Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Carnival Corporation & plc (CCL)

$14.545

-0.10 (-0.72%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: -5,463.50 | 14.545 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 18,88120,8255,5941,90812,16924,613.4549,784.05100,694.99203,669.26411,948.71
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 5,3595,426-5,150-4,427-1,755-13,983.87-28,284.27-57,208.77-115,712.50-234,044.22
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 3,3423,266-7,391-6,660-4,030-23,673.90-47,883.67-96,851.22-195,894.73-396,223.66
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 2,0172,1602,2412,2332,2759,690.0319,599.4039,642.4580,182.23162,179.44
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Total Cash 9825189,5139,1394,02933,958.5768,685.81138,926.36280,997.41568,355.36
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 358444273246663.251,341.522,713.415,488.2411,100.7122,452.70
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 4504273353564281,604.693,245.696,564.8613,278.3226,857.19
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 7307566247971,0503,399.186,875.3113,906.2528,127.2856,891.23
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -3,749-5,429-3,620-3,607-4,940-16,750.87-33,880.91-68,528.74-138,608.68-280,354.85
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 14.545
Beta 2.393
Diluted Shares Outstanding 1,180
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate -0.23
After-tax Cost of Debt 4.48%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 15.770
Total Debt 35,881
Total Equity 17,163.10
Total Capital 53,044.10
Debt Weighting 67.64
Equity Weighting 32.36
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 18,88120,8255,5941,90812,16924,613.4549,784.05100,694.99203,669.26411,948.71
EBITDA 5,3595,426-5,150-4,427-1,755-13,983.87-28,284.27-57,208.77-115,712.50-234,044.22
EBIT 3,3423,266-7,391-6,660-4,030-23,673.90-47,883.67-96,851.22-195,894.73-396,223.66
Tax Rate 1.71%2.29%0.17%0.22%-0.23%0.83%0.83%0.83%0.83%0.83%
EBIAT 3,284.683,191.29-7,378.75-6,645.31-4,039.28-23,477-47,485.41-96,045.68-194,265.41-392,928.14
Depreciation 2,0172,1602,2412,2332,2759,690.0319,599.4039,642.4580,182.23162,179.44
Accounts Receivable --8617127-417.25-678.27-1,371.89-2,774.83-5,612.47-11,351.98
Inventories -2392-21-72-1,176.69-1,641.01-3,319.16-6,713.46-13,578.88
Accounts Payable -26-1321732532,349.183,476.137,030.9414,221.0328,763.95
Capital Expenditure -3,749-5,429-3,620-3,607-4,940-16,750.87-33,880.91-68,528.74-138,608.68-280,354.85
UFCF 1,552.68-114.71-8,626.75-7,840.31-6,940.53-30,043.61-61,303.69-123,995.03-250,796.76-507,270.46
WACC
PV UFCF -27,784.71-52,431.73-98,076.66-183,458.19-343,169.40
SUM PV UFCF -704,920.70

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 8.13
Free cash flow (t + 1) -517,415.87
Terminal Value -8,440,715.62
Present Value of Terminal Value -5,710,159.68

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value -6,415,080.38
Net Debt 31,852
Equity Value -6,446,932.38
Shares Outstanding 1,180
Equity Value Per Share -5,463.50