Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Caleres, Inc. (CAL)
$22.57
+0.26 (+1.17%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 2,785.58 | 2,834.85 | 2,921.56 | 2,117.07 | 2,777.60 | 2,836.57 | 2,896.78 | 2,958.28 | 3,021.08 | 3,085.21 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| EBITDA | 204.83 | 75.26 | 178.02 | -408.40 | 271.36 | 37.33 | 38.12 | 38.93 | 39.76 | 40.60 |
| EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
| EBIT | 140.76 | 12.56 | 112.45 | -468.94 | 219.03 | -27.91 | -28.50 | -29.11 | -29.72 | -30.36 |
| EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
| Depreciation | 64.07 | 62.70 | 65.56 | 60.54 | 52.33 | 65.24 | 66.62 | 68.04 | 69.48 | 70.96 |
| Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Total Cash | 64.05 | 30.20 | 45.22 | 88.30 | 30.12 | 57.68 | 58.90 | 60.15 | 61.43 | 62.74 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
| Account Receivables | 152.61 | 196.60 | 168.37 | 160.92 | 155.31 | 177.96 | 181.74 | 185.60 | 189.54 | 193.56 |
| Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
| Inventories | 569.38 | 683.17 | 618.41 | 487.95 | 596.81 | 625.41 | 638.69 | 652.25 | 666.09 | 680.24 |
| Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
| Accounts Payable | 272.96 | 316.30 | 267.02 | 280.50 | 331.47 | 313.61 | 320.26 | 327.06 | 334.01 | 341.10 |
| Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -51.18 | -66.90 | -50.15 | -22.06 | -24.14 | -44.39 | -45.33 | -46.30 | -47.28 | -48.28 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 22.57 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 1.769 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 37.09 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | 27.60 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 2.57% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 11.947 |
| Total Debt | 871.40 |
| Total Equity | 837.23 |
| Total Capital | 1,708.64 |
| Debt Weighting | 51.00 |
| Equity Weighting | 49.00 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 2,785.58 | 2,834.85 | 2,921.56 | 2,117.07 | 2,777.60 | 2,836.57 | 2,896.78 | 2,958.28 | 3,021.08 | 3,085.21 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | 204.83 | 75.26 | 178.02 | -408.40 | 271.36 | 37.33 | 38.12 | 38.93 | 39.76 | 40.60 |
| EBIT | 140.76 | 12.56 | 112.45 | -468.94 | 219.03 | -27.91 | -28.50 | -29.11 | -29.72 | -30.36 |
| Tax Rate | 28.94% | 5.44% | 20.07% | 15.08% | 27.60% | 19.43% | 19.43% | 19.43% | 19.43% | 19.43% |
| EBIAT | 100.03 | 11.88 | 89.88 | -398.21 | 158.59 | -22.49 | -22.97 | -23.45 | -23.95 | -24.46 |
| Depreciation | 64.07 | 62.70 | 65.56 | 60.54 | 52.33 | 65.24 | 66.62 | 68.04 | 69.48 | 70.96 |
| Accounts Receivable | - | -43.98 | 28.23 | 7.45 | 5.61 | -22.65 | -3.78 | -3.86 | -3.94 | -4.02 |
| Inventories | - | -113.79 | 64.77 | 130.45 | -108.85 | -28.61 | -13.28 | -13.56 | -13.85 | -14.14 |
| Accounts Payable | - | 43.34 | -49.28 | 13.48 | 50.97 | -17.86 | 6.66 | 6.80 | 6.94 | 7.09 |
| Capital Expenditure | -51.18 | -66.90 | -50.15 | -22.06 | -24.14 | -44.39 | -45.33 | -46.30 | -47.28 | -48.28 |
| UFCF | 112.92 | -106.76 | 149.01 | -208.35 | 134.50 | -70.76 | -12.07 | -12.33 | -12.59 | -12.86 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV UFCF | -66.04 | -10.51 | -10.02 | -9.55 | -9.10 | |||||
| SUM PV UFCF | -105.22 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 7.16 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | -13.12 |
| Terminal Value | -254.21 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | -179.90 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | -285.12 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | 841.29 |
| Equity Value | -1,126.41 |
| Shares Outstanding | 37.09 |
| Equity Value Per Share | -30.37 |