Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
CrossAmerica Partners LP (CAPL)
$19.019
+0.38 (+2.03%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 2,445.92 | 2,149.43 | 1,932.32 | 3,579.26 | 4,967.42 | 6,231.54 | 7,817.34 | 9,806.70 | 12,302.30 | 15,433 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| EBITDA | 101.92 | 98.88 | 184.84 | 114.53 | 177.14 | 312.80 | 392.40 | 492.26 | 617.53 | 774.68 |
| EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
| EBIT | 35.39 | 43.85 | 116.09 | 36.67 | 96.51 | 155.32 | 194.84 | 244.43 | 306.63 | 384.66 |
| EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
| Depreciation | 66.53 | 55.03 | 68.74 | 77.85 | 80.63 | 157.48 | 197.56 | 247.83 | 310.90 | 390.02 |
| Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Total Cash | 3.19 | 1.78 | 0.51 | 7.65 | 16.05 | 9.68 | 12.14 | 15.23 | 19.11 | 23.97 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
| Account Receivables | 25.86 | 36.46 | 29.45 | 34.48 | 31.57 | 73.24 | 91.87 | 115.25 | 144.58 | 181.38 |
| Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
| Inventories | 14.08 | 6.23 | 23.25 | 46.10 | 47.31 | 53.71 | 67.37 | 84.52 | 106.03 | 133.01 |
| Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
| Accounts Payable | 57.68 | 57.82 | 69.36 | 74.85 | 84.85 | 155 | 194.45 | 243.93 | 306 | 383.88 |
| Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -13.72 | -24.61 | -37.06 | -41.86 | -30.35 | -67.35 | -84.49 | -105.99 | -132.96 | -166.80 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 19.019 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 1.668 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 38.06 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | 1.11 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 3.36% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 11.607 |
| Total Debt | 943.35 |
| Total Equity | 723.86 |
| Total Capital | 1,667.21 |
| Debt Weighting | 56.58 |
| Equity Weighting | 43.42 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 2,445.92 | 2,149.43 | 1,932.32 | 3,579.26 | 4,967.42 | 6,231.54 | 7,817.34 | 9,806.70 | 12,302.30 | 15,433 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | 101.92 | 98.88 | 184.84 | 114.53 | 177.14 | 312.80 | 392.40 | 492.26 | 617.53 | 774.68 |
| EBIT | 35.39 | 43.85 | 116.09 | 36.67 | 96.51 | 155.32 | 194.84 | 244.43 | 306.63 | 384.66 |
| Tax Rate | -108.95% | -7.30% | -7.99% | -17.50% | 1.11% | -28.13% | -28.13% | -28.13% | -28.13% | -28.13% |
| EBIAT | 73.95 | 47.05 | 125.37 | 43.09 | 95.44 | 199 | 249.65 | 313.18 | 392.87 | 492.85 |
| Depreciation | 66.53 | 55.03 | 68.74 | 77.85 | 80.63 | 157.48 | 197.56 | 247.83 | 310.90 | 390.02 |
| Accounts Receivable | - | -10.60 | 7.01 | -5.03 | 2.91 | -41.67 | -18.64 | -23.38 | -29.33 | -36.79 |
| Inventories | - | 7.85 | -17.02 | -22.85 | -1.21 | -6.40 | -13.67 | -17.15 | -21.51 | -26.98 |
| Accounts Payable | - | 0.15 | 11.53 | 5.50 | 9.99 | 70.16 | 39.44 | 49.48 | 62.08 | 77.87 |
| Capital Expenditure | -13.72 | -24.61 | -37.06 | -41.86 | -30.35 | -67.35 | -84.49 | -105.99 | -132.96 | -166.80 |
| UFCF | 126.76 | 74.87 | 158.57 | 56.70 | 157.41 | 311.22 | 369.86 | 463.98 | 582.05 | 730.17 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV UFCF | 291.03 | 323.41 | 379.38 | 445.04 | 522.06 | |||||
| SUM PV UFCF | 1,960.92 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 6.94 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | 744.77 |
| Terminal Value | 15,076.36 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | 10,779.42 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | 12,740.34 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | 927.30 |
| Equity Value | 11,813.04 |
| Shares Outstanding | 38.06 |
| Equity Value Per Share | 310.38 |