Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Carnival Corporation & plc (CCL)
$14.76
+0.14 (+0.96%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
Revenue | 18,881 | 20,825 | 5,594 | 1,908 | 12,169 | 24,613.45 | 49,784.05 | 100,694.99 | 203,669.26 | 411,948.71 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
EBITDA | 5,359 | 5,426 | -5,150 | -4,427 | -1,755 | -13,983.87 | -28,284.27 | -57,208.77 | -115,712.50 | -234,044.22 |
EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
EBIT | 3,342 | 3,266 | -7,391 | -6,660 | -4,030 | -23,673.90 | -47,883.67 | -96,851.22 | -195,894.73 | -396,223.66 |
EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
Depreciation | 2,017 | 2,160 | 2,241 | 2,233 | 2,275 | 9,690.03 | 19,599.40 | 39,642.45 | 80,182.23 | 162,179.44 |
Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
Total Cash | 982 | 518 | 9,513 | 9,139 | 4,029 | 33,958.57 | 68,685.81 | 138,926.36 | 280,997.41 | 568,355.36 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
Account Receivables | 358 | 444 | 273 | 246 | 663.25 | 1,341.52 | 2,713.41 | 5,488.24 | 11,100.71 | 22,452.70 |
Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
Inventories | 450 | 427 | 335 | 356 | 428 | 1,604.69 | 3,245.69 | 6,564.86 | 13,278.32 | 26,857.19 |
Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
Accounts Payable | 730 | 756 | 624 | 797 | 1,050 | 3,399.18 | 6,875.31 | 13,906.25 | 28,127.28 | 56,891.23 |
Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
Capital Expenditure | -3,749 | -5,429 | -3,620 | -3,607 | -4,940 | -16,750.87 | -33,880.91 | -68,528.74 | -138,608.68 | -280,354.85 |
Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
Share price | $ 14.76 |
---|---|
Beta | 2.455 |
Diluted Shares Outstanding | 1,180 |
Cost of Debt | |
Tax Rate | -0.23 |
After-tax Cost of Debt | 4.48% |
Risk-Free Rate | |
Market Risk Premium | |
Cost of Equity | 15.923 |
Total Debt | 35,881 |
Total Equity | 17,416.80 |
Total Capital | 53,297.80 |
Debt Weighting | 67.32 |
Equity Weighting | 32.68 |
Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
Revenue | 18,881 | 20,825 | 5,594 | 1,908 | 12,169 | 24,613.45 | 49,784.05 | 100,694.99 | 203,669.26 | 411,948.71 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
EBITDA | 5,359 | 5,426 | -5,150 | -4,427 | -1,755 | -13,983.87 | -28,284.27 | -57,208.77 | -115,712.50 | -234,044.22 |
EBIT | 3,342 | 3,266 | -7,391 | -6,660 | -4,030 | -23,673.90 | -47,883.67 | -96,851.22 | -195,894.73 | -396,223.66 |
Tax Rate | 1.71% | 2.29% | 0.17% | 0.22% | -0.23% | 0.83% | 0.83% | 0.83% | 0.83% | 0.83% |
EBIAT | 3,284.68 | 3,191.29 | -7,378.75 | -6,645.31 | -4,039.28 | -23,477 | -47,485.41 | -96,045.68 | -194,265.41 | -392,928.14 |
Depreciation | 2,017 | 2,160 | 2,241 | 2,233 | 2,275 | 9,690.03 | 19,599.40 | 39,642.45 | 80,182.23 | 162,179.44 |
Accounts Receivable | - | -86 | 171 | 27 | -417.25 | -678.27 | -1,371.89 | -2,774.83 | -5,612.47 | -11,351.98 |
Inventories | - | 23 | 92 | -21 | -72 | -1,176.69 | -1,641.01 | -3,319.16 | -6,713.46 | -13,578.88 |
Accounts Payable | - | 26 | -132 | 173 | 253 | 2,349.18 | 3,476.13 | 7,030.94 | 14,221.03 | 28,763.95 |
Capital Expenditure | -3,749 | -5,429 | -3,620 | -3,607 | -4,940 | -16,750.87 | -33,880.91 | -68,528.74 | -138,608.68 | -280,354.85 |
UFCF | 1,552.68 | -114.71 | -8,626.75 | -7,840.31 | -6,940.53 | -30,043.61 | -61,303.69 | -123,995.03 | -250,796.76 | -507,270.46 |
WACC | ||||||||||
PV UFCF | -27,761.60 | -52,344.56 | -97,832.17 | -182,848.67 | -341,744.81 | |||||
SUM PV UFCF | -702,531.81 |
Terminal Value
Growth in perpetuity method: | |
---|---|
Long-term growth rate | |
WACC (%) | 8.22 |
Free cash flow (t + 1) | -517,415.87 |
Terminal Value | -8,318,583.08 |
Present Value of Terminal Value | -5,604,175.28 |
Intrinsic Value
Enterprise Value | -6,306,707.09 |
---|---|
Net Debt | 31,852 |
Equity Value | -6,338,559.09 |
Shares Outstanding | 1,180 |
Equity Value Per Share | -5,371.66 |