Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Caterpillar Inc. (CAT)

$274.61

-1.63 (-0.59%)

All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD

Stock DCF: 143.75 | 274.61 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Revenue	54,722	53,800	41,748	50,971	59,427	61,595.42	63,842.97	66,172.52	68,587.08	71,089.75
Revenue (%)
EBITDA	10,992	10,810	6,941	11,044	12,339	12,225.01	12,671.09	13,133.44	13,612.67	14,109.38
EBITDA (%)
EBIT	8,226	8,233	4,509	8,692	10,120	9,266.16	9,604.28	9,954.73	10,317.96	10,694.45
EBIT (%)
Depreciation	2,766	2,577	2,432	2,352	2,219	2,958.85	3,066.81	3,178.72	3,294.71	3,414.93
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Total Cash	7,857	8,284	9,352	9,254	7,004	10,113.74	10,482.78	10,865.29	11,261.75	11,672.68
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables	17,452	17,904	16,780	17,375	17,869	20,883.47	21,645.49	22,435.30	23,253.94	24,102.45
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories	11,529	11,266	11,402	14,038	16,270	15,305.18	15,863.65	16,442.50	17,042.46	17,664.32
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable	7,051	5,957	6,128	8,154	8,689	8,531.56	8,842.86	9,165.53	9,499.97	9,846.61
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure	-2,916	-2,669	-2,115	-2,472	-2,599	-3,027.92	-3,138.40	-3,252.92	-3,371.61	-3,494.64
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price	$ 274.61
Beta	1.080
Diluted Shares Outstanding	548.50
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate	23.39
After-tax Cost of Debt	0.92%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity	9.617
Total Debt	36,993
Total Equity	150,623.58
Total Capital	187,616.58
Debt Weighting	19.72
Equity Weighting	80.28
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Revenue	54,722	53,800	41,748	50,971	59,427	61,595.42	63,842.97	66,172.52	68,587.08	71,089.75
EBITDA	10,992	10,810	6,941	11,044	12,339	12,225.01	12,671.09	13,133.44	13,612.67	14,109.38
EBIT	8,226	8,233	4,509	8,692	10,120	9,266.16	9,604.28	9,954.73	10,317.96	10,694.45
Tax Rate	21.41%	22.00%	24.96%	20.90%	23.39%	22.53%	22.53%	22.53%	22.53%	22.53%
EBIAT	6,464.49	6,421.36	3,383.73	6,874.99	7,753.04	7,178.16	7,440.08	7,711.56	7,992.95	8,284.60
Depreciation	2,766	2,577	2,432	2,352	2,219	2,958.85	3,066.81	3,178.72	3,294.71	3,414.93
Accounts Receivable	-	-452	1,124	-595	-494	-3,014.47	-762.01	-789.82	-818.64	-848.51
Inventories	-	263	-136	-2,636	-2,232	964.82	-558.47	-578.85	-599.97	-621.86
Accounts Payable	-	-1,094	171	2,026	535	-157.44	311.31	322.67	334.44	346.64
Capital Expenditure	-2,916	-2,669	-2,115	-2,472	-2,599	-3,027.92	-3,138.40	-3,252.92	-3,371.61	-3,494.64
UFCF	6,314.49	5,046.36	4,859.72	5,549.99	5,182.04	4,902	6,359.32	6,591.36	6,831.88	7,081.16
WACC
PV UFCF						4,543.09	5,462.20	5,247	5,040.27	4,841.69
SUM PV UFCF										25,134.26

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%)	7.90
Free cash flow (t + 1)	7,222.79
Terminal Value	122,420.10
Present Value of Terminal Value	83,703.86

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value	108,838.13
Net Debt	29,989
Equity Value	78,849.13
Shares Outstanding	548.50
Equity Value Per Share	143.75