Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Peabody Energy Corporation (BTU)
$21.04
-0.29 (-1.36%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Revenue | 5,578.80 | 5,581.80 | 4,623.40 | 2,881.10 | 3,318.30 | 2,989.57 | 2,693.41 | 2,426.59 | 2,186.20 | 1,969.62 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| EBITDA | 189.40 | 814.60 | -21.30 | -1,722.50 | 875 | -95 | -85.59 | -77.11 | -69.47 | -62.59 |
| EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
| EBIT | - | - | - | - | - | -95 | -85.59 | -77.11 | -69.47 | -62.59 |
| EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
| Depreciation | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Total Cash | 1,012.10 | 981.90 | 732.20 | 849.20 | 954.30 | 656.53 | 591.49 | 532.90 | 480.10 | 432.54 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
| Account Receivables | 552.10 | 450.40 | 329.50 | 244.80 | 350.50 | 263.99 | 237.84 | 214.28 | 193.05 | 173.92 |
| Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
| Inventories | 291.30 | 280.20 | 331.50 | 261.60 | 226.70 | 199.24 | 179.51 | 161.72 | 145.70 | 131.27 |
| Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
| Accounts Payable | 388 | 281.70 | 254.80 | 146.30 | 201.70 | 171.42 | 154.44 | 139.14 | 125.35 | 112.93 |
| Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -185.10 | -301.40 | -285.30 | -197.50 | -175.70 | -161.67 | -145.65 | -131.22 | -118.22 | -106.51 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 21.04 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 1.187 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 97.80 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | 2.73 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 15.10% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 8.491 |
| Total Debt | 1,181.40 |
| Total Equity | 2,057.71 |
| Total Capital | 3,239.11 |
| Debt Weighting | 36.47 |
| Equity Weighting | 63.53 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Revenue | 5,578.80 | 5,581.80 | 4,623.40 | 2,881.10 | 3,318.30 | 2,989.57 | 2,693.41 | 2,426.59 | 2,186.20 | 1,969.62 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | 189.40 | 814.60 | -21.30 | -1,722.50 | 875 | -95 | -85.59 | -77.11 | -69.47 | -62.59 |
| EBIT | - | - | - | - | - | -95 | -85.59 | -77.11 | -69.47 | -62.59 |
| Tax Rate | -397.41% | 2.59% | -48.49% | -1.00% | 2.73% | -88.32% | -88.32% | -88.32% | -88.32% | -88.32% |
| EBIAT | - | - | - | - | - | -178.91 | -161.18 | -145.22 | -130.83 | -117.87 |
| Depreciation | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Accounts Receivable | - | 101.70 | 120.90 | 84.70 | -105.70 | 86.51 | 26.15 | 23.56 | 21.23 | 19.12 |
| Inventories | - | 11.10 | -51.30 | 69.90 | 34.90 | 27.46 | 19.74 | 17.78 | 16.02 | 14.43 |
| Accounts Payable | - | -106.30 | -26.90 | -108.50 | 55.40 | -30.28 | -16.98 | -15.30 | -13.78 | -12.42 |
| Capital Expenditure | -185.10 | -301.40 | -285.30 | -197.50 | -175.70 | -161.67 | -145.65 | -131.22 | -118.22 | -106.51 |
| UFCF | - | - | - | - | - | -256.89 | -277.93 | -250.39 | -225.59 | -203.24 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV UFCF | -231.64 | -225.98 | -183.58 | -149.14 | -121.16 | |||||
| SUM PV UFCF | -911.50 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 10.90 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | -207.30 |
| Terminal Value | -2,329.27 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | -1,388.55 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | -2,300.05 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | 227.10 |
| Equity Value | -2,527.15 |
| Shares Outstanding | 97.80 |
| Equity Value Per Share | -25.84 |