Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Carnival Corporation & plc (CCL)

$14.76

+0.14 (+0.96%)

All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD

Stock DCF: -5,371.66 | 14.76 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Revenue	18,881	20,825	5,594	1,908	12,169	24,613.45	49,784.05	100,694.99	203,669.26	411,948.71
Revenue (%)
EBITDA	5,359	5,426	-5,150	-4,427	-1,755	-13,983.87	-28,284.27	-57,208.77	-115,712.50	-234,044.22
EBITDA (%)
EBIT	3,342	3,266	-7,391	-6,660	-4,030	-23,673.90	-47,883.67	-96,851.22	-195,894.73	-396,223.66
EBIT (%)
Depreciation	2,017	2,160	2,241	2,233	2,275	9,690.03	19,599.40	39,642.45	80,182.23	162,179.44
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Total Cash	982	518	9,513	9,139	4,029	33,958.57	68,685.81	138,926.36	280,997.41	568,355.36
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables	358	444	273	246	663.25	1,341.52	2,713.41	5,488.24	11,100.71	22,452.70
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories	450	427	335	356	428	1,604.69	3,245.69	6,564.86	13,278.32	26,857.19
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable	730	756	624	797	1,050	3,399.18	6,875.31	13,906.25	28,127.28	56,891.23
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure	-3,749	-5,429	-3,620	-3,607	-4,940	-16,750.87	-33,880.91	-68,528.74	-138,608.68	-280,354.85
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price	$ 14.76
Beta	2.455
Diluted Shares Outstanding	1,180
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate	-0.23
After-tax Cost of Debt	4.48%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity	15.923
Total Debt	35,881
Total Equity	17,416.80
Total Capital	53,297.80
Debt Weighting	67.32
Equity Weighting	32.68
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Revenue	18,881	20,825	5,594	1,908	12,169	24,613.45	49,784.05	100,694.99	203,669.26	411,948.71
EBITDA	5,359	5,426	-5,150	-4,427	-1,755	-13,983.87	-28,284.27	-57,208.77	-115,712.50	-234,044.22
EBIT	3,342	3,266	-7,391	-6,660	-4,030	-23,673.90	-47,883.67	-96,851.22	-195,894.73	-396,223.66
Tax Rate	1.71%	2.29%	0.17%	0.22%	-0.23%	0.83%	0.83%	0.83%	0.83%	0.83%
EBIAT	3,284.68	3,191.29	-7,378.75	-6,645.31	-4,039.28	-23,477	-47,485.41	-96,045.68	-194,265.41	-392,928.14
Depreciation	2,017	2,160	2,241	2,233	2,275	9,690.03	19,599.40	39,642.45	80,182.23	162,179.44
Accounts Receivable	-	-86	171	27	-417.25	-678.27	-1,371.89	-2,774.83	-5,612.47	-11,351.98
Inventories	-	23	92	-21	-72	-1,176.69	-1,641.01	-3,319.16	-6,713.46	-13,578.88
Accounts Payable	-	26	-132	173	253	2,349.18	3,476.13	7,030.94	14,221.03	28,763.95
Capital Expenditure	-3,749	-5,429	-3,620	-3,607	-4,940	-16,750.87	-33,880.91	-68,528.74	-138,608.68	-280,354.85
UFCF	1,552.68	-114.71	-8,626.75	-7,840.31	-6,940.53	-30,043.61	-61,303.69	-123,995.03	-250,796.76	-507,270.46
WACC
PV UFCF						-27,761.60	-52,344.56	-97,832.17	-182,848.67	-341,744.81
SUM PV UFCF										-702,531.81

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%)	8.22
Free cash flow (t + 1)	-517,415.87
Terminal Value	-8,318,583.08
Present Value of Terminal Value	-5,604,175.28

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value	-6,306,707.09
Net Debt	31,852
Equity Value	-6,338,559.09
Shares Outstanding	1,180
Equity Value Per Share	-5,371.66