Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

BWX Technologies, Inc. (BWXT)

$75.06

+0.68 (+0.91%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 17.68 | 75.06 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 1,799.891,894.922,123.522,124.072,232.832,358.382,490.982,631.032,778.962,935.21
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 368.13413.61452.50497.02430.15501.17529.35559.11590.55623.75
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 308.03351.89391.83427.94356.31425.64449.57474.85501.55529.75
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 60.1061.7260.6769.0873.8475.5379.7784.268994
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Total Cash 33.4792.3846.3237.7039.0558.6761.9765.4669.1473.03
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 461.29492.85679.96685.42674.61689.31728.06769812.24857.90
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 3.833.063.072.902.933.713.924.144.374.62
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 114.75170.68184.39189.84127.11182.52192.78203.62215.07227.16
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -109.34-182.12-255.03-311.05-198.31-241.60-255.18-269.53-284.68-300.69
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 75.06
Beta 0.837
Diluted Shares Outstanding 91.70
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 24.23
After-tax Cost of Debt 2.14%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 8.550
Total Debt 1,288.87
Total Equity 6,883.16
Total Capital 8,172.03
Debt Weighting 15.77
Equity Weighting 84.23
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 1,799.891,894.922,123.522,124.072,232.832,358.382,490.982,631.032,778.962,935.21
EBITDA 368.13413.61452.50497.02430.15501.17529.35559.11590.55623.75
EBIT 308.03351.89391.83427.94356.31425.64449.57474.85501.55529.75
Tax Rate 18.99%22.19%23.06%22.70%24.23%22.23%22.23%22.23%22.23%22.23%
EBIAT 249.55273.79301.49330.78269.96331349.61369.27390.03411.96
Depreciation 60.1061.7260.6769.0873.8475.5379.7784.268994
Accounts Receivable --31.57-187.10-5.4610.81-14.70-38.76-40.94-43.24-45.67
Inventories -0.78-0.010.17-0.03-0.78-0.21-0.22-0.23-0.25
Accounts Payable -55.9313.715.45-62.7355.4110.2610.8411.4512.09
Capital Expenditure -109.34-182.12-255.03-311.05-198.31-241.60-255.18-269.53-284.68-300.69
UFCF 200.31178.53-66.2788.9793.54204.86145.50153.68162.33171.45
WACC
PV UFCF 190.50125.82123.57121.37119.20
SUM PV UFCF 680.46

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 7.54
Free cash flow (t + 1) 174.88
Terminal Value 3,156.70
Present Value of Terminal Value 2,194.74

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 2,875.20
Net Debt 1,253.63
Equity Value 1,621.57
Shares Outstanding 91.70
Equity Value Per Share 17.68