Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Casey's General Stores, Inc. (CASY)
$278.55
+0.69 (+0.25%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Actual | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected | 2028 Projected |
Revenue | 9,352.91 | 9,175.30 | 8,707.19 | 12,952.59 | 15,094.47 | 17,294.23 | 19,814.56 | 22,702.18 | 26,010.62 | 29,801.21 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
EBITDA | 563.45 | 646.64 | 719.24 | 801.24 | 952.46 | 1,170.07 | 1,340.58 | 1,535.95 | 1,759.79 | 2,016.24 |
EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
EBIT | 319.06 | 395.47 | 454.05 | 497.70 | 639.33 | 726.85 | 832.77 | 954.13 | 1,093.18 | 1,252.49 |
EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
Depreciation | 244.39 | 251.17 | 265.20 | 303.54 | 313.13 | 443.22 | 507.81 | 581.82 | 666.61 | 763.75 |
Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Actual | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected | 2028 Projected |
Total Cash | 63.30 | 78.28 | 336.54 | 158.88 | 378.87 | 315.85 | 361.88 | 414.61 | 475.04 | 544.27 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
Account Receivables | 66.75 | 63.17 | 89.28 | 152.10 | 143.89 | 157.55 | 180.51 | 206.82 | 236.96 | 271.49 |
Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
Inventories | 273.04 | 236.01 | 286.60 | 396.20 | 376.09 | 495.77 | 568.02 | 650.80 | 745.64 | 854.30 |
Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
Accounts Payable | 335.24 | 184.80 | 355.47 | 588.78 | 560.55 | 620.52 | 710.95 | 814.56 | 933.27 | 1,069.28 |
Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
Capital Expenditure | -394.70 | -438.98 | -441.25 | -326.48 | -476.57 | -683.12 | -782.67 | -896.73 | -1,027.41 | -1,177.14 |
Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
Share price | $ 278.55 |
---|---|
Beta | 0.825 |
Diluted Shares Outstanding | 37.57 |
Cost of Debt | |
Tax Rate | 23.97 |
After-tax Cost of Debt | 2.36% |
Risk-Free Rate | |
Market Risk Premium | |
Cost of Equity | 8.438 |
Total Debt | 1,673.37 |
Total Equity | 10,466.15 |
Total Capital | 12,139.52 |
Debt Weighting | 13.78 |
Equity Weighting | 86.22 |
Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Actual | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected | 2028 Projected |
Revenue | 9,352.91 | 9,175.30 | 8,707.19 | 12,952.59 | 15,094.47 | 17,294.23 | 19,814.56 | 22,702.18 | 26,010.62 | 29,801.21 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
EBITDA | 563.45 | 646.64 | 719.24 | 801.24 | 952.46 | 1,170.07 | 1,340.58 | 1,535.95 | 1,759.79 | 2,016.24 |
EBIT | 319.06 | 395.47 | 454.05 | 497.70 | 639.33 | 726.85 | 832.77 | 954.13 | 1,093.18 | 1,252.49 |
Tax Rate | 22.60% | 22.86% | 23.19% | 22.90% | 23.97% | 23.10% | 23.10% | 23.10% | 23.10% | 23.10% |
EBIAT | 246.97 | 305.05 | 348.75 | 383.71 | 486.09 | 558.91 | 640.37 | 733.69 | 840.61 | 963.11 |
Depreciation | 244.39 | 251.17 | 265.20 | 303.54 | 313.13 | 443.22 | 507.81 | 581.82 | 666.61 | 763.75 |
Accounts Receivable | - | 3.58 | -26.11 | -62.82 | 8.20 | -13.66 | -22.96 | -26.31 | -30.14 | -34.53 |
Inventories | - | 37.03 | -50.59 | -109.60 | 20.11 | -119.68 | -72.25 | -82.78 | -94.84 | -108.66 |
Accounts Payable | - | -150.44 | 170.67 | 233.31 | -28.24 | 59.98 | 90.43 | 103.61 | 118.71 | 136.01 |
Capital Expenditure | -394.70 | -438.98 | -441.25 | -326.48 | -476.57 | -683.12 | -782.67 | -896.73 | -1,027.41 | -1,177.14 |
UFCF | 96.65 | 7.43 | 266.67 | 421.67 | 322.73 | 245.65 | 360.73 | 413.30 | 473.53 | 542.54 |
WACC | ||||||||||
PV UFCF | 228.30 | 311.57 | 331.76 | 353.26 | 376.16 | |||||
SUM PV UFCF | 1,601.06 |
Terminal Value
Growth in perpetuity method: | |
---|---|
Long-term growth rate | |
WACC (%) | 7.60 |
Free cash flow (t + 1) | 553.39 |
Terminal Value | 9,881.96 |
Present Value of Terminal Value | 6,851.44 |
Intrinsic Value
Enterprise Value | 8,452.50 |
---|---|
Net Debt | 1,294.51 |
Equity Value | 7,157.99 |
Shares Outstanding | 37.57 |
Equity Value Per Share | 190.51 |