Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Casey's General Stores, Inc. (CASY)

$226.885

-2.17 (-0.95%)

All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD

Stock DCF: 76.32 | 226.885 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Revenue	8,391.12	9,352.91	9,175.30	8,707.19	12,952.59	14,675.89	16,628.47	18,840.82	21,347.53	24,187.74
Revenue (%)
EBITDA	435.41	507.79	539.80	625.89	687.30	851.08	964.31	1,092.61	1,237.97	1,402.68
EBITDA (%)
EBIT	214.44	263.40	288.63	360.69	383.76	458.55	519.56	588.69	667.01	755.76
EBIT (%)
Depreciation	220.97	244.39	251.17	265.20	303.54	392.52	444.75	503.92	570.96	646.93
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Total Cash	53.68	63.30	78.28	336.54	158.88	213.13	241.49	273.62	310.02	351.27
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables	95.73	66.75	63.17	89.28	152.10	139.20	157.72	178.71	202.48	229.42
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories	241.67	273.04	236.01	286.60	396.20	432.11	489.61	554.75	628.55	712.18
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable	321.42	335.24	184.80	355.47	588.78	530.01	600.52	680.42	770.95	873.52
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure	-577.42	-394.70	-438.98	-441.25	-326.48	-689	-780.67	-884.54	-1,002.22	-1,135.56
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price	$ 226.885
Beta	0.812
Diluted Shares Outstanding	37.36
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate	22.90
After-tax Cost of Debt	-2.61%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity	7.576
Total Debt	1,687.87
Total Equity	8,475.67
Total Capital	10,163.54
Debt Weighting	16.61
Equity Weighting	83.39
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Revenue	8,391.12	9,352.91	9,175.30	8,707.19	12,952.59	14,675.89	16,628.47	18,840.82	21,347.53	24,187.74
EBITDA	435.41	507.79	539.80	625.89	687.30	851.08	964.31	1,092.61	1,237.97	1,402.68
EBIT	214.44	263.40	288.63	360.69	383.76	458.55	519.56	588.69	667.01	755.76
Tax Rate	-48.25%	22.60%	22.86%	23.19%	22.90%	8.66%	8.66%	8.66%	8.66%	8.66%
EBIAT	317.90	203.89	222.64	277.05	295.87	418.84	474.57	537.71	609.25	690.31
Depreciation	220.97	244.39	251.17	265.20	303.54	392.52	444.75	503.92	570.96	646.93
Accounts Receivable	-	28.98	3.58	-26.11	-62.82	12.90	-18.52	-20.98	-23.78	-26.94
Inventories	-	-31.37	37.03	-50.59	-109.60	-35.91	-57.49	-65.14	-73.81	-83.63
Accounts Payable	-	13.82	-150.44	170.67	233.31	-58.78	70.52	79.90	90.53	102.57
Capital Expenditure	-577.42	-394.70	-438.98	-441.25	-326.48	-689	-780.67	-884.54	-1,002.22	-1,135.56
UFCF	-38.55	65	-74.99	194.96	333.82	40.57	133.15	150.86	170.93	193.68
WACC
PV UFCF						38.31	118.75	127.06	135.96	145.48
SUM PV UFCF										565.56

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%)	5.89
Free cash flow (t + 1)	197.55
Terminal Value	5,078.37
Present Value of Terminal Value	3,814.60

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value	4,380.16
Net Debt	1,528.99
Equity Value	2,851.17
Shares Outstanding	37.36
Equity Value Per Share	76.32