Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Avid Bioservices, Inc. (CDMOP)

$ 25.06
+0.01 (+0.04%)
Stock DCF: -7.89 | 25.06 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 57.6353.6253.6059.7095.87111.44129.54150.58175.03203.46
Revenue (%)
EBITDA -25.80-18.08-1.75-7.8515.83-17.47-20.31-23.60-27.44-31.89
EBITDA (%)
EBIT -28.26-20.64-4.50-10.9412.38-22.58-26.25-30.52-35.47-41.23
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 2.462.562.753.093.455.125.956.918.049.34
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 46.8042.2632.3536.26169.91102.16118.75138.04160.45186.51
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 7.743.7511.7011.9124.9519.6722.8626.5730.8935.90
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 33.1016.136.5610.8811.8729.0533.7739.2645.6353.04
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 5.781.914.355.939.269.2010.7012.4314.4516.80
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -1.50-3.02-1.50-3.81-9.86-6.18-7.18-8.35-9.70-11.28
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 25.06
Beta 2.696
Diluted Shares Outstanding 56.52
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 0.00
After-tax Cost of Debt 0.98%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 14.209
Total Debt 118.19
Total Equity 1,416.47
Total Capital 1,534.66
Debt Weighting 7.70
Equity Weighting 92.30
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 57.6353.6253.6059.7095.87111.44129.54150.58175.03203.46
EBITDA -25.80-18.08-1.75-7.8515.83-17.47-20.31-23.60-27.44-31.89
EBIT -28.26-20.64-4.50-10.9412.38-22.58-26.25-30.52-35.47-41.23
Tax Rate 0.00%-6.08%21.07%0.00%0.00%3.00%3.00%3.00%3.00%3.00%
EBIAT -28.26-21.89-3.55-10.9412.38-21.91-25.47-29.60-34.41-40
Depreciation 2.462.562.753.093.455.125.956.918.049.34
Accounts Receivable -3.99-7.95-0.20-13.055.29-3.19-3.71-4.32-5.02
Inventories -16.979.57-4.33-0.99-17.18-4.72-5.49-6.38-7.41
Accounts Payable --3.872.441.573.33-0.051.491.742.022.35
Capital Expenditure -1.50-3.02-1.50-3.81-9.86-6.18-7.18-8.35-9.70-11.28
UFCF -27.30-5.261.76-14.62-4.74-34.92-33.12-38.50-44.75-52.02
WACC
PV UFCF -30.85-25.85-26.55-27.26-28
SUM PV UFCF -138.50

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 13.19
Free cash flow (t + 1) -54.62
Terminal Value -666.86
Present Value of Terminal Value -358.92

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value -497.41
Net Debt -51.72
Equity Value -445.69
Shares Outstanding 56.52
Equity Value Per Share -7.89