Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Chubb Limited (CB)

$225.08

+0.09 (+0.04%)

All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD

Stock DCF: 445.75 | 225.08 | undervalue

Operating Data

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Revenue	32,717	34,230	35,994	40,963	43,124	46,235.23	49,570.92	53,147.27	56,981.64	61,092.65
Revenue (%)
EBITDA	5,637	5,554	4,452	10,103	7,423	8,109.72	8,694.81	9,322.11	9,994.66	10,715.74
EBITDA (%)
EBIT	5,298	5,249	4,162	9,816	7,138	7,731.11	8,288.88	8,886.90	9,528.05	10,215.46
EBIT (%)
Depreciation	339	305	290	287	285	378.61	405.93	435.21	466.61	500.27
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Total Cash	82,733	1,537	1,747	1,659	2,012	25,053.40	26,860.90	28,798.81	30,876.54	33,104.16
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables	26,068	25,538	26,072	28,688	30,834	34,052.55	36,509.31	39,143.32	41,967.36	44,995.14
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories	202	211.34	222.23	252.91	266.25	285.46	306.06	328.14	351.81	377.20
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable	18,327	17,957	20,760	22,247	23,382	25,400.09	27,232.60	29,197.33	31,303.80	33,562.25
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure	980	1,390	907	1,421	1,406.38	1,507.85	1,616.63	1,733.27	1,858.31	1,992.38
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price	$ 225.08
Beta	0.616
Diluted Shares Outstanding	423.53
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate	19.11
After-tax Cost of Debt	3.41%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity	7.127
Total Debt	14,877
Total Equity	95,327.56
Total Capital	110,204.56
Debt Weighting	13.50
Equity Weighting	86.50
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Revenue	32,717	34,230	35,994	40,963	43,124	46,235.23	49,570.92	53,147.27	56,981.64	61,092.65
EBITDA	5,637	5,554	4,452	10,103	7,423	8,109.72	8,694.81	9,322.11	9,994.66	10,715.74
EBIT	5,298	5,249	4,162	9,816	7,138	7,731.11	8,288.88	8,886.90	9,528.05	10,215.46
Tax Rate	14.92%	15.15%	15.11%	13.01%	19.11%	15.46%	15.46%	15.46%	15.46%	15.46%
EBIAT	4,507.34	4,454	3,533	8,539	5,774.09	6,535.89	7,007.43	7,512.99	8,055.02	8,636.16
Depreciation	339	305	290	287	285	378.61	405.93	435.21	466.61	500.27
Accounts Receivable	-	530	-534	-2,616	-2,146	-3,218.55	-2,456.76	-2,634.01	-2,824.04	-3,027.78
Inventories	-	-9.34	-10.89	-30.68	-13.34	-19.21	-20.60	-22.08	-23.67	-25.38
Accounts Payable	-	-370	2,803	1,487	1,135	2,018.09	1,832.52	1,964.73	2,106.47	2,258.45
Capital Expenditure	980	1,390	907	1,421	1,406.38	1,507.85	1,616.63	1,733.27	1,858.31	1,992.38
UFCF	5,826.34	6,299.66	6,988.11	9,087.32	6,441.12	7,202.67	8,385.15	8,990.11	9,638.71	10,334.10
WACC
PV UFCF						6,754.82	7,374.83	7,415.26	7,455.92	7,496.80
SUM PV UFCF										36,497.63

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%)	6.63
Free cash flow (t + 1)	10,540.78
Terminal Value	227,662.74
Present Value of Terminal Value	165,156.21

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value	201,653.84
Net Debt	12,865
Equity Value	188,788.84
Shares Outstanding	423.53
Equity Value Per Share	445.75