Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Cameco Corporation (CCJ)

$26.17

-0.07 (-0.27%)

All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD

Stock DCF: 11.02 | 26.17 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Revenue	2,091.66	1,862.93	1,800.07	1,474.98	1,868	1,841.27	1,814.93	1,788.96	1,763.36	1,738.13
Revenue (%)
EBITDA	464.71	494.75	226.90	147.35	331.33	328.14	323.45	318.82	314.26	309.76
EBITDA (%)
EBIT	136.74	219	18.24	-43.07	153.95	90.69	89.40	88.12	86.86	85.61
EBIT (%)
Depreciation	327.97	275.75	208.66	190.42	177.38	237.45	234.05	230.70	227.40	224.15
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Total Cash	1,102.55	1,062.43	943.37	1,332.35	2,042.85	1,332.49	1,313.42	1,294.63	1,276.11	1,257.85
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables	423.17	338.28	231.88	304.34	217.18	307.61	303.21	298.87	294.59	290.37
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories	557	406.27	769.80	504.86	822.61	624.07	615.14	606.34	597.67	589.11
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable	124.39	100.41	137.19	213.38	249.96	172.36	169.90	167.47	165.07	162.71
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure	-55.36	-75.21	-77.46	-98.78	-143.45	-93.40	-92.07	-90.75	-89.45	-88.17
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price	$ 26.17
Beta	0.949
Diluted Shares Outstanding	407.13
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate	-5.41
After-tax Cost of Debt	6.92%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity	7.974
Total Debt	997
Total Equity	10,654.72
Total Capital	11,651.72
Debt Weighting	8.56
Equity Weighting	91.44
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Revenue	2,091.66	1,862.93	1,800.07	1,474.98	1,868	1,841.27	1,814.93	1,788.96	1,763.36	1,738.13
EBITDA	464.71	494.75	226.90	147.35	331.33	328.14	323.45	318.82	314.26	309.76
EBIT	136.74	219	18.24	-43.07	153.95	90.69	89.40	88.12	86.86	85.61
Tax Rate	-316.55%	45.19%	-34.50%	1.23%	-5.41%	-62.01%	-62.01%	-62.01%	-62.01%	-62.01%
EBIAT	569.57	120.03	24.53	-42.54	162.28	146.93	144.83	142.76	140.71	138.70
Depreciation	327.97	275.75	208.66	190.42	177.38	237.45	234.05	230.70	227.40	224.15
Accounts Receivable	-	84.90	106.40	-72.46	87.16	-90.43	4.40	4.34	4.28	4.22
Inventories	-	150.73	-363.52	264.93	-317.75	198.54	8.93	8.80	8.68	8.55
Accounts Payable	-	-23.98	36.78	76.19	36.59	-77.60	-2.47	-2.43	-2.40	-2.36
Capital Expenditure	-55.36	-75.21	-77.46	-98.78	-143.45	-93.40	-92.07	-90.75	-89.45	-88.17
UFCF	842.18	532.21	-64.61	317.76	2.20	321.48	297.67	293.42	289.22	285.08
WACC
PV UFCF						298	255.78	233.70	213.53	195.10
SUM PV UFCF										1,196.11

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%)	7.88
Free cash flow (t + 1)	290.78
Terminal Value	4,945.24
Present Value of Terminal Value	3,384.41

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value	4,580.52
Net Debt	92.33
Equity Value	4,488.19
Shares Outstanding	407.13
Equity Value Per Share	11.02