Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Peabody Energy Corporation (BTU)

$21.04

-0.29 (-1.36%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: -25.84 | 21.04 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 5,578.805,581.804,623.402,881.103,318.302,989.572,693.412,426.592,186.201,969.62
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 189.40814.60-21.30-1,722.50875-95-85.59-77.11-69.47-62.59
EBITDA (%)
EBIT ------95-85.59-77.11-69.47-62.59
EBIT (%)
Depreciation ----------
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 1,012.10981.90732.20849.20954.30656.53591.49532.90480.10432.54
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 552.10450.40329.50244.80350.50263.99237.84214.28193.05173.92
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 291.30280.20331.50261.60226.70199.24179.51161.72145.70131.27
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 388281.70254.80146.30201.70171.42154.44139.14125.35112.93
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -185.10-301.40-285.30-197.50-175.70-161.67-145.65-131.22-118.22-106.51
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 21.04
Beta 1.187
Diluted Shares Outstanding 97.80
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 2.73
After-tax Cost of Debt 15.10%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 8.491
Total Debt 1,181.40
Total Equity 2,057.71
Total Capital 3,239.11
Debt Weighting 36.47
Equity Weighting 63.53
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 5,578.805,581.804,623.402,881.103,318.302,989.572,693.412,426.592,186.201,969.62
EBITDA 189.40814.60-21.30-1,722.50875-95-85.59-77.11-69.47-62.59
EBIT ------95-85.59-77.11-69.47-62.59
Tax Rate -397.41%2.59%-48.49%-1.00%2.73%-88.32%-88.32%-88.32%-88.32%-88.32%
EBIAT ------178.91-161.18-145.22-130.83-117.87
Depreciation ----------
Accounts Receivable -101.70120.9084.70-105.7086.5126.1523.5621.2319.12
Inventories -11.10-51.3069.9034.9027.4619.7417.7816.0214.43
Accounts Payable --106.30-26.90-108.5055.40-30.28-16.98-15.30-13.78-12.42
Capital Expenditure -185.10-301.40-285.30-197.50-175.70-161.67-145.65-131.22-118.22-106.51
UFCF ------256.89-277.93-250.39-225.59-203.24
WACC
PV UFCF -231.64-225.98-183.58-149.14-121.16
SUM PV UFCF -911.50

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 10.90
Free cash flow (t + 1) -207.30
Terminal Value -2,329.27
Present Value of Terminal Value -1,388.55

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value -2,300.05
Net Debt 227.10
Equity Value -2,527.15
Shares Outstanding 97.80
Equity Value Per Share -25.84