Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Cracker Barrel Old Country Store, I... (CBRL)

$72.36

+5.23 (+7.79%)

All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD

Stock DCF: 53.58 | 72.36 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year A/P	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Actual	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected	2028 Projected
Revenue	3,071.95	2,522.79	2,821.44	3,267.79	3,442.81	3,573.09	3,708.31	3,848.64	3,994.29	4,145.45
Revenue (%)
EBITDA	390.38	174.33	270.28	269.31	251.84	319.82	331.92	344.48	357.52	371.05
EBITDA (%)
EBIT	282.84	56.15	148.94	153	134.62	180.83	187.67	194.77	202.14	209.79
EBIT (%)
Depreciation	107.54	118.18	121.34	116.30	117.22	138.99	144.25	149.71	155.37	161.25
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year A/P	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Actual	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected	2028 Projected
Total Cash	36.88	437	144.59	45.10	25.15	184.07	191.04	198.27	205.77	213.56
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables	22.76	20.16	27.37	32.25	30.45	31.31	32.49	33.72	35	36.32
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories	154.96	139.09	138.32	213.25	189.36	196.42	203.85	211.57	219.58	227.88
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable	132.22	103.50	135.18	169.87	165.48	165.81	172.09	178.60	185.36	192.37
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure	-137.54	-296.01	-70.13	-97.10	-125.39	-180.87	-187.71	-194.82	-202.19	-209.84
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price	$ 72.36
Beta	1.461
Diluted Shares Outstanding	22.27
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate	4.40
After-tax Cost of Debt	3.97%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity	11.052
Total Debt	1,117.32
Total Equity	1,611.12
Total Capital	2,728.44
Debt Weighting	40.95
Equity Weighting	59.05
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year A/P	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Actual	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected	2028 Projected
Revenue	3,071.95	2,522.79	2,821.44	3,267.79	3,442.81	3,573.09	3,708.31	3,848.64	3,994.29	4,145.45
EBITDA	390.38	174.33	270.28	269.31	251.84	319.82	331.92	344.48	357.52	371.05
EBIT	282.84	56.15	148.94	153	134.62	180.83	187.67	194.77	202.14	209.79
Tax Rate	16.13%	-35.29%	18.04%	8.02%	4.40%	2.26%	2.26%	2.26%	2.26%	2.26%
EBIAT	237.23	75.97	122.06	140.73	128.69	176.74	183.43	190.37	197.57	205.05
Depreciation	107.54	118.18	121.34	116.30	117.22	138.99	144.25	149.71	155.37	161.25
Accounts Receivable	-	2.60	-7.22	-4.87	1.80	-0.86	-1.18	-1.23	-1.28	-1.32
Inventories	-	15.87	0.77	-74.93	23.89	-7.06	-7.43	-7.71	-8.01	-8.31
Accounts Payable	-	-28.72	31.67	34.69	-4.39	0.33	6.27	6.51	6.76	7.01
Capital Expenditure	-137.54	-296.01	-70.13	-97.10	-125.39	-180.87	-187.71	-194.82	-202.19	-209.84
UFCF	207.23	-112.11	198.50	114.82	141.82	127.27	137.62	142.83	148.23	153.84
WACC
PV UFCF						117.68	117.66	112.91	108.35	103.98
SUM PV UFCF										560.58

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%)	8.15
Free cash flow (t + 1)	156.92
Terminal Value	2,551.53
Present Value of Terminal Value	1,724.52

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value	2,285.09
Net Debt	1,092.17
Equity Value	1,192.92
Shares Outstanding	22.27
Equity Value Per Share	53.58