Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Blackstone Mortgage Trust, Inc. (BXMT)
$17.85
+0.29 (+1.65%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 396.48 | 424.18 | 432.18 | 514.47 | 562.33 | 614.65 | 671.84 | 734.34 | 802.66 | 877.34 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| EBITDA | 645.01 | 763.56 | 485.46 | 759.84 | 962.55 | 951.34 | 1,039.85 | 1,136.60 | 1,242.35 | 1,357.93 |
| EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
| EBIT | - | - | - | - | - | 951.34 | 1,039.85 | 1,136.60 | 1,242.35 | 1,357.93 |
| EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
| Depreciation | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Total Cash | 105.66 | 150.09 | 289.97 | 551.15 | 291.34 | 354.12 | 387.07 | 423.08 | 462.45 | 505.47 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
| Account Receivables | 56.68 | 66.65 | 66.76 | 86.10 | 24,691.74 | 5,474.25 | 5,983.57 | 6,540.27 | 7,148.76 | 7,813.87 |
| Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
| Inventories | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
| Accounts Payable | 30.17 | 29.84 | 23.22 | 38.90 | 38.77 | 42.38 | 46.32 | 50.63 | 55.34 | 60.49 |
| Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 17.85 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 1.391 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 170.63 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | 2.13 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 4.89% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 10.062 |
| Total Debt | - |
| Total Equity | 3,045.77 |
| Total Capital | 3,045.77 |
| Debt Weighting | 0.00 |
| Equity Weighting | 100.00 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 396.48 | 424.18 | 432.18 | 514.47 | 562.33 | 614.65 | 671.84 | 734.34 | 802.66 | 877.34 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | 645.01 | 763.56 | 485.46 | 759.84 | 962.55 | 951.34 | 1,039.85 | 1,136.60 | 1,242.35 | 1,357.93 |
| EBIT | - | - | - | - | - | 951.34 | 1,039.85 | 1,136.60 | 1,242.35 | 1,357.93 |
| Tax Rate | 0.36% | 0.43% | 2.18% | 0.83% | 2.13% | 1.19% | 1.19% | 1.19% | 1.19% | 1.19% |
| EBIAT | - | - | - | - | - | 940.05 | 1,027.51 | 1,123.11 | 1,227.60 | 1,341.81 |
| Depreciation | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Accounts Receivable | - | -9.97 | -0.11 | -19.34 | -24,605.64 | 19,217.49 | -509.31 | -556.70 | -608.49 | -665.11 |
| Inventories | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Accounts Payable | - | -0.33 | -6.62 | 15.68 | -0.13 | 3.61 | 3.94 | 4.31 | 4.71 | 5.15 |
| Capital Expenditure | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| UFCF | - | - | - | - | - | 20,161.15 | 522.14 | 570.72 | 623.82 | 681.85 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV UFCF | - | 18,318.32 | 431.05 | 428.09 | 425.15 | 422.22 | ||||
| SUM PV UFCF | 20,024.83 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 10.06 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | 695.49 |
| Terminal Value | 8,628.92 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | 5,343.29 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | 25,368.12 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | -291.34 |
| Equity Value | 25,659.46 |
| Shares Outstanding | 170.63 |
| Equity Value Per Share | 150.38 |