Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Casey's General Stores, Inc. (CASY)

$278.55

+0.69 (+0.25%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 190.51 | 278.55 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Actual
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
2028
Projected
Revenue 9,352.919,175.308,707.1912,952.5915,094.4717,294.2319,814.5622,702.1826,010.6229,801.21
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 563.45646.64719.24801.24952.461,170.071,340.581,535.951,759.792,016.24
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 319.06395.47454.05497.70639.33726.85832.77954.131,093.181,252.49
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 244.39251.17265.20303.54313.13443.22507.81581.82666.61763.75
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Actual
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
2028
Projected
Total Cash 63.3078.28336.54158.88378.87315.85361.88414.61475.04544.27
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 66.7563.1789.28152.10143.89157.55180.51206.82236.96271.49
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 273.04236.01286.60396.20376.09495.77568.02650.80745.64854.30
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 335.24184.80355.47588.78560.55620.52710.95814.56933.271,069.28
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -394.70-438.98-441.25-326.48-476.57-683.12-782.67-896.73-1,027.41-1,177.14
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 278.55
Beta 0.825
Diluted Shares Outstanding 37.57
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 23.97
After-tax Cost of Debt 2.36%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 8.438
Total Debt 1,673.37
Total Equity 10,466.15
Total Capital 12,139.52
Debt Weighting 13.78
Equity Weighting 86.22
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Actual
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
2028
Projected
Revenue 9,352.919,175.308,707.1912,952.5915,094.4717,294.2319,814.5622,702.1826,010.6229,801.21
EBITDA 563.45646.64719.24801.24952.461,170.071,340.581,535.951,759.792,016.24
EBIT 319.06395.47454.05497.70639.33726.85832.77954.131,093.181,252.49
Tax Rate 22.60%22.86%23.19%22.90%23.97%23.10%23.10%23.10%23.10%23.10%
EBIAT 246.97305.05348.75383.71486.09558.91640.37733.69840.61963.11
Depreciation 244.39251.17265.20303.54313.13443.22507.81581.82666.61763.75
Accounts Receivable -3.58-26.11-62.828.20-13.66-22.96-26.31-30.14-34.53
Inventories -37.03-50.59-109.6020.11-119.68-72.25-82.78-94.84-108.66
Accounts Payable --150.44170.67233.31-28.2459.9890.43103.61118.71136.01
Capital Expenditure -394.70-438.98-441.25-326.48-476.57-683.12-782.67-896.73-1,027.41-1,177.14
UFCF 96.657.43266.67421.67322.73245.65360.73413.30473.53542.54
WACC
PV UFCF 228.30311.57331.76353.26376.16
SUM PV UFCF 1,601.06

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 7.60
Free cash flow (t + 1) 553.39
Terminal Value 9,881.96
Present Value of Terminal Value 6,851.44

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 8,452.50
Net Debt 1,294.51
Equity Value 7,157.99
Shares Outstanding 37.57
Equity Value Per Share 190.51