Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Caterpillar Inc. (CAT)

$274.61

-1.63 (-0.59%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 143.75 | 274.61 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 54,72253,80041,74850,97159,42761,595.4263,842.9766,172.5268,587.0871,089.75
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 10,99210,8106,94111,04412,33912,225.0112,671.0913,133.4413,612.6714,109.38
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 8,2268,2334,5098,69210,1209,266.169,604.289,954.7310,317.9610,694.45
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 2,7662,5772,4322,3522,2192,958.853,066.813,178.723,294.713,414.93
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Total Cash 7,8578,2849,3529,2547,00410,113.7410,482.7810,865.2911,261.7511,672.68
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 17,45217,90416,78017,37517,86920,883.4721,645.4922,435.3023,253.9424,102.45
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 11,52911,26611,40214,03816,27015,305.1815,863.6516,442.5017,042.4617,664.32
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 7,0515,9576,1288,1548,6898,531.568,842.869,165.539,499.979,846.61
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -2,916-2,669-2,115-2,472-2,599-3,027.92-3,138.40-3,252.92-3,371.61-3,494.64
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 274.61
Beta 1.080
Diluted Shares Outstanding 548.50
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 23.39
After-tax Cost of Debt 0.92%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 9.617
Total Debt 36,993
Total Equity 150,623.58
Total Capital 187,616.58
Debt Weighting 19.72
Equity Weighting 80.28
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 54,72253,80041,74850,97159,42761,595.4263,842.9766,172.5268,587.0871,089.75
EBITDA 10,99210,8106,94111,04412,33912,225.0112,671.0913,133.4413,612.6714,109.38
EBIT 8,2268,2334,5098,69210,1209,266.169,604.289,954.7310,317.9610,694.45
Tax Rate 21.41%22.00%24.96%20.90%23.39%22.53%22.53%22.53%22.53%22.53%
EBIAT 6,464.496,421.363,383.736,874.997,753.047,178.167,440.087,711.567,992.958,284.60
Depreciation 2,7662,5772,4322,3522,2192,958.853,066.813,178.723,294.713,414.93
Accounts Receivable --4521,124-595-494-3,014.47-762.01-789.82-818.64-848.51
Inventories -263-136-2,636-2,232964.82-558.47-578.85-599.97-621.86
Accounts Payable --1,0941712,026535-157.44311.31322.67334.44346.64
Capital Expenditure -2,916-2,669-2,115-2,472-2,599-3,027.92-3,138.40-3,252.92-3,371.61-3,494.64
UFCF 6,314.495,046.364,859.725,549.995,182.044,9026,359.326,591.366,831.887,081.16
WACC
PV UFCF 4,543.095,462.205,2475,040.274,841.69
SUM PV UFCF 25,134.26

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 7.90
Free cash flow (t + 1) 7,222.79
Terminal Value 122,420.10
Present Value of Terminal Value 83,703.86

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 108,838.13
Net Debt 29,989
Equity Value 78,849.13
Shares Outstanding 548.50
Equity Value Per Share 143.75