Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

BWX Technologies, Inc. (BWXT)

$75.06

+0.68 (+0.91%)

All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD

Stock DCF: 17.68 | 75.06 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Revenue	1,799.89	1,894.92	2,123.52	2,124.07	2,232.83	2,358.38	2,490.98	2,631.03	2,778.96	2,935.21
Revenue (%)
EBITDA	368.13	413.61	452.50	497.02	430.15	501.17	529.35	559.11	590.55	623.75
EBITDA (%)
EBIT	308.03	351.89	391.83	427.94	356.31	425.64	449.57	474.85	501.55	529.75
EBIT (%)
Depreciation	60.10	61.72	60.67	69.08	73.84	75.53	79.77	84.26	89	94
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Total Cash	33.47	92.38	46.32	37.70	39.05	58.67	61.97	65.46	69.14	73.03
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables	461.29	492.85	679.96	685.42	674.61	689.31	728.06	769	812.24	857.90
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories	3.83	3.06	3.07	2.90	2.93	3.71	3.92	4.14	4.37	4.62
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable	114.75	170.68	184.39	189.84	127.11	182.52	192.78	203.62	215.07	227.16
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure	-109.34	-182.12	-255.03	-311.05	-198.31	-241.60	-255.18	-269.53	-284.68	-300.69
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price	$ 75.06
Beta	0.837
Diluted Shares Outstanding	91.70
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate	24.23
After-tax Cost of Debt	2.14%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity	8.550
Total Debt	1,288.87
Total Equity	6,883.16
Total Capital	8,172.03
Debt Weighting	15.77
Equity Weighting	84.23
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Revenue	1,799.89	1,894.92	2,123.52	2,124.07	2,232.83	2,358.38	2,490.98	2,631.03	2,778.96	2,935.21
EBITDA	368.13	413.61	452.50	497.02	430.15	501.17	529.35	559.11	590.55	623.75
EBIT	308.03	351.89	391.83	427.94	356.31	425.64	449.57	474.85	501.55	529.75
Tax Rate	18.99%	22.19%	23.06%	22.70%	24.23%	22.23%	22.23%	22.23%	22.23%	22.23%
EBIAT	249.55	273.79	301.49	330.78	269.96	331	349.61	369.27	390.03	411.96
Depreciation	60.10	61.72	60.67	69.08	73.84	75.53	79.77	84.26	89	94
Accounts Receivable	-	-31.57	-187.10	-5.46	10.81	-14.70	-38.76	-40.94	-43.24	-45.67
Inventories	-	0.78	-0.01	0.17	-0.03	-0.78	-0.21	-0.22	-0.23	-0.25
Accounts Payable	-	55.93	13.71	5.45	-62.73	55.41	10.26	10.84	11.45	12.09
Capital Expenditure	-109.34	-182.12	-255.03	-311.05	-198.31	-241.60	-255.18	-269.53	-284.68	-300.69
UFCF	200.31	178.53	-66.27	88.97	93.54	204.86	145.50	153.68	162.33	171.45
WACC
PV UFCF						190.50	125.82	123.57	121.37	119.20
SUM PV UFCF										680.46

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%)	7.54
Free cash flow (t + 1)	174.88
Terminal Value	3,156.70
Present Value of Terminal Value	2,194.74

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value	2,875.20
Net Debt	1,253.63
Equity Value	1,621.57
Shares Outstanding	91.70
Equity Value Per Share	17.68