Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Avid Bioservices, Inc. (CDMOP)

$25.06

+0.01 (+0.04%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: -23.47 | 25.06 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Actual
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
2028
Projected
Revenue 53.6059.7095.87119.60149.27194.61253.73330.81431.31562.33
Revenue (%)
EBITDA -5.62-10.2312.3815.344.600.470.610.791.031.35
EBITDA (%)
EBIT -8.37-13.328.9210.86-2.61-8.28-10.80-14.08-18.36-23.93
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 2.753.093.454.487.218.7511.4114.8719.3925.28
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Actual
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
2028
Projected
Total Cash 32.3536.26169.92126.1738.54167.23218.03284.26370.62483.21
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 11.7011.9124.9525.9227.9142.1054.8971.5793.31121.65
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 6.5610.8811.8726.0643.9136.6147.7362.2381.13105.78
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 4.355.939.269.5024.5920.2926.4534.4944.9658.62
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -1.50-3.81-9.86-56.41-77.64-46.18-60.21-78.51-102.36-133.45
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 25.06
Beta 2.696
Diluted Shares Outstanding 63.78
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 72.04
After-tax Cost of Debt 1.19%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 16.989
Total Debt 189.23
Total Equity 1,598.38
Total Capital 1,787.61
Debt Weighting 10.59
Equity Weighting 89.41
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Actual
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
2028
Projected
Revenue 53.6059.7095.87119.60149.27194.61253.73330.81431.31562.33
EBITDA -5.62-10.2312.3815.344.600.470.610.791.031.35
EBIT -8.37-13.328.9210.86-2.61-8.28-10.80-14.08-18.36-23.93
Tax Rate 21.07%30.67%0.00%-908.39%72.04%-156.92%-156.92%-156.92%-156.92%-156.92%
EBIAT -6.61-9.248.92109.52-0.73-21.28-27.75-36.17-47.16-61.49
Depreciation 2.753.093.454.487.218.7511.4114.8719.3925.28
Accounts Receivable --0.20-13.05-0.96-1.99-14.19-12.79-16.68-21.74-28.35
Inventories --4.33-0.99-14.19-17.857.30-11.12-14.50-18.90-24.65
Accounts Payable -1.573.330.2515.09-4.316.168.0410.4813.66
Capital Expenditure -1.50-3.81-9.86-56.41-77.64-46.18-60.21-78.51-102.36-133.45
UFCF -5.36-12.91-8.1942.68-75.90-69.91-94.30-122.95-160.30-208.99
WACC
PV UFCF -60.63-70.91-80.17-90.64-102.47
SUM PV UFCF -404.82

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 15.32
Free cash flow (t + 1) -217.35
Terminal Value -1,920.09
Present Value of Terminal Value -941.45

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value -1,346.27
Net Debt 150.69
Equity Value -1,496.96
Shares Outstanding 63.78
Equity Value Per Share -23.47