Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Crown Holdings, Inc. (CCK)

$86.475

-1.54 (-1.74%)

All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD

Stock DCF: 37.04 | 86.475 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year A/P	2017 Actual	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Projected	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected
Revenue	8,698	11,151	11,665	11,575	11,394	12,262.11	13,196.36	14,201.80	15,283.84	16,448.31
Revenue (%)
EBITDA	1,223	1,464	1,544	1,604	99	1,352.56	1,455.61	1,566.52	1,685.87	1,814.32
EBITDA (%)
EBIT	976	1,039	1,054	1,123	-364	884.87	952.29	1,024.84	1,102.92	1,186.96
EBIT (%)
Depreciation	247	425	490	481	463	467.69	503.33	541.68	582.95	627.36
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year A/P	2017 Actual	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Projected	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected
Total Cash	424	607	607	1,173	531	743.48	800.12	861.08	926.69	997.29
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables	1,041	1,602	1,528	1,783	1,889	1,751.43	1,884.88	2,028.49	2,183.04	2,349.36
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories	1,385	1,690	1,626	1,673	1,735	1,831.93	1,971.51	2,121.71	2,283.37	2,457.34
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable	2,367	2,732	2,646	2,845	2,819.31	3,034.11	3,265.28	3,514.07	3,781.80	4,069.94
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure	-498	-462	-432	-587	-816	-632.85	-681.06	-732.95	-788.80	-848.89
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price	$ 86.475
Beta	1.077
Diluted Shares Outstanding	131.35
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate	-33.65
After-tax Cost of Debt	4.04%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity	8.745
Total Debt	6,262
Total Equity	11,358.32
Total Capital	17,620.32
Debt Weighting	35.54
Equity Weighting	64.46
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year A/P	2017 Actual	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Projected	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected
Revenue	8,698	11,151	11,665	11,575	11,394	12,262.11	13,196.36	14,201.80	15,283.84	16,448.31
EBITDA	1,223	1,464	1,544	1,604	99	1,352.56	1,455.61	1,566.52	1,685.87	1,814.32
EBIT	976	1,039	1,054	1,123	-364	884.87	952.29	1,024.84	1,102.92	1,186.96
Tax Rate	61.04%	40.68%	35.11%	37.47%	-33.65%	28.13%	28.13%	28.13%	28.13%	28.13%
EBIAT	380.28	616.38	683.89	702.18	-486.49	635.96	684.41	736.56	792.67	853.07
Depreciation	247	425	490	481	463	467.69	503.33	541.68	582.95	627.36
Accounts Receivable	-	-561	74	-255	-106	137.57	-133.44	-143.61	-154.55	-166.33
Inventories	-	-305	64	-47	-62	-96.93	-139.58	-150.21	-161.65	-173.97
Accounts Payable	-	365	-86	199	-25.69	214.80	231.17	248.78	267.74	288.14
Capital Expenditure	-498	-462	-432	-587	-816	-632.85	-681.06	-732.95	-788.80	-848.89
UFCF	129.28	78.38	793.89	493.18	-1,033.18	726.24	464.83	500.24	538.36	579.37
WACC
PV UFCF						678.29	405.47	407.55	409.64	411.74
SUM PV UFCF										2,312.68

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%)	7.07
Free cash flow (t + 1)	590.96
Terminal Value	11,656.06
Present Value of Terminal Value	8,283.48

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value	10,596.16
Net Debt	5,731
Equity Value	4,865.16
Shares Outstanding	131.35
Equity Value Per Share	37.04