Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Casey's General Stores, Inc. (CASY)

$226.885

-2.17 (-0.95%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 76.32 | 226.885 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 8,391.129,352.919,175.308,707.1912,952.5914,675.8916,628.4718,840.8221,347.5324,187.74
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 435.41507.79539.80625.89687.30851.08964.311,092.611,237.971,402.68
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 214.44263.40288.63360.69383.76458.55519.56588.69667.01755.76
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 220.97244.39251.17265.20303.54392.52444.75503.92570.96646.93
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Total Cash 53.6863.3078.28336.54158.88213.13241.49273.62310.02351.27
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 95.7366.7563.1789.28152.10139.20157.72178.71202.48229.42
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 241.67273.04236.01286.60396.20432.11489.61554.75628.55712.18
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 321.42335.24184.80355.47588.78530.01600.52680.42770.95873.52
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -577.42-394.70-438.98-441.25-326.48-689-780.67-884.54-1,002.22-1,135.56
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 226.885
Beta 0.812
Diluted Shares Outstanding 37.36
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 22.90
After-tax Cost of Debt -2.61%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 7.576
Total Debt 1,687.87
Total Equity 8,475.67
Total Capital 10,163.54
Debt Weighting 16.61
Equity Weighting 83.39
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 8,391.129,352.919,175.308,707.1912,952.5914,675.8916,628.4718,840.8221,347.5324,187.74
EBITDA 435.41507.79539.80625.89687.30851.08964.311,092.611,237.971,402.68
EBIT 214.44263.40288.63360.69383.76458.55519.56588.69667.01755.76
Tax Rate -48.25%22.60%22.86%23.19%22.90%8.66%8.66%8.66%8.66%8.66%
EBIAT 317.90203.89222.64277.05295.87418.84474.57537.71609.25690.31
Depreciation 220.97244.39251.17265.20303.54392.52444.75503.92570.96646.93
Accounts Receivable -28.983.58-26.11-62.8212.90-18.52-20.98-23.78-26.94
Inventories --31.3737.03-50.59-109.60-35.91-57.49-65.14-73.81-83.63
Accounts Payable -13.82-150.44170.67233.31-58.7870.5279.9090.53102.57
Capital Expenditure -577.42-394.70-438.98-441.25-326.48-689-780.67-884.54-1,002.22-1,135.56
UFCF -38.5565-74.99194.96333.8240.57133.15150.86170.93193.68
WACC
PV UFCF 38.31118.75127.06135.96145.48
SUM PV UFCF 565.56

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 5.89
Free cash flow (t + 1) 197.55
Terminal Value 5,078.37
Present Value of Terminal Value 3,814.60

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 4,380.16
Net Debt 1,528.99
Equity Value 2,851.17
Shares Outstanding 37.36
Equity Value Per Share 76.32