | 5.46 | undervalue

Operating Data

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Revenue	80,161	68,002	67,191	68,224	96,252	102,570.68	109,304.16	116,479.67	124,126.24	132,274.78
Revenue (%)
EBITDA	79,373	90,586	81,118	71,690	104,397	116,212.11	123,841.11	131,970.94	140,634.46	149,866.72
EBITDA (%)
EBIT	76,400	85,364	75,375	65,447	99,496	109,200.82	116,369.55	124,008.89	132,149.73	140,824.99
EBIT (%)
Depreciation	2,973	5,222	5,743	6,243	4,901	7,011.29	7,471.56	7,962.04	8,484.73	9,041.73
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Total Cash	210,302	299,284	427,122	454,817	93,353	431,162.83	459,467.47	489,630.23	521,773.09	556,026.04
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables	5,528	7,040	4,338	5,209	62,840	19,822.21	21,123.48	22,510.18	23,987.91	25,562.65
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable	-	-	-	40,908	43,731	54,052.27	57,600.65	61,381.97	65,411.53	69,705.61
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure	-6,271	-12,002	-3,911	-5,288	-7,168	-9,537.28	-10,163.38	-10,830.57	-11,541.57	-12,299.24
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price	$ 5.46
Beta	0.811
Diluted Shares Outstanding	1,357.40
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate	25.73
After-tax Cost of Debt	31.68%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity	7.639
Total Debt	149,656
Total Equity	7,411.40
Total Capital	157,067.40
Debt Weighting	95.28
Equity Weighting	4.72
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Revenue	80,161	68,002	67,191	68,224	96,252	102,570.68	109,304.16	116,479.67	124,126.24	132,274.78
EBITDA	79,373	90,586	81,118	71,690	104,397	116,212.11	123,841.11	131,970.94	140,634.46	149,866.72
EBIT	76,400	85,364	75,375	65,447	99,496	109,200.82	116,369.55	124,008.89	132,149.73	140,824.99
Tax Rate	22.01%	25.32%	24.71%	19.27%	25.73%	23.41%	23.41%	23.41%	23.41%	23.41%
EBIAT	59,586.09	63,752.43	56,752.59	52,833.59	73,896.32	83,640.60	89,131.37	94,982.60	101,217.94	107,862.62
Depreciation	2,973	5,222	5,743	6,243	4,901	7,011.29	7,471.56	7,962.04	8,484.73	9,041.73
Accounts Receivable	-	-1,512	2,702	-871	-57,631	43,017.79	-1,301.27	-1,386.70	-1,477.73	-1,574.74
Inventories	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Accounts Payable	-	-	-	-	2,823	10,321.27	3,548.38	3,781.32	4,029.56	4,294.08
Capital Expenditure	-6,271	-12,002	-3,911	-5,288	-7,168	-9,537.28	-10,163.38	-10,830.57	-11,541.57	-12,299.24
UFCF	56,288.09	55,460.43	61,286.59	52,917.59	16,821.32	134,453.66	88,686.66	94,508.69	100,712.92	107,324.45
WACC
PV UFCF						102,990.16	52,036.08	42,475.76	34,671.90	28,301.81
SUM PV UFCF										260,475.72

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%)	30.55
Free cash flow (t + 1)	109,470.94
Terminal Value	383,435.86
Present Value of Terminal Value	101,113.31

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value	361,589.03
Net Debt	56,303
Equity Value	305,286.03
Shares Outstanding	1,357.40
Equity Value Per Share	224.91