Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Caterpillar Inc. (CAT)
$274.61
-1.63 (-0.59%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
Revenue | 54,722 | 53,800 | 41,748 | 50,971 | 59,427 | 61,595.42 | 63,842.97 | 66,172.52 | 68,587.08 | 71,089.75 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
EBITDA | 10,992 | 10,810 | 6,941 | 11,044 | 12,339 | 12,225.01 | 12,671.09 | 13,133.44 | 13,612.67 | 14,109.38 |
EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
EBIT | 8,226 | 8,233 | 4,509 | 8,692 | 10,120 | 9,266.16 | 9,604.28 | 9,954.73 | 10,317.96 | 10,694.45 |
EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
Depreciation | 2,766 | 2,577 | 2,432 | 2,352 | 2,219 | 2,958.85 | 3,066.81 | 3,178.72 | 3,294.71 | 3,414.93 |
Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
Total Cash | 7,857 | 8,284 | 9,352 | 9,254 | 7,004 | 10,113.74 | 10,482.78 | 10,865.29 | 11,261.75 | 11,672.68 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
Account Receivables | 17,452 | 17,904 | 16,780 | 17,375 | 17,869 | 20,883.47 | 21,645.49 | 22,435.30 | 23,253.94 | 24,102.45 |
Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
Inventories | 11,529 | 11,266 | 11,402 | 14,038 | 16,270 | 15,305.18 | 15,863.65 | 16,442.50 | 17,042.46 | 17,664.32 |
Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
Accounts Payable | 7,051 | 5,957 | 6,128 | 8,154 | 8,689 | 8,531.56 | 8,842.86 | 9,165.53 | 9,499.97 | 9,846.61 |
Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
Capital Expenditure | -2,916 | -2,669 | -2,115 | -2,472 | -2,599 | -3,027.92 | -3,138.40 | -3,252.92 | -3,371.61 | -3,494.64 |
Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
Share price | $ 274.61 |
---|---|
Beta | 1.080 |
Diluted Shares Outstanding | 548.50 |
Cost of Debt | |
Tax Rate | 23.39 |
After-tax Cost of Debt | 0.92% |
Risk-Free Rate | |
Market Risk Premium | |
Cost of Equity | 9.617 |
Total Debt | 36,993 |
Total Equity | 150,623.58 |
Total Capital | 187,616.58 |
Debt Weighting | 19.72 |
Equity Weighting | 80.28 |
Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
Revenue | 54,722 | 53,800 | 41,748 | 50,971 | 59,427 | 61,595.42 | 63,842.97 | 66,172.52 | 68,587.08 | 71,089.75 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
EBITDA | 10,992 | 10,810 | 6,941 | 11,044 | 12,339 | 12,225.01 | 12,671.09 | 13,133.44 | 13,612.67 | 14,109.38 |
EBIT | 8,226 | 8,233 | 4,509 | 8,692 | 10,120 | 9,266.16 | 9,604.28 | 9,954.73 | 10,317.96 | 10,694.45 |
Tax Rate | 21.41% | 22.00% | 24.96% | 20.90% | 23.39% | 22.53% | 22.53% | 22.53% | 22.53% | 22.53% |
EBIAT | 6,464.49 | 6,421.36 | 3,383.73 | 6,874.99 | 7,753.04 | 7,178.16 | 7,440.08 | 7,711.56 | 7,992.95 | 8,284.60 |
Depreciation | 2,766 | 2,577 | 2,432 | 2,352 | 2,219 | 2,958.85 | 3,066.81 | 3,178.72 | 3,294.71 | 3,414.93 |
Accounts Receivable | - | -452 | 1,124 | -595 | -494 | -3,014.47 | -762.01 | -789.82 | -818.64 | -848.51 |
Inventories | - | 263 | -136 | -2,636 | -2,232 | 964.82 | -558.47 | -578.85 | -599.97 | -621.86 |
Accounts Payable | - | -1,094 | 171 | 2,026 | 535 | -157.44 | 311.31 | 322.67 | 334.44 | 346.64 |
Capital Expenditure | -2,916 | -2,669 | -2,115 | -2,472 | -2,599 | -3,027.92 | -3,138.40 | -3,252.92 | -3,371.61 | -3,494.64 |
UFCF | 6,314.49 | 5,046.36 | 4,859.72 | 5,549.99 | 5,182.04 | 4,902 | 6,359.32 | 6,591.36 | 6,831.88 | 7,081.16 |
WACC | ||||||||||
PV UFCF | 4,543.09 | 5,462.20 | 5,247 | 5,040.27 | 4,841.69 | |||||
SUM PV UFCF | 25,134.26 |
Terminal Value
Growth in perpetuity method: | |
---|---|
Long-term growth rate | |
WACC (%) | 7.90 |
Free cash flow (t + 1) | 7,222.79 |
Terminal Value | 122,420.10 |
Present Value of Terminal Value | 83,703.86 |
Intrinsic Value
Enterprise Value | 108,838.13 |
---|---|
Net Debt | 29,989 |
Equity Value | 78,849.13 |
Shares Outstanding | 548.50 |
Equity Value Per Share | 143.75 |