Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Construcciones y Auxiliar de Ferroc... (CAF.MC)

28.1 €

-0.35 (-1.23%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 252.42 | 28.1 | undervalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 1,477.042,048.422,597.652,762.472,942.683,519.204,208.655,033.186,019.257,198.50
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 170.64195.32214.35184.97257.05315.11376.84450.67538.97644.56
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 135.95148.58133.6895.48169.91217.02259.54310.38371.19443.91
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 34.6946.7480.6789.4987.1498.09117.31140.29167.78200.64
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 456.35697.11634.13675.93682.74964.321,153.251,379.181,649.381,972.52
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables ----------
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 33.53339.09450.97406.79275.71424.27507.39606.80725.68867.85
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 423.39664.87688.10710.50780.29984.301,177.141,407.751,683.552,013.38
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -51.25-90.59-72.26-49.30-44.59-98.36-117.62-140.67-168.23-201.18
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 28.1
Beta 1.192
Diluted Shares Outstanding 34.23
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 33.82
After-tax Cost of Debt 2.80%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 9.130
Total Debt 1,014.78
Total Equity 961.89
Total Capital 1,976.67
Debt Weighting 51.34
Equity Weighting 48.66
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 1,477.042,048.422,597.652,762.472,942.683,519.204,208.655,033.186,019.257,198.50
EBITDA 170.64195.32214.35184.97257.05315.11376.84450.67538.97644.56
EBIT 135.95148.58133.6895.48169.91217.02259.54310.38371.19443.91
Tax Rate 37.19%46.06%59.53%81.64%33.82%51.65%51.65%51.65%51.65%51.65%
EBIAT 85.4080.1454.1017.53112.44104.94125.50150.08179.48214.65
Depreciation 34.6946.7480.6789.4987.1498.09117.31140.29167.78200.64
Accounts Receivable ----------
Inventories --305.56-111.8844.18131.09-148.56-83.12-99.40-118.88-142.17
Accounts Payable -241.4823.2422.3969.79204.01192.84230.62275.80329.83
Capital Expenditure -51.25-90.59-72.26-49.30-44.59-98.36-117.62-140.67-168.23-201.18
UFCF 68.83-27.79-26.13124.30355.87160.12234.90280.92335.95401.77
WACC
PV UFCF 151.23209.53236.67267.31301.93
SUM PV UFCF 1,166.67

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 5.88
Free cash flow (t + 1) 409.80
Terminal Value 10,561.94
Present Value of Terminal Value 7,937.32

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 9,103.99
Net Debt 463.40
Equity Value 8,640.58
Shares Outstanding 34.23
Equity Value Per Share 252.42