Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Crown Holdings, Inc. (CCK)

$86.475

-1.54 (-1.74%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 37.04 | 86.475 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 8,69811,15111,66511,57511,39412,262.1113,196.3614,201.8015,283.8416,448.31
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 1,2231,4641,5441,604991,352.561,455.611,566.521,685.871,814.32
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 9761,0391,0541,123-364884.87952.291,024.841,102.921,186.96
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 247425490481463467.69503.33541.68582.95627.36
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 4246076071,173531743.48800.12861.08926.69997.29
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 1,0411,6021,5281,7831,8891,751.431,884.882,028.492,183.042,349.36
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 1,3851,6901,6261,6731,7351,831.931,971.512,121.712,283.372,457.34
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 2,3672,7322,6462,8452,819.313,034.113,265.283,514.073,781.804,069.94
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -498-462-432-587-816-632.85-681.06-732.95-788.80-848.89
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 86.475
Beta 1.077
Diluted Shares Outstanding 131.35
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate -33.65
After-tax Cost of Debt 4.04%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 8.745
Total Debt 6,262
Total Equity 11,358.32
Total Capital 17,620.32
Debt Weighting 35.54
Equity Weighting 64.46
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 8,69811,15111,66511,57511,39412,262.1113,196.3614,201.8015,283.8416,448.31
EBITDA 1,2231,4641,5441,604991,352.561,455.611,566.521,685.871,814.32
EBIT 9761,0391,0541,123-364884.87952.291,024.841,102.921,186.96
Tax Rate 61.04%40.68%35.11%37.47%-33.65%28.13%28.13%28.13%28.13%28.13%
EBIAT 380.28616.38683.89702.18-486.49635.96684.41736.56792.67853.07
Depreciation 247425490481463467.69503.33541.68582.95627.36
Accounts Receivable --56174-255-106137.57-133.44-143.61-154.55-166.33
Inventories --30564-47-62-96.93-139.58-150.21-161.65-173.97
Accounts Payable -365-86199-25.69214.80231.17248.78267.74288.14
Capital Expenditure -498-462-432-587-816-632.85-681.06-732.95-788.80-848.89
UFCF 129.2878.38793.89493.18-1,033.18726.24464.83500.24538.36579.37
WACC
PV UFCF 678.29405.47407.55409.64411.74
SUM PV UFCF 2,312.68

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 7.07
Free cash flow (t + 1) 590.96
Terminal Value 11,656.06
Present Value of Terminal Value 8,283.48

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 10,596.16
Net Debt 5,731
Equity Value 4,865.16
Shares Outstanding 131.35
Equity Value Per Share 37.04