Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Casey's General Stores, Inc. (CASY)
$226.885
-2.17 (-0.95%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
Revenue | 8,391.12 | 9,352.91 | 9,175.30 | 8,707.19 | 12,952.59 | 14,675.89 | 16,628.47 | 18,840.82 | 21,347.53 | 24,187.74 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
EBITDA | 435.41 | 507.79 | 539.80 | 625.89 | 687.30 | 851.08 | 964.31 | 1,092.61 | 1,237.97 | 1,402.68 |
EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
EBIT | 214.44 | 263.40 | 288.63 | 360.69 | 383.76 | 458.55 | 519.56 | 588.69 | 667.01 | 755.76 |
EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
Depreciation | 220.97 | 244.39 | 251.17 | 265.20 | 303.54 | 392.52 | 444.75 | 503.92 | 570.96 | 646.93 |
Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
Total Cash | 53.68 | 63.30 | 78.28 | 336.54 | 158.88 | 213.13 | 241.49 | 273.62 | 310.02 | 351.27 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
Account Receivables | 95.73 | 66.75 | 63.17 | 89.28 | 152.10 | 139.20 | 157.72 | 178.71 | 202.48 | 229.42 |
Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
Inventories | 241.67 | 273.04 | 236.01 | 286.60 | 396.20 | 432.11 | 489.61 | 554.75 | 628.55 | 712.18 |
Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
Accounts Payable | 321.42 | 335.24 | 184.80 | 355.47 | 588.78 | 530.01 | 600.52 | 680.42 | 770.95 | 873.52 |
Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
Capital Expenditure | -577.42 | -394.70 | -438.98 | -441.25 | -326.48 | -689 | -780.67 | -884.54 | -1,002.22 | -1,135.56 |
Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
Share price | $ 226.885 |
---|---|
Beta | 0.812 |
Diluted Shares Outstanding | 37.36 |
Cost of Debt | |
Tax Rate | 22.90 |
After-tax Cost of Debt | -2.61% |
Risk-Free Rate | |
Market Risk Premium | |
Cost of Equity | 7.576 |
Total Debt | 1,687.87 |
Total Equity | 8,475.67 |
Total Capital | 10,163.54 |
Debt Weighting | 16.61 |
Equity Weighting | 83.39 |
Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
Revenue | 8,391.12 | 9,352.91 | 9,175.30 | 8,707.19 | 12,952.59 | 14,675.89 | 16,628.47 | 18,840.82 | 21,347.53 | 24,187.74 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
EBITDA | 435.41 | 507.79 | 539.80 | 625.89 | 687.30 | 851.08 | 964.31 | 1,092.61 | 1,237.97 | 1,402.68 |
EBIT | 214.44 | 263.40 | 288.63 | 360.69 | 383.76 | 458.55 | 519.56 | 588.69 | 667.01 | 755.76 |
Tax Rate | -48.25% | 22.60% | 22.86% | 23.19% | 22.90% | 8.66% | 8.66% | 8.66% | 8.66% | 8.66% |
EBIAT | 317.90 | 203.89 | 222.64 | 277.05 | 295.87 | 418.84 | 474.57 | 537.71 | 609.25 | 690.31 |
Depreciation | 220.97 | 244.39 | 251.17 | 265.20 | 303.54 | 392.52 | 444.75 | 503.92 | 570.96 | 646.93 |
Accounts Receivable | - | 28.98 | 3.58 | -26.11 | -62.82 | 12.90 | -18.52 | -20.98 | -23.78 | -26.94 |
Inventories | - | -31.37 | 37.03 | -50.59 | -109.60 | -35.91 | -57.49 | -65.14 | -73.81 | -83.63 |
Accounts Payable | - | 13.82 | -150.44 | 170.67 | 233.31 | -58.78 | 70.52 | 79.90 | 90.53 | 102.57 |
Capital Expenditure | -577.42 | -394.70 | -438.98 | -441.25 | -326.48 | -689 | -780.67 | -884.54 | -1,002.22 | -1,135.56 |
UFCF | -38.55 | 65 | -74.99 | 194.96 | 333.82 | 40.57 | 133.15 | 150.86 | 170.93 | 193.68 |
WACC | ||||||||||
PV UFCF | 38.31 | 118.75 | 127.06 | 135.96 | 145.48 | |||||
SUM PV UFCF | 565.56 |
Terminal Value
Growth in perpetuity method: | |
---|---|
Long-term growth rate | |
WACC (%) | 5.89 |
Free cash flow (t + 1) | 197.55 |
Terminal Value | 5,078.37 |
Present Value of Terminal Value | 3,814.60 |
Intrinsic Value
Enterprise Value | 4,380.16 |
---|---|
Net Debt | 1,528.99 |
Equity Value | 2,851.17 |
Shares Outstanding | 37.36 |
Equity Value Per Share | 76.32 |