Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
First Busey Corporation (BUSE)
$21.48
+0.59 (+2.82%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 331.40 | 403.64 | 401.20 | 403.50 | 450.24 | 487.78 | 528.45 | 572.51 | 620.25 | 671.96 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| EBITDA | 193.96 | 143.99 | 138.21 | 168.10 | 223.94 | 214.67 | 232.57 | 251.96 | 272.97 | 295.73 |
| EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
| EBIT | 178.55 | 119.85 | 110.27 | 139.92 | 198.29 | 185.13 | 200.57 | 217.29 | 235.41 | 255.04 |
| EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
| Depreciation | 15.41 | 24.14 | 27.95 | 28.18 | 25.65 | 29.54 | 32 | 34.67 | 37.56 | 40.69 |
| Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Total Cash | 937.66 | 2,177.55 | 2,949.72 | 4,817.35 | 2,688.56 | 3,266.83 | 3,539.22 | 3,834.31 | 4,154.01 | 4,500.36 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
| Account Receivables | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
| Inventories | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
| Accounts Payable | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -11.62 | -13.24 | -4.20 | -5.04 | -4.99 | -9.94 | -10.77 | -11.67 | -12.64 | -13.69 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 21.48 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 0.834 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 56.14 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | 20.67 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 4.21% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 8.241 |
| Total Debt | 687.90 |
| Total Equity | 1,205.83 |
| Total Capital | 1,893.72 |
| Debt Weighting | 36.33 |
| Equity Weighting | 63.67 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 331.40 | 403.64 | 401.20 | 403.50 | 450.24 | 487.78 | 528.45 | 572.51 | 620.25 | 671.96 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | 193.96 | 143.99 | 138.21 | 168.10 | 223.94 | 214.67 | 232.57 | 251.96 | 272.97 | 295.73 |
| EBIT | 178.55 | 119.85 | 110.27 | 139.92 | 198.29 | 185.13 | 200.57 | 217.29 | 235.41 | 255.04 |
| Tax Rate | 26.13% | 23.42% | 21.73% | 21.28% | 20.67% | 22.65% | 22.65% | 22.65% | 22.65% | 22.65% |
| EBIAT | 131.89 | 91.78 | 86.30 | 110.14 | 157.31 | 143.21 | 155.15 | 168.08 | 182.10 | 197.28 |
| Depreciation | 15.41 | 24.14 | 27.95 | 28.18 | 25.65 | 29.54 | 32 | 34.67 | 37.56 | 40.69 |
| Accounts Receivable | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Inventories | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Accounts Payable | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Capital Expenditure | -11.62 | -13.24 | -4.20 | -5.04 | -4.99 | -9.94 | -10.77 | -11.67 | -12.64 | -13.69 |
| UFCF | 135.68 | 102.68 | 110.05 | 133.28 | 177.97 | 162.80 | 176.38 | 191.08 | 207.01 | 224.27 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV UFCF | 152.47 | 154.69 | 156.95 | 159.24 | 161.56 | |||||
| SUM PV UFCF | 784.90 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 6.78 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | 228.76 |
| Terminal Value | 4,785.78 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | 3,447.49 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | 4,232.39 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | 460.73 |
| Equity Value | 3,771.66 |
| Shares Outstanding | 56.14 |
| Equity Value Per Share | 67.19 |