Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

CCL Industries Inc. (CCL-B.TO)

$63.78

-0.29 (-0.45%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 90.90 | 63.78 | undervalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 4,755.705,161.505,321.305,242.305,732.806,012.296,305.406,612.806,935.197,273.30
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 948.60993.701,059.601,114.201,187.601,215.461,274.711,336.861,402.031,470.39
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 689.40715.70730767.80845.20859.40901.30945.24991.321,039.65
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 259.20278329.60346.40342.40356.06373.42391.62410.71430.74
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 550.20581695.20700.30594.10716.81751.75788.40826.84867.15
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 834.40976.70883.20951.801,121.701,091.691,144.911,200.731,259.261,320.66
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 425.10524.60481.60533.50677.30602.96632.36663.19695.52729.43
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 551.70673577.20633.20782.20736.02771.90809.53849890.39
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -285.70-352.90-345.60-282.80-323.80-365.33-383.14-401.82-421.41-441.96
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 63.78
Beta 0.550
Diluted Shares Outstanding 179.80
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 23.25
After-tax Cost of Debt 2.68%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 6.316
Total Debt 1,851.30
Total Equity 11,467.64
Total Capital 13,318.94
Debt Weighting 13.90
Equity Weighting 86.10
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 4,755.705,161.505,321.305,242.305,732.806,012.296,305.406,612.806,935.197,273.30
EBITDA 948.60993.701,059.601,114.201,187.601,215.461,274.711,336.861,402.031,470.39
EBIT 689.40715.70730767.80845.20859.40901.30945.24991.321,039.65
Tax Rate 21.25%25.05%25.10%23.62%23.25%23.65%23.65%23.65%23.65%23.65%
EBIAT 542.93536.43546.76586.45648.68656.12688.11721.66756.84793.74
Depreciation 259.20278329.60346.40342.40356.06373.42391.62410.71430.74
Accounts Receivable --142.3093.50-68.60-169.9030.01-53.22-55.82-58.54-61.39
Inventories --99.5043-51.90-143.8074.34-29.40-30.83-32.33-33.91
Accounts Payable -121.30-95.8056149-46.1835.8837.6339.4741.39
Capital Expenditure -285.70-352.90-345.60-282.80-323.80-365.33-383.14-401.82-421.41-441.96
UFCF 516.43341.03571.46585.55502.58705.02631.65662.44694.74728.61
WACC
PV UFCF 666.31564.19559.20554.26549.36
SUM PV UFCF 2,893.32

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 5.81
Free cash flow (t + 1) 743.18
Terminal Value 19,506.03
Present Value of Terminal Value 14,707.38

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 17,600.70
Net Debt 1,257.20
Equity Value 16,343.50
Shares Outstanding 179.80
Equity Value Per Share 90.90