Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Casey's General Stores, Inc. (CASY)

$278.55

+0.69 (+0.25%)

All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD

Stock DCF: 190.51 | 278.55 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year A/P	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Actual	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected	2028 Projected
Revenue	9,352.91	9,175.30	8,707.19	12,952.59	15,094.47	17,294.23	19,814.56	22,702.18	26,010.62	29,801.21
Revenue (%)
EBITDA	563.45	646.64	719.24	801.24	952.46	1,170.07	1,340.58	1,535.95	1,759.79	2,016.24
EBITDA (%)
EBIT	319.06	395.47	454.05	497.70	639.33	726.85	832.77	954.13	1,093.18	1,252.49
EBIT (%)
Depreciation	244.39	251.17	265.20	303.54	313.13	443.22	507.81	581.82	666.61	763.75
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year A/P	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Actual	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected	2028 Projected
Total Cash	63.30	78.28	336.54	158.88	378.87	315.85	361.88	414.61	475.04	544.27
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables	66.75	63.17	89.28	152.10	143.89	157.55	180.51	206.82	236.96	271.49
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories	273.04	236.01	286.60	396.20	376.09	495.77	568.02	650.80	745.64	854.30
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable	335.24	184.80	355.47	588.78	560.55	620.52	710.95	814.56	933.27	1,069.28
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure	-394.70	-438.98	-441.25	-326.48	-476.57	-683.12	-782.67	-896.73	-1,027.41	-1,177.14
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price	$ 278.55
Beta	0.825
Diluted Shares Outstanding	37.57
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate	23.97
After-tax Cost of Debt	2.36%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity	8.438
Total Debt	1,673.37
Total Equity	10,466.15
Total Capital	12,139.52
Debt Weighting	13.78
Equity Weighting	86.22
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year A/P	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Actual	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected	2028 Projected
Revenue	9,352.91	9,175.30	8,707.19	12,952.59	15,094.47	17,294.23	19,814.56	22,702.18	26,010.62	29,801.21
EBITDA	563.45	646.64	719.24	801.24	952.46	1,170.07	1,340.58	1,535.95	1,759.79	2,016.24
EBIT	319.06	395.47	454.05	497.70	639.33	726.85	832.77	954.13	1,093.18	1,252.49
Tax Rate	22.60%	22.86%	23.19%	22.90%	23.97%	23.10%	23.10%	23.10%	23.10%	23.10%
EBIAT	246.97	305.05	348.75	383.71	486.09	558.91	640.37	733.69	840.61	963.11
Depreciation	244.39	251.17	265.20	303.54	313.13	443.22	507.81	581.82	666.61	763.75
Accounts Receivable	-	3.58	-26.11	-62.82	8.20	-13.66	-22.96	-26.31	-30.14	-34.53
Inventories	-	37.03	-50.59	-109.60	20.11	-119.68	-72.25	-82.78	-94.84	-108.66
Accounts Payable	-	-150.44	170.67	233.31	-28.24	59.98	90.43	103.61	118.71	136.01
Capital Expenditure	-394.70	-438.98	-441.25	-326.48	-476.57	-683.12	-782.67	-896.73	-1,027.41	-1,177.14
UFCF	96.65	7.43	266.67	421.67	322.73	245.65	360.73	413.30	473.53	542.54
WACC
PV UFCF						228.30	311.57	331.76	353.26	376.16
SUM PV UFCF										1,601.06

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%)	7.60
Free cash flow (t + 1)	553.39
Terminal Value	9,881.96
Present Value of Terminal Value	6,851.44

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value	8,452.50
Net Debt	1,294.51
Equity Value	7,157.99
Shares Outstanding	37.57
Equity Value Per Share	190.51