Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
BWX Technologies, Inc. (BWXT)
$75.06
+0.68 (+0.91%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
Revenue | 1,799.89 | 1,894.92 | 2,123.52 | 2,124.07 | 2,232.83 | 2,358.38 | 2,490.98 | 2,631.03 | 2,778.96 | 2,935.21 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
EBITDA | 368.13 | 413.61 | 452.50 | 497.02 | 430.15 | 501.17 | 529.35 | 559.11 | 590.55 | 623.75 |
EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
EBIT | 308.03 | 351.89 | 391.83 | 427.94 | 356.31 | 425.64 | 449.57 | 474.85 | 501.55 | 529.75 |
EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
Depreciation | 60.10 | 61.72 | 60.67 | 69.08 | 73.84 | 75.53 | 79.77 | 84.26 | 89 | 94 |
Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
Total Cash | 33.47 | 92.38 | 46.32 | 37.70 | 39.05 | 58.67 | 61.97 | 65.46 | 69.14 | 73.03 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
Account Receivables | 461.29 | 492.85 | 679.96 | 685.42 | 674.61 | 689.31 | 728.06 | 769 | 812.24 | 857.90 |
Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
Inventories | 3.83 | 3.06 | 3.07 | 2.90 | 2.93 | 3.71 | 3.92 | 4.14 | 4.37 | 4.62 |
Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
Accounts Payable | 114.75 | 170.68 | 184.39 | 189.84 | 127.11 | 182.52 | 192.78 | 203.62 | 215.07 | 227.16 |
Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
Capital Expenditure | -109.34 | -182.12 | -255.03 | -311.05 | -198.31 | -241.60 | -255.18 | -269.53 | -284.68 | -300.69 |
Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
Share price | $ 75.06 |
---|---|
Beta | 0.837 |
Diluted Shares Outstanding | 91.70 |
Cost of Debt | |
Tax Rate | 24.23 |
After-tax Cost of Debt | 2.14% |
Risk-Free Rate | |
Market Risk Premium | |
Cost of Equity | 8.550 |
Total Debt | 1,288.87 |
Total Equity | 6,883.16 |
Total Capital | 8,172.03 |
Debt Weighting | 15.77 |
Equity Weighting | 84.23 |
Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
Revenue | 1,799.89 | 1,894.92 | 2,123.52 | 2,124.07 | 2,232.83 | 2,358.38 | 2,490.98 | 2,631.03 | 2,778.96 | 2,935.21 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
EBITDA | 368.13 | 413.61 | 452.50 | 497.02 | 430.15 | 501.17 | 529.35 | 559.11 | 590.55 | 623.75 |
EBIT | 308.03 | 351.89 | 391.83 | 427.94 | 356.31 | 425.64 | 449.57 | 474.85 | 501.55 | 529.75 |
Tax Rate | 18.99% | 22.19% | 23.06% | 22.70% | 24.23% | 22.23% | 22.23% | 22.23% | 22.23% | 22.23% |
EBIAT | 249.55 | 273.79 | 301.49 | 330.78 | 269.96 | 331 | 349.61 | 369.27 | 390.03 | 411.96 |
Depreciation | 60.10 | 61.72 | 60.67 | 69.08 | 73.84 | 75.53 | 79.77 | 84.26 | 89 | 94 |
Accounts Receivable | - | -31.57 | -187.10 | -5.46 | 10.81 | -14.70 | -38.76 | -40.94 | -43.24 | -45.67 |
Inventories | - | 0.78 | -0.01 | 0.17 | -0.03 | -0.78 | -0.21 | -0.22 | -0.23 | -0.25 |
Accounts Payable | - | 55.93 | 13.71 | 5.45 | -62.73 | 55.41 | 10.26 | 10.84 | 11.45 | 12.09 |
Capital Expenditure | -109.34 | -182.12 | -255.03 | -311.05 | -198.31 | -241.60 | -255.18 | -269.53 | -284.68 | -300.69 |
UFCF | 200.31 | 178.53 | -66.27 | 88.97 | 93.54 | 204.86 | 145.50 | 153.68 | 162.33 | 171.45 |
WACC | ||||||||||
PV UFCF | 190.50 | 125.82 | 123.57 | 121.37 | 119.20 | |||||
SUM PV UFCF | 680.46 |
Terminal Value
Growth in perpetuity method: | |
---|---|
Long-term growth rate | |
WACC (%) | 7.54 |
Free cash flow (t + 1) | 174.88 |
Terminal Value | 3,156.70 |
Present Value of Terminal Value | 2,194.74 |
Intrinsic Value
Enterprise Value | 2,875.20 |
---|---|
Net Debt | 1,253.63 |
Equity Value | 1,621.57 |
Shares Outstanding | 91.70 |
Equity Value Per Share | 17.68 |