Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Avid Bioservices, Inc. (CDMOP)
$25.06
+0.01 (+0.04%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Revenue | 57.63 | 53.62 | 53.60 | 59.70 | 95.87 | 111.44 | 129.54 | 150.58 | 175.03 | 203.46 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| EBITDA | -25.70 | -19.25 | -1.75 | -7.38 | 15.83 | -17.74 | -20.62 | -23.97 | -27.87 | -32.39 |
| EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
| EBIT | -28.16 | -21.81 | -4.50 | -10.47 | 12.38 | -22.86 | -26.57 | -30.88 | -35.90 | -41.73 |
| EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
| Depreciation | 2.46 | 2.56 | 2.75 | 3.09 | 3.45 | 5.12 | 5.95 | 6.91 | 8.04 | 9.34 |
| Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Total Cash | 46.80 | 42.26 | 32.35 | 36.26 | 169.91 | 102.16 | 118.75 | 138.04 | 160.45 | 186.51 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
| Account Receivables | 7.74 | 3.75 | 11.70 | 11.91 | 24.95 | 19.67 | 22.86 | 26.57 | 30.89 | 35.90 |
| Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
| Inventories | 33.10 | 16.13 | 6.56 | 10.88 | 11.87 | 29.05 | 33.77 | 39.26 | 45.63 | 53.04 |
| Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
| Accounts Payable | 5.78 | 1.91 | 4.35 | 5.93 | 9.26 | 9.20 | 10.70 | 12.43 | 14.45 | 16.80 |
| Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -1.50 | -3.02 | -1.50 | -3.81 | -9.86 | -6.18 | -7.18 | -8.35 | -9.70 | -11.28 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 25.06 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 2.696 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 56.52 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | 0.00 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 0.98% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 15.470 |
| Total Debt | 118.19 |
| Total Equity | 1,416.47 |
| Total Capital | 1,534.66 |
| Debt Weighting | 7.70 |
| Equity Weighting | 92.30 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Revenue | 57.63 | 53.62 | 53.60 | 59.70 | 95.87 | 111.44 | 129.54 | 150.58 | 175.03 | 203.46 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | -25.70 | -19.25 | -1.75 | -7.38 | 15.83 | -17.74 | -20.62 | -23.97 | -27.87 | -32.39 |
| EBIT | -28.16 | -21.81 | -4.50 | -10.47 | 12.38 | -22.86 | -26.57 | -30.88 | -35.90 | -41.73 |
| Tax Rate | 0.00% | -6.08% | 21.07% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 3.00% | 3.00% | 3.00% | 3.00% | 3.00% |
| EBIAT | -28.16 | -23.14 | -3.55 | -10.47 | 12.38 | -22.17 | -25.77 | -29.96 | -34.82 | -40.48 |
| Depreciation | 2.46 | 2.56 | 2.75 | 3.09 | 3.45 | 5.12 | 5.95 | 6.91 | 8.04 | 9.34 |
| Accounts Receivable | - | 3.99 | -7.95 | -0.20 | -13.05 | 5.29 | -3.19 | -3.71 | -4.32 | -5.02 |
| Inventories | - | 16.97 | 9.57 | -4.33 | -0.99 | -17.18 | -4.72 | -5.49 | -6.38 | -7.41 |
| Accounts Payable | - | -3.87 | 2.44 | 1.57 | 3.33 | -0.05 | 1.49 | 1.74 | 2.02 | 2.35 |
| Capital Expenditure | -1.50 | -3.02 | -1.50 | -3.81 | -9.86 | -6.18 | -7.18 | -8.35 | -9.70 | -11.28 |
| UFCF | -27.20 | -6.51 | 1.76 | -14.14 | -4.74 | -35.18 | -33.42 | -38.85 | -45.16 | -52.50 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV UFCF | -30.77 | -25.56 | -25.98 | -26.41 | -26.85 | |||||
| SUM PV UFCF | -135.58 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 14.35 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | -53.55 |
| Terminal Value | -433.58 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | -221.76 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | -357.34 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | -51.72 |
| Equity Value | -305.62 |
| Shares Outstanding | 56.52 |
| Equity Value Per Share | -5.41 |