Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
CropEnergies AG (CE2.DE)
12.24 €
+0.30 (+2.51%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 881.96 | 778.61 | 899.17 | 833.12 | 1,075.35 | 1,143.88 | 1,216.79 | 1,294.34 | 1,376.84 | 1,464.60 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| EBITDA | 110.06 | 82.61 | 144.11 | 149.78 | 167.31 | 166.21 | 176.81 | 188.08 | 200.06 | 212.81 |
| EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
| EBIT | 70.90 | 43.34 | 101.86 | 108.41 | 125.48 | 113.51 | 120.74 | 128.44 | 136.62 | 145.33 |
| EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
| Depreciation | 39.16 | 39.27 | 42.25 | 41.37 | 41.83 | 52.71 | 56.06 | 59.64 | 63.44 | 67.48 |
| Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Total Cash | 36.87 | 2.81 | 28.35 | 21 | 46.45 | 33.25 | 35.37 | 37.63 | 40.03 | 42.58 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
| Account Receivables | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
| Inventories | 66 | 78.73 | 66.56 | 73.16 | 107.95 | 100.25 | 106.63 | 113.43 | 120.66 | 128.35 |
| Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
| Accounts Payable | 55.49 | 49.15 | 54.19 | 59.37 | 101.80 | 80.59 | 85.72 | 91.19 | 97 | 103.18 |
| Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -19.50 | -13.22 | -29.88 | -28.83 | -35.77 | -32.07 | -34.12 | -36.29 | -38.61 | -41.07 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 12.24 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 0.776 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 87.25 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | 28.05 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 7.68% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 7.194 |
| Total Debt | 11.53 |
| Total Equity | 1,067.94 |
| Total Capital | 1,079.47 |
| Debt Weighting | 1.07 |
| Equity Weighting | 98.93 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 881.96 | 778.61 | 899.17 | 833.12 | 1,075.35 | 1,143.88 | 1,216.79 | 1,294.34 | 1,376.84 | 1,464.60 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | 110.06 | 82.61 | 144.11 | 149.78 | 167.31 | 166.21 | 176.81 | 188.08 | 200.06 | 212.81 |
| EBIT | 70.90 | 43.34 | 101.86 | 108.41 | 125.48 | 113.51 | 120.74 | 128.44 | 136.62 | 145.33 |
| Tax Rate | 27.23% | 50.03% | 26.00% | 20.95% | 28.05% | 30.45% | 30.45% | 30.45% | 30.45% | 30.45% |
| EBIAT | 51.59 | 21.66 | 75.38 | 85.69 | 90.29 | 78.94 | 83.97 | 89.33 | 95.02 | 101.08 |
| Depreciation | 39.16 | 39.27 | 42.25 | 41.37 | 41.83 | 52.71 | 56.06 | 59.64 | 63.44 | 67.48 |
| Accounts Receivable | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Inventories | - | -12.73 | 12.17 | -6.61 | -34.79 | 7.71 | -6.39 | -6.80 | -7.23 | -7.69 |
| Accounts Payable | - | -6.34 | 5.04 | 5.18 | 42.43 | -21.22 | 5.14 | 5.46 | 5.81 | 6.18 |
| Capital Expenditure | -19.50 | -13.22 | -29.88 | -28.83 | -35.77 | -32.07 | -34.12 | -36.29 | -38.61 | -41.07 |
| UFCF | 71.25 | 28.64 | 104.95 | 96.81 | 103.99 | 86.06 | 104.67 | 111.34 | 118.43 | 125.98 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV UFCF | 80.28 | 91.08 | 90.38 | 89.68 | 88.99 | |||||
| SUM PV UFCF | 440.41 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 7.20 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | 128.50 |
| Terminal Value | 2,471.21 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | 1,745.57 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | 2,185.98 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | -19.95 |
| Equity Value | 2,205.93 |
| Shares Outstanding | 87.25 |
| Equity Value Per Share | 25.28 |