Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Avid Bioservices, Inc. (CDMOP)

$25.06

+0.01 (+0.04%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: -5.41 | 25.06 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 57.6353.6253.6059.7095.87111.44129.54150.58175.03203.46
Revenue (%)
EBITDA -25.70-19.25-1.75-7.3815.83-17.74-20.62-23.97-27.87-32.39
EBITDA (%)
EBIT -28.16-21.81-4.50-10.4712.38-22.86-26.57-30.88-35.90-41.73
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 2.462.562.753.093.455.125.956.918.049.34
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 46.8042.2632.3536.26169.91102.16118.75138.04160.45186.51
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 7.743.7511.7011.9124.9519.6722.8626.5730.8935.90
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 33.1016.136.5610.8811.8729.0533.7739.2645.6353.04
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 5.781.914.355.939.269.2010.7012.4314.4516.80
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -1.50-3.02-1.50-3.81-9.86-6.18-7.18-8.35-9.70-11.28
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 25.06
Beta 2.696
Diluted Shares Outstanding 56.52
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 0.00
After-tax Cost of Debt 0.98%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 15.470
Total Debt 118.19
Total Equity 1,416.47
Total Capital 1,534.66
Debt Weighting 7.70
Equity Weighting 92.30
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 57.6353.6253.6059.7095.87111.44129.54150.58175.03203.46
EBITDA -25.70-19.25-1.75-7.3815.83-17.74-20.62-23.97-27.87-32.39
EBIT -28.16-21.81-4.50-10.4712.38-22.86-26.57-30.88-35.90-41.73
Tax Rate 0.00%-6.08%21.07%0.00%0.00%3.00%3.00%3.00%3.00%3.00%
EBIAT -28.16-23.14-3.55-10.4712.38-22.17-25.77-29.96-34.82-40.48
Depreciation 2.462.562.753.093.455.125.956.918.049.34
Accounts Receivable -3.99-7.95-0.20-13.055.29-3.19-3.71-4.32-5.02
Inventories -16.979.57-4.33-0.99-17.18-4.72-5.49-6.38-7.41
Accounts Payable --3.872.441.573.33-0.051.491.742.022.35
Capital Expenditure -1.50-3.02-1.50-3.81-9.86-6.18-7.18-8.35-9.70-11.28
UFCF -27.20-6.511.76-14.14-4.74-35.18-33.42-38.85-45.16-52.50
WACC
PV UFCF -30.77-25.56-25.98-26.41-26.85
SUM PV UFCF -135.58

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 14.35
Free cash flow (t + 1) -53.55
Terminal Value -433.58
Present Value of Terminal Value -221.76

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value -357.34
Net Debt -51.72
Equity Value -305.62
Shares Outstanding 56.52
Equity Value Per Share -5.41